In late May, Judo Bank chief economist Warren Hogan projected that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would raise the official cash rate three times by the end of this year. It was an overly hawkish projection that the bulk of Australia’s economists disagreed with. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) stronger-than-expected employment report from last
Goldman on Samta. “1 Trillion” – I am using these words too frequently these days… Stock certificates are a scarce commodity. Today is peak US corporate blackout window and this flow-of-funds dynamic start to improve materially next week. 1. US Corporates are the largest net buyer of US equities in 2024 and are ready to
Gold is a very useful currency. It rallies when the reserve currency is being debased owing to low real interest rates and as a safe haven. However, it is highly volatile and can dramatically overshoot. That is where we are now. Michael Hartnett leads us off: Gold Price: gold at $2695/oz, an all-time high (Chart4),
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has published a research paper examining the claim that high interest rates are partly to blame for the rental crisis. This claim has come about because interest rates and rents often move together, suggesting that leveraged housing investors are passing through increases in their interest costs to their tenants:
SHFE was smashed Friday. SGX is hoping again: Likewise, Mad Dalian: Some of the short-term signals for steel have lifted. CISA early October output was up with margins but so was inventory: MySteel indexes are similar: The bigger picture remains down. NBS data was weak: Corroborated by cement: The steel rebound is partly driven by
China’s Friday growth data was OK with Q3 GDP edging down to 4.6% yoy in Q3 from +4.7. For September, industrial production rose 5.4%, fixed asset investment 3.4% yoy in September and retail sales 3.2%, in part thanks to cash-for-clunkers stimmies. However, the headline data as usual disguised deep weakness. The GDP deflator roared back
Last week, I reported a host of indicators showing how Victoria has transformed into an economic wasteland. These indicators included data from the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) revealing that Victoria recorded the fewest businesses registered per 1,000 existing firms last financial year: As shown above, Victoria registered only 80.5 new businesses per 1,000 existing
The DXY face-ripper finally eased: AUD firmed: North Asia too: Gold bubble alert. Oil is caput: Commods did better: Miners stopped falling: EM yawn: Junk snooze: Yields stable: Stocks only go up: Markets are still long 19k contracts for AUD, opening the way for more falls into the US election: Goldman has more on why:
Australians are experiencing the longest per capita recession on record, with six straight quarterly contractions and seven declines in the preceding eight quarters to Q2 2024. The OECD’s latest economic outlook downgraded Australia’s GDP growth forecast for the 2024 calendar year to only 1.1%, down from 1.5% in the previous edition published in May. The
We all know the gap between ALP and LNP on most things is pretty much non-existent but occasionally a gap opens up. Today that gap is the living standards of Australian workers. The failed Albanese government spent three years crawling to corporations via: out-of-control immigration to crush wages and evict workers into a homelessness crisis,