Treasurer Jim Chalmers has declared war on Australia’s poor productivity growth, which has slumped to developed-world lows. Chalmers has finally cottoned on to the fact that the economy’s stagnant productivity will not deliver higher living standards for ordinary Australians. In a speech to be delivered to the National Press Club in Canberra, The AFR reports
Westpac with the note. The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, dropped to –0.08% in May from 0.19% in April. The growth pulse has shown a significant deterioration since February, with May
The ~$95 support line gave way yesterday. Goldman has more. Steel: The lingering and hindering steel production cut Orderbooks trend- The forward order books of most steel mills were down MoM in June, in line with seasonality. High-frequency weekly data suggests current steel demand declined by 4.0% yoy for construction steel and down 6.0% yoy
Westpac’s latest consumer sentiment survey suggested that Australians have turned bullish on housing. As illustrated below by AMP chief economist Shane Oliver, house price expectations hit a cyclical high in May. The “time to buy a dwelling” sub-index has also bounced: The rebound in sentiment and house price expectations is understandable given that the Reserve
DXY is stirring as Trump turns neocon. AUD slumped on WWIII. Lead boots are rock solid. Oil is still not overly worried. Metals nervy. Big miners are in the bear market of a lifetime. EM stocks puke. Junk OK. The ‘ol safe haven is back. As stocks stumble. The whole damn world is short DXY
The past month has exposed the fallacy of the Albanese government’s target to build 1.2 million homes over five years, which commenced on 1 July 2024. The federal government’s own advisory body, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC), forecast that only 938,000 dwellings will be built nationwide by mid-2029, 262,000 below the target.
Australia’s manufacturing sector hit a record low share of GDP in the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) national accounts. In Q1 2025, the manufacturing share of GDP fell to just 5.1%, down from 8.9% two decades ago and from 15% in the mid-1970s. Australia’s manufacturing share is also the smallest in the OECD, making
The Israel-Iran war continues to dominate risk markets as Trump runs away from the G7 meeting tweeting out incoherent threats and deals while further strikes against oil tankers and other targets show the conflict spreading. The USD remains somewhat weak although Yen took a small back seat on today’s BOJ meeting with a taper plan
New Zealand’s economy is a basket case. Consider the following data points, many of which come from Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro. The following chart of national accounts data to Q4 2024 shows that New Zealand has experienced a sharp decline in GDP and national income. More recent data suggests that the economy remains moribund.
According to The Guardian, Australia’s tobacco excise rate has tripled in the past decade, from 46c to $1.40 per cigarette, accounting for $28 of the average $40 price for a packet of 20 cigarettes. This has led economists to suggest either a freeze or a cut to the excise rate while Australia cracks down on