Blogotariat

Oz Blog News Commentary

Articles from MacroBusiness

Australia is trapped in a productivity death spiral

May 1, 2025 - 00:05 -- Admin

Australia’s productivity growth has averaged just 0.2% a year over the last decade. Labor’s first budget in 2022 included the assumption that productivity growth would average 1.2% over the long-term. The Coalition contends that annual GDP would be about $250 billion higher if productivity had grown at this pace, while annual tax revenue would have

Macro Afternoon

April 30, 2025 - 16:30 -- Admin

Some interesting local and Chinese reports were absorbed by markets in Asia today, with all eyes really on Friday’s US non farm payroll print and of course, any more waffles coming from the Oval Office about “deals” around Trump’s tariffs. The latest Chinese manufacturing PMI prints weren’t grim as expected but still so a sharp

Peter Dutton refuses to cut Australia’s worst visa

April 30, 2025 - 13:30 -- Admin

Elderly parent visas are Australia’s most costly and should be abolished. Around 8,500 permanent parent visas are issued every year. The 2023 Migration Review from the Australian Treasury estimated that each parent visa costs Australian taxpayers $393,000: The Treasury has estimated that each parent permanent migrant costs $393,000 over their remaining lifetime in Australia. Older

Iron ore at the edge

April 30, 2025 - 11:30 -- Admin

The ferrous complex is not well. As the trade shock begins. Morgan Stanley. Our Asia Economists see China’s 2Q GDP growth tracking below 4.5% Y/Y (vs. 5.4% Y/Y in1Q) as more hard data points are showing that tariffs are affecting activity: container throughput is declining, freight shipping prices to the US are slumping, and China’s

Here comes the recession

April 30, 2025 - 10:30 -- Admin

The Market Ear on diving US leading indicators.    Post crisis lows VIX at the lowest levels since the early April panic. Note the aggressive VVIX implosion, as well as the latest little bid in VVIX. Volatility is not dirt cheap, but early long volatility positions/hedges are starting to screen attractive again. Our full volatility

Indian students are imports, Chinese students are exports

April 30, 2025 - 10:00 -- Admin

The composition of Australia’s international student enrolments has changed drastically over the past 20 years. In December 2005, 288,579 overseas students were studying in Australia. China (63,695) dominated enrolments, with India (24,644) in a distant second position. The Department of Education didn’t even list Nepal. Nine years later, in December 2014, 452,965 overseas students enrolled in

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