Goldman with the note. For much of the week, our Dollar views were on the wrong side of market moves, but the substantial revisions to the employment situation should, in turn, revise the emerging narrative that the FX reaction to tariffs has changed again. On the tariff narrative, we see three key aspects to our
Well that was an interesting Friday night with the much anticipated non-farm payroll AKA US unemployment print shocking to the downside, with further revisions to prior month prints finally revealing the impact of the Trump regime’s tariff on the domestic economy. Coupled with the passing of the August 1st tariff “deadline” and King Trump spitting
At the end of 2024, CoreLogic (now Cotality) reported that Australia’s housing affordability—both to purchase and rent—was the worst on record, as illustrated by the graphic below. Home prices relative to incomes, the percentage of income required to service a mortgage, the number of years taken to save a deposit, and the percentage of income
Prefabricated housing is often touted as a solution to Australia’s housing affordability crisis. This week, 9 News ran an advertorial on Australia’s budding prefabricated housing industry, which it heralded as “a potential new dawn for Australia’s housing crisis”. These homes, which can be constructed in 10 to 12 weeks and can be “generally installed in one
What do you think happens when you try to manage a narcissist with a narcissist? Both pretend the other does not exist. AFR. Leavitt said of the country’s 18 largest trading partners, two-thirds had a deal. Australia is among the huge majority of countries that have not yet struck a deal and is facing the
Goldman wraps the EOFY bump in retail sales. Nominal retail sales rose 1.2%mom in June, above expectations (GSe:+0.9%mom, BBG: 0.5%mom). The quarterly data were also firmer than expectations, with volumes rising 0.3%qoq in 2Q 2025 (GSe: -0.3%qoq, BBG:+0.1%qoq). That said, the acceleration in volumes growth was driven by a rebound in Queensland following flood-related weakness
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released dwelling approvals data for June, which posted another solid rise. There were 15,984 dwellings approved in trend terms in June, the highest volume since September 2022. Despite the rebound, approvals remained 20% below the monthly 20,000 run rate required to meet the Albanese government’s target to build 1.2
The ferrous complex likes to stick to seasonal patterns, but the sgtins are not good when steel gives way. Nor when PMIs give way. China official NBS manufacturing PMI: 49.3 in July, vs. 49.7 in June. Official non-manufacturing PMI: 50.1 in July, vs. 50.5 in June. The construction PMI fell notably in July to 50.6
King dollar is back. AUD is beheaded by the king. Lead boots give up. Oil and gold mark time. Metlas mania implodes. Big mininig, big bear intact. EM flames out. Junk OK. Yields firm. Stocks stall. The market is just far too short US dollars triggering a short squeeze. As its economy and assets outperform.
Sticky tariff induced inflation in the US overnight sent Wall Street lower as the expectation of rate cuts were diced as the latest PCE came in higher than expected. The Trump regime continues to bully Canada with the probability of 35% tariffs rising as no deal or framework before the August 1st “deadline” while Mexico just