DXY is up and away! AUD broke its rising channel. Lead boots plodded over a cliff. Gold hit, oil the shit. Copper lol. The big bear is back. EM caput. Junk reverse. Yields firmed. Stocks held up. US GDP was at 3% in Q2, materially higher than expectations. ADP jobs rebounded above 104k. And the
Wall Street failed to make new highs overnight as the Federal Reserve held fire on any interest rate cuts with European shares rallying instead as the USD soared to new heights against the major currency pairs. The Trump regime has seen major trade deals with Brazil and India fail due to more bullying from
Cotality’s daily dwelling value index shows that across the five major capital city markets, home values rose by 0.6% in July, led by Perth (0.9%) and Brisbane (0.8%). Over the July quarter, values rose by 1.8% across the five major capital cities, with Perth (2.5%) and Brisbane (2.3%) again leading the way. The following chart
The Q1 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that real per capita GDP decreased by 0.2% over the quarter. This was the ninth fall in per capita GDP in eleven quarters. The chart below compares the present decrease in real per capita GDP to previous episodes stretching back to the
Asian share markets are generally weaker across the board as risk markets try to absorb the impact of the latest trade “deal” from the Trump regime while also anticipating some pretty big macro and economic releases in the coming session. Wall Street is the only light of hope for the bubble boys although we have
Via the always excellent Charlie McElligott at Nomura. From Left-Tail To Risk-Tail… 1). The “Trump Collar” helped to compress then collapse realized Volatility off the most extremely 100%ile levels April / May, as the market reconditioned to his reaction function (selling the call at the highs with emboldened tariff rhetoric, but long the put into
As we know, Australia’s East Coast already has a suite of secretly subsidised coal power stations in NSW, VIC and QLD to go alongside heavily subsidised renewables. The reason for this is that the “duck curve” of renewable energy, which makes power super cheap during the day, then expensive in the evening, does not work
ABS Labour mobility was out yesterday and shows the Great Resignation is well and truly over, if it ever was. the job mobility rate decreased to 7.7% younger workers were more mobile than older workers, with 12% of people aged 15 to 24 years changing jobs 2.2 million people left or lost a job The annual
Outfits like the Grattan Institute argue that Australia needs to maintain a high immigration policy to maximise productivity growth. Their analysis consistently overlooks the empirical evidence showing that Australia’s productivity growth declined as immigration surged. Australia has experienced the strongest population growth in the advanced world this century, yet its productivity performance has been abysmal.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said that it was awaiting two vital pieces of data before lowering rates: the June labour force report and the Q2 CPI inflation print. The June labour force figures printed weaker than expected, with the headline unemployment rate rising to 4.31%—above the RBA’s latest projection. Full-time jobs contracted sharply,