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Articles from MacroBusiness

Steel goes into the abyss

June 4, 2025 - 11:30 -- Admin

It’s goodbye, Chinese steel prices. No good news. Despite the tariff reduction after the US-China trade talks in Geneva, the headline Caixin manufacturing PMI fell notably to 48.3 in May from 50.4 in April, contrary to market expectations of an uptick. Among the major sub-indexes, the output sub-index decreased the most, followed by the new

Australia’s carbon emissions increase less than population growth

June 4, 2025 - 11:00 -- Admin

Australia recorded a tiny 0.05% rise in carbon emissions in 2024, which has the usual suspects whining. As reported by the Guardian: Emissions last year were estimated to be 446.4m tonnes of carbon dioxide, 0.2m tonnes higher than in 2023. The increase is largely due to pollution from electricity generation rising by 2.2%, reversing a

Victorian government begs rating agencies for stay of execution

June 4, 2025 - 10:30 -- Admin

Victoria’s finances are in a dire state. Victoria’s net debt was only $22.3 billion when the Labor government presented its first state budget in 2015. It has now risen to $155.5 billion and is expected to reach $194 billion by 2028-29, according to budget projections. Victorian net debt per capita was under $3,600 in Labor’s

Labor fiddles as Australia’s productivity burns

June 4, 2025 - 10:00 -- Admin

Assistant Minister for Productivity Andrew Leigh used a speech to the Chifley Research Centre on Tuesday to call for “thickets of regulation” to be reduced to help boost productivity. Leigh stated that there are several ways to improve productivity, including an increased focus on rewarding project delivery and measuring outcomes. He claimed that excessive bureaucracy

The great Aussie defence bludger

June 4, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

There is dumb. And then there is really, really stupid. Australian defence falls into the latter category. In his address to the Shangri-La Dialogue Hegseth made clear the Trump administration’s priority defence policy region is Asia. …Poland expects to spend 4.7 per cent of its GDP on defence this year. Lithuania plans to spend 5.5

Macro Morning

June 4, 2025 - 09:00 -- Admin

Last night saw the release of the latest EU flash inflation figures which imply some building deflationary pressures while the latest US factory orders blew up to a new low, reinforcing the damage done by the Trump regime’s tariff “plan”. But reality didn’t matter to equity markets as they reacted to speculation around potential trade

RBA readies July rate cut

June 4, 2025 - 07:00 -- Admin

Financial markets believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver another three 25 bp cuts to the official cash rate (OCR) in 2025, taking the OCR to 3.10% by year end. However, the market ascribed roughly a 70% probability of the RBA cutting the OCR at its next meeting in July. Belinda Allen,

Macro Afternoon

June 3, 2025 - 16:30 -- Admin

A lot of macro events and geopolitics hit risk markets today but was mostly absorbed outside of currencies as the USD hit a six week low on a combination of the burgeoning world wide trade war started by the Trump regime and the growing slowdown in the domestic US economy. The latest Chinese manufacturing figures

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