The Market Ear with the setup. Chop Our base case remains intact: this market needs to heal and it will take time before we get a new direction. Expect more choppiness. Resistance levels: 5450 (21 day), range highs at 5550. Note the 50 day still way higher, currently just below 5700. Support around the 5100
DXY finds a footing. AUD rocket flamed out. Lead boots going nowhere. Gold flame out, oil stable. Copper is a lunatic. Miners still stuffed. EM going nowhere forever now. Junk not priced for recession yet. Yields still tending to rise. Stock chop. Everybody is selling the whimpering greenback. More than stocks. Way more than yields.
Risk sentiment reversed its decline overnight mainly due to some off the cuff comments from the Trump regime’s Treasury Secretary about an “imminent” deal with China, which were since walked back but this sent a signal to buy USD and US stocks which saw Wall Street take back most of its recent session falls to
The latest monthly permanent and long-term arrivals data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that 155,000 net permanent and long-term arrivals landed in Australia in January and February 2025. This was the second-highest number on record and only a smidgen below last year’s record of 161,000 for the same period. The following chart
Sunset Connewarre AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD GOLD WTI BRENT AUSTRALIA 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 JAPAN 225 Easy Listening
The post Macro Afternoon: 22 April 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Electric vehicles (EVs) are massively subsidised in Australia. First, more than $550 million of tax revenue is estimated to be lost annually due to the Fringe Benefits Tax (FBT) exemption for battery EVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs); however, the FBT exemptions for PHEVs ended on 1 April 2025. Under the FBT exemption policy, somebody who
CoreLogic’s latest monthly chart pack estimated that the value of Australia’s housing stock hit a record high of $11.3 trillion in March, spread across 11.3 million dwellings. This meant that the average value of an Australian home hit $1 million for the first time. Last week, Domain released its house price results for the March
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) annual state accounts, Victoria’s per capita GDP fell by 1.2% in 2023-04 and has only risen by 10.4% since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008. Victoria’s performance compares poorly against the 1.0% national decline in per capita GDP in 2023-24 and the 14.5% increase recorded since
I have read some poor housing analyses in my time, but few are as awful as the Daily Telegraph’s Taylor Troeth, who blamed “stubborn empty nesters” for fueling NSW’s housing crisis. Troeth cites research from Australian Seniors showing that two-thirds of empty nesters in NSW “were still living in large family homes with no plans
Albert Edwards of Societe Generale famously coined the phrase “Ice Age” for the period leading up to and after the GFC. The Ice Age thesis was based on the notion that immensely deflationary forces would emanate from a balance sheet recession taking hold in developed economies. Now Edwards sees the same coming from and for