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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Via the ABS. CPI analytical series Seasonally adjusted 2.4 2.4 2.1 CPI excluding volatile items* and holiday travel 2.6 2.8 2.7 Annual trimmed mean 2.7 2.8 2.4 Two basis points under market expectations. The chart: Trimmed mean inflation is also running well behind the RBA’s forecasts, as illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors:

The post Monthly inflation takes a dump appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 11:55 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 11:32 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 11:30 Source

Geoff Wilson, founder of Wilson Asset Management, stepped up his attack on the Albanese government’s proposed tax on unrealised superannuation capital gains, which he labelled “unfair” and “un-Australian”. The proposed policy would increase the earnings tax on superannuation balances of $3 million or more from the current 15% to 30% without indexation. It would also

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 11:02 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 11:00 Source

The ferrous market does not look well to me. Scuttlebutt is pretty good. The benchmark July iron ore on the Singapore Exchange was 0.15% higher at $93.65 a ton. Hot metal production, a gauge of iron ore demand, inched up 0.24% week-on-week to 2.422 million tons, as of June 20, according to data from Chinese

The post When all you have is a shovel, everthing looks like iron ore appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The gas cartel shills are in gear for the Santos takeover, according to the AFR. “The opportunity is there to leverage a far better outcome for the domestic energy market through a highly conditional approval – not just an undertaking to do things some time in the future. No, from day one, you rectify the

The post Australia mad to sell Santos without gas restructuring appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 10:00 Source

In the 2022 state budget, the former Queensland Labor government blindsided the coal industry by unexpectedly introducing two new tiers of coal royalties. This included a top tier of 40% for coal prices above $ 300 per tonne, effectively a mild super-profits tax. The unexpected announcement was a stroke of political genius, as it caught the

The post Brilliant Queensland stares down coal lobby appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Once you add the balloons into the model, it makes forecasting easier overall--the forecast is always 'cold and dark, with minimal solar-driven convection.'

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY appears ready to crack. I would say this will be its last leg down before Fed cuts arrive and do the opposite later this year. AUD is being powered by the big short. Apparent in CFTC. Lead boots are not much help, though. I’m a seller into the next god leg higher. Oil bottomed

The post Big short powers Australian dollar higher appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 09:06 Source

Does this look to you like a dog who didn’t steal an extra-large cartoon of eggs? Does she have the air of aggrieved innocence one might expect from a dog wrongly accused of stealing and scoffing fifteen eggs while the other dog was out on his walk? Does that tummy look somewhat distended to you?

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Risk markets continue to discount all negative news, like the non-existent ceasefire between Iran and Israel, and latched on to Federal Reserve Chair Powells dovish testimony in front of Congress overnight. Wall Street rallied over 1% higher while the USD was sold off again as Euro led the way while the Australian dollar found some

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 08:57 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 08:00 Source

Brisbane’s median home price has surged by 85% since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. According to PropTrack, Brisbane’s median dwelling value was $889,000 in May 2025, the second-highest in the nation, behind Sydney. Brisbane dwelling values were already set to rise further owing to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary

The post Brisbane house prices are rigged to blow appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 07:24 Source

Protesters in Venice are claiming an "enormous victory" after US tech billionaire Jeff Bezos and his wedding guests were forced to "run away" from the city centre, moving their main celebration to another location.

The venues for the three-day party to mark the wedding of one of the world's richest men to TV presenter Lauren Sanchez were never officially revealed. 

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Your Democracy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 05:43 Source

We talk glibly about our [Australia's] future in Asia, but we are stuck in a US and UK media cul de sac.

The Washington consensus and our legacy media frames and conditions our thinking and actions. It promotes fear of Asia, the yellow peril.

An updated post from August 23, 2021

 

John Menadue

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Your Democracy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 05:34 Source

Anyone with any knowledge of Iran's history and culture will know that it will not be bribed or bullied into doing what the West wants.

It has no reason to trust Western promises, and having endured the suffering of the Iran-Iraq War, is unlikely to buckle under any pressure, military or economic, that the West would be prepared to impose.

read more

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Your Democracy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 04:51 Source

 

Forget the fog of war. Even in war, and sometimes especially in war, some things are exceedingly clear. Regarding the so-called ‘Hamas-Israel War’, for instance, it is obvious that in reality it is not a war at all but a genocide, namely the Gaza Genocide, carried out by Israel against the Palestinians whose unbroken resistance will be the stuff of legends, and of history too.

 

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Your Democracy Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 04:24 Source

 

Screenwriters in Hollywood who “say they are Jewish” have been planting pro-war narratives about Iran in mainstream entertainment for more than a decade, Wikileaks has claimed.

Israel launched airstrikes on Iran earlier this month, claiming Tehran was close to creating a nuclear weapon. Over the weekend, the US also directly joined the conflict by bombing Iranian nuclear facilities.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 25, 2025 - 00:05 Source

During the Albanese government’s first term, one of the main policy focuses was on public housing. Throughout much of the second half of the government’s first term, various public housing-related policies were major bones of contention, most notably the Housing Australia Future Fund or HAFF. The HAFF provided the Albanese government with a striking headline

The post Albo’s public housing train wreck appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 18:08 Source

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THE BLOT REPORT Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 17:25 Source

In 1992, I went to Russia and Kazakhstan on what was supposed to be an Australia-USSR science agreement exchange program visit (the USSR had ceased to exist at this time, so the Australian government paid for the whole trip). A Russian researcher had come to Australia to work with one of my colleagues and me in 1990. We had moved into a new house a week before I hopped on the plane to Moscow, leaving behind my partner and our two little boys aged 6 and 3. I took a couple of books to read in what I suspected would be a fair bit of down-time.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 16:30 Source

Risk markets are buying the rumour, selling the fact with stocks and undollars soaring higher while oil and the USD is slammed lower on the possibility of a “ceasefire” in the Middle East. Lost among this turmoil are the big deals happening in Europe between the EU, Canada and Greenland as the pivot away from

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 15:05 Source

Late on Monday, the AEC transitioned the election results website to its final archive form. You can now find the results at results.aec.gov.au, and the previous link no longer works.

There is probably enough fresh data to fuel a whole week of blog posts. I am planning to return to the question of the national 2PP and 2PP preference flows by party, as well as some deeper analysis of the 3CP trends across the country.

For this post, I am going to focus on close races, in particular those involving independents against the major parties.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 14:54 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 14:52 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 14:37 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 14:00 Source

Major LNG exporters Qatar and the United Arab Emirates rely on passage through the Strait of Hormuz to supply Asian markets. However, Iran has threatened to block the strait, prompting concerns about a possible spike in LNG prices, along with supply worries. However, Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King has sought to assure domestic gas users

The post Labor cannot be trusted on gas appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 13:30 Source

The federal government has been advised by eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant to scrap YouTube’s exemption from laws banning people under the age of 16 from using social media, which are scheduled to take effect in December. Former communications minister Michele Rowland had cited YouTube’s educational content as one of the justifications for exempting it

The post It’s time to end the nanny state appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - 13:00 Source

Net overseas migration is undoubtedly the most significant driver of housing demand in Australia. Australia’s population grew by 445,900 in 2024 (equivalent to a Canberra), driven by net overseas migration of 340,600. Net overseas migration remained above the pre-pandemic peak of 315,700 in Q4 2008, accounting for 76% of total population growth. Another overlooked factor

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