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Renew Economy Friday, May 16, 2025 - 14:59 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 16, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Australia has too many cafes, and many will need to close down. According to IBIS World, over 27,000 cafes and coffee shops operate in Australia. Competition is fierce, with multiple cafes often operating at the same locations. And there isn’t enough consumer demand to sustain them. Australian households are caught in a cost-of-living crisis. Real

The post Australians say ‘no’ to $6 coffees appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 16, 2025 - 13:26 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 16, 2025 - 13:16 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 16, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Much ado about nothing in iron ore. Some good charts from ANZ. Property steel is still falling. I expect it to fall much more than they do this year. Non-property demand is going nowhere in volume terms. Exports are at risk. The market is supported somewhat by a weak CNY restock. 90-100 per tonne probably

The post Much ado about nothing in iron ore. appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 16, 2025 - 12:34 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 16, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Now this is some good news on gas for once. The planned LNG import terminal at Port Kembla, backed by billionaire Andrew Forrest’s Squadron, will not be ready to receive gas until at least mid-2027, delaying a key project intended to safeguard Australia’s east coast energy supply. Rob Wheals, the chief executive of Squadron Energy,

The post Gasmageddon plant idled in Egypt appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 16, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Exorbitant land costs are the fundamental driver behind Australia’s expensive housing. During 2023-24, the residential land values that underpin the housing market grew by 8.8%, reaching a valuation of $7.7 trillion. Over the 35 years to 2023–24, residential land values skyrocketed from 1.1 to 2.9 times Australia’s GDP. In contrast, aggregate structure values only increased

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Renew Economy Friday, May 16, 2025 - 11:35 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 16, 2025 - 11:30 Source

More pain from The Market Ear. After the China/US trade talks JPM’s great derivatives team dives in: “The China-US trade talks in Geneva have been more positive than anticipated and have resulted in a normalization of the volatility spread between the S&P 500 and European indices. We recommend buying SPX short-dated calls, fully funded by selling

The post The pain trade turns agony appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 16, 2025 - 11:00 Source

New Zealand experienced one of the world’s biggest house price booms over the pandemic, with prices soaring by around 30%. As a result, the 2022 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey ranked New Zealand as having one of the world’s most expensive housing markets, with a median multiple of 11.2 in 2021. New Zealand’s market has since

The post New Zealand’s ‘wonderful’ house price crash appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 16, 2025 - 10:30 Source

DXY is taking a breather. That could not help the AUD. No lead boots. Gold up. Metals down. Big miners still look fugly. EM stocks hit resistance. Junk says no problemo. Yields eased. Stocks mixed. TS Lombard sounds about right today. The US-China truce removes major USD downside risk. The significant de-escalation in trade tensions

The post Australian dollar slip sliding away appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Friday, May 16, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Turning in other directions can be accomplished by using a magnetized centerboard and ocean currents, since a current flowing through a magnetic field induces a Laplace force.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 16, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Australian households are experiencing their longest recession in generations. The Q4 national accounts released in March showed that real per capita home consumption declined for the eighth consecutive quarter. A sharp dip in household incomes is driving the decline in consumption. As shown below, as of Q4 2024, real per capita household consumption had fallen

The post Australia’s never-ending household recession appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 16, 2025 - 09:30 Source

It’s a new and improved Albo with the same old message. “We had progressive patriotism,” Albanese said of the Labor campaign message. “We spoke about doing things the Australian way, not looking towards any other method or ideology from overseas. “At a time where there’s conflict in the world, where people are often divided on

The post Albo’s “progessive patriotism” to poverty and conflict appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Friday, May 16, 2025 - 09:30 Source

Tasmania flew under the radar in the lead up to the recent election, because of the lack of state polling in Tasmania. It was a “known unknown” to quote Donald Rumsfeld, and I do remember commenting that we didn’t know how things were going in Tasmania, but still we did not know. This did create space for some fevered commenters on this website to confidently assert that Labor was on track to be badly beaten, but now we know better.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 16, 2025 - 07:53 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 16, 2025 - 07:00 Source

Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) reported that the total value of Australia’s housing stock was $11.3 trillion as of April 30, 2025, with the average home worth exactly $1 million. New research from Cotality shows that a record 34.4% of homes across the nation were valued above $1 million in April, with 41.6% of capital city homes

The post High house prices are strangling Australia appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 16, 2025 - 06:16 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 16, 2025 - 06:00 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 16, 2025 - 00:05 Source

The Q4 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that households had suffered the largest decline in real per capita household disposable incomes on record, down around 8% from the mid-2022 peak. New data from the OECD shows that Australia also recorded the largest decline in real per capita household disposable

The post Aussies suffer world-record income collapse appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 16:25 Source

      AUD/USD         EUR/USD         USD/JPY         GBP/USD         Gold         WTI         Brent         Australia 200         US S&P 500         UK 100    

The post Macro Afternoon: 15 May 2025 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 15:50 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 15:12 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 15:11 Source
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Renew Economy Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 14:58 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 14:07 Source

Alex Joiner from IFM Investors has published the following chart showing the sharp reversal of interest rate pricing in the futures market. After President Donald Trump announced his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs last month, the futures market had forecast five more interest rate cuts this year and a cash rate of around 2.85% by the end

The post Hopes fade for deep interest rate cuts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 14:00 Source
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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 13:30 Source

Joseph Capurso and Carol Kong at CBA have written an excellent report explaining the economic implications of the US-China trade war de-escalation. Key Points: The 90 day reduction in tariffs on US-China trade confirms ‘peak tariff’ is past. We estimate the US effective tariff rate on imports from China is now 41%, down from 155%.

The post Economic implications of the US-China trade war de-escalation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, May 15, 2025 - 13:13 Source

After Australia’s Q1 wage growth result was in line with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) forecasts, the April labour force report produced an unemployment rate broadly in line with expectations: As summarised by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors below, the result was stronger than the headline suggests. While the unemployment rate was steady at

The post Aussie unemployment hits RBA target appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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