Net overseas migration is undoubtedly the most significant driver of housing demand in Australia. Australia’s population grew by 445,900 in 2024 (equivalent to a Canberra), driven by net overseas migration of 340,600. Net overseas migration remained above the pre-pandemic peak of 315,700 in Q4 2008, accounting for 76% of total population growth. Another overlooked factor
S&P with the report. Flash Australia PMI Composite Output Index(1): 51.2 (May: 50.5). 3-month high. Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index(2): 51.3 (May: 50.6). 3-month high. Flash Australia Manufacturing Output Index(3): 50.4 (May: 49.8). 2-month high. Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI (4): 51.0 (May: 51.0). Growth in new work was notably driven by domestic clients
Policymakers want Australians to live in shoebox apartments to alleviate the structural undersupply of housing in our major cities and accommodate endless population growth. Their mandate contradicts the views of Australians, who prefer to live in detached homes. In May, the average price premium for a detached property in Australia’s major cities was 174%, according
In the debate surrounding the so-called “Mortgage Cliff” and the impact of inflation and higher interest rates on households, the possibility of a strong rise in mortgage arrears has been written off in many quarters. Yet with the release of the latest Residential Mortgage Backed Security (RMBS) data from ratings agency Fitch, that is exactly
In a recent speech to the Queensland Parliament, Mermaid Beach Liberal Party MP Ray Stevens called for the return of vagrancy laws in order to prosecute the “presumably homeless people” increasingly cropping up in his electorate in “some of the most sought after locations anyone could wish for—absolute beachfront”. In a vacuum, one can empathise
Victoria’s economy has become a national disaster. The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) annual state accounts for 2023-24 revealed that Victoria’s per capita GDP fell by 1.2% annually and has only increased by 10.4% since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. Victoria’s growth compares poorly against the 1.0% national decline in per capita GDP in
The ferrous complex is hardly inspiring confidence. Steel output cuts should eventually force more price weakness upstream to iron ore. Meanwhile, Goldman has finally cottoned on to the structural nature of the Chinese property crash. It is forever. Gauging China’s new urban housing demand: In a recent comprehensive update, we re-examine China’s underlying demand for
DXY was smashed as WWIII was cancelled. AUD dumped then pumped following the Iranian popgun retaliation. Couldn’t keep up with EUR. Woe is oil. The glut is large. No Hormuz, no bueno for oil. Bueno for growth! Even the Kodiak grizzly let up for a day. EM meh. Junk party! Bond party! Stock party! There
Everything is awesome as a potential ceasefire in the Middle East is underway, following an Iranian attack on a US military base in Qatar was thwarted. This has sent risk significantly higher, dumping USD and oil prices in the process, negating all the fallout from the entry of the Trump regime into the war. Euro
As the conflict in the Middle East continues, there is a strange divergence in perceptions about what may come next. On one hand, there are headlines that the Iranian Parliament has reached a “unanimous consensus” that Iran should move to close the Strait of Hormuz, whereas on the other, markets have reacted with a rather