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Articles from MacroBusiness

What if it’s not a bubble?

February 20, 2024 - 07:30 -- Admin

By now, it is consensus that the equity market is in a bubble, which is a bit oxymoronic. The Market ar has more.  Titans then & now Intel and NVDA from 1995 to today. Axios The wedge On the one hand, the current wedge of market cap over earnings (for tech & communications) is starting

Aussies desperately want to live in houses, not high-rise

February 20, 2024 - 00:05 -- Admin

CoreLogic has released analysis showing that the price gap between detached houses and apartments hit a record high $293,950 as at January 2024: “At the onset of the pandemic in March 2020, the house premium, or the difference between median capital city house and unit values, was just 16.7%. Fast forward almost four years later,

Macro Afternoon

February 19, 2024 - 17:00 -- Admin

A cautious start to the trading week as Asian share markets absorb the reopening of Chinese equities which started lower despite some upbeat macro news. The USD is slightly lower against all the major currency pairs, especially gold while the Australian dollar is finally making some headway as it climbs  above the 65 cent level

Rental inflation a thorn in Reserve Bank’s side

February 19, 2024 - 14:30 -- Admin

Bank economists and financial markets have become more hawkish on New Zealand interest rates following stronger-than-expected labour force data. Last week, economists at ANZ changed its interest rate projection, “forecasting 25bp hikes in both February and April, taking the OCR to 6%”. “We are now forecasting cuts from February 2025, ultimately taking the OCR back

Home ownership becomes a distant dream

February 19, 2024 - 14:00 -- Admin

Domain has published the below table showing the shocking increase in deposits required to purchase a median-priced house across the three largest Australian cities. As you can see, someone who purchased a house in Sydney in December 2018 at the then-median price of little under $1,067,000 would have needed $213,400 in savings for a 20%

The cheap whores of Canberra

February 19, 2024 - 13:00 -- Admin

How amusing is this chart (in the usual dark way): In short: $14.7m to keep the pokies rort running. $9m to sustain the pharmacy monopoly. $4 to prevent the banks from being regulated. $1.4m for whatever HB clients want. $1.2m to prevent the taxation of mining. $1.05m to protect negative gearing and capital gains concessions.

Between a crook and a codger

February 19, 2024 - 12:30 -- Admin

Australians are very poorly served by Canberra, which should be razed with everybody still in it. But spare a thought for the Americans who are served by their own brand of capital city scum. On the one hand, is criminality: Donald Trump and his real estate company suffered a major defeat in New York’s civil

Geopolitics is not a risk to markets

February 19, 2024 - 12:00 -- Admin

Bloomberg used to be good. Now it’s a hysteria machine: Investors and firms are flagging that the war in the Middle East poses a major risk for earnings as boycotts dampen sales and Red Sea shipping chaos threatens their supply chains. Those headwinds pose a danger to the record rally in US stocks, according to

No, Australian interest rates are much more restrictive than elsewhere

February 19, 2024 - 11:30 -- Admin

The AFR’s Jonathan Kearns argues that Australia’s interest rates are not as restrictive as those of other nations and are not high enough to tame inflation. Accordingly, Australia is unlikely to experience the ” immaculate disinflation” that will be experienced elsewhere and will have to keep rates higher for longer. “The basic metric for monetary

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