The ferrous complex is nothing flash, that’s for sure. But tariffs are yet to show much in its steel exports. These are absorbing an extra 100mt of iron ore from the COVID lows. Iron ore imports are lacklustre but not collapsing. I expect more downside ahead as construction continues to shrink, but unless Beijing acts
Last week’s Q1 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that real per capita GDP fell by 0.2%. This represented the ninth decline in per capita GDP in eleven quarters. The following chart plots the current decline in real per capita GDP against prior episodes dating back to the beginning of
DXY can’t get off its knees. It’s not an AUD rocket so much as a tractor slogging it uphill. The big short is excellent support. Lead boots OK too. Machines are into oil. Metals no bueno. Fugly miners. EM thinks it can. Junk funk. Yields sticky. Stocks only go up. Nothing much has changed. The
The first session following the release of the latest monthly US jobs print is usually benign and that’s what we had across most risk markets overnight as speculation about what the Federal Reserve will do until the next NFP print calmed down, sending the USD slightly lower against the majors. Uncertainty over trade deals kept
Gerard Minack destroys Australia’s sick economy. Australia remains stuck in a macro rut. Low investment and fast population growth prevent capital deepening and productivity growth. The result is stagnant real incomes and falling per capita GDP. This malaise is also reflected in anaemic corporate earnings, but not in the equity market’s premium valuation. The RBA
All one really needs to be seen to be smart is Australia’s is to be loudest. That is the repuation at RBA press conferences of Warren Hogan, bullhawk and bullhorn. He has been Australia’s loudest and most persistent bullhawk. Until now. …at the heart of our productivity problem is a collapse in the efficiency of
The Albanese government has engaged in a full-court press of housing disinformation. Last week, Labor’s new Productivity Minister Andrew Leigh wrote the following spin in The AFR: “The federal government is doing our part. Through the National Housing Accord, we’re working with the states and territories to build 1.2 million homes over five years. We’ve
The past few months have seen Australia’s auction market roar back to life. Last week, the national final auction clearance rate recorded its highest level since July 2024, with just over 66% of homes taken to auction selling. The following chart clearly illustrates the bounce in clearance rates, with higher auction clearances typically leading to
DXY held on Friday night. AUD could not break higher. Lead boots still plodding upwards. Gold sagged. Oil bounce looks technical to me. Metals no bueno. Big bear rolls on. EM maybe. Junk meh. Yields up. Stocks upper. The US jobs report was a Goldilocks scenario, so it did not change the trends. Total nonfarm
International Reading: ‘There’s no fraud’: Steve Bannon says Elon Musk’s DOGE cuts are a huge failure – Raw Story Trump calls for scrapping debt limit – The Hill Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data – WSJ President Stagflation: US economic activity declines as tariffs pressure prices, Fed says – Yahoo House GOP