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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 12:30 Source

The AFR continues its energy jihad against all Australians today: East coast gas buyers have resigned themselves to the prospect of paying around $10 a gigajoule for gas, even with Labor’s gas plan signalling lower prices, said Cooper Energy chief executive David Maxwell. “There no doubt that the mood has changed a lot in the last six

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 12:09 Source

By Leith van Onselen Australia’s speculator frenzy continues to retreat, according to today’s Lending Finance data for August, released by the ABS. As shown below, the annual value of investor loans in New South Wales (read Sydney) is falling fast, whereas Victoria (read Melbourne) is also falling. Investor loans in the other major jurisdictions are also

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 12:00 Source

By Leith van Onselen The Government-run Financial Helpline on track to receive record number of cases this year, with older Australians who can’t meet mortgage or rent payments over-represented, and counsellors starting to field calls from people struggling to switch to principal and interest mortgage payments. From The ABC: “The phones just never stop now,”

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 11:57 Source

Via Australian Parasite: Research from Roy Morgan says the current figure of 8.9% has risen from 8% twelve months ago and could continue to rise if house prices keep falling. The figures are based on the fact that the value of their home is only equal to or less than the amount they still owe.

The post Negative mortgage equity spreads appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 11:45 Source

Karen Moley puts lippy on the banking pig today: …there’s no doubt that the Hayne royal commission – which has forced the banks to crack down on some of their lax lending standards and to forsake some of the suspect fees they’ve been happily pocketing for years – has played some role in this sell-off

The post Why are Aussie banks getting smashed? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 11:40 Source

Yawn: International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion of the global economy by noting that GDP growth in many of Australia’s trading partners had continued at an above-trend pace in the first half of 2018. Although timely measures of global activity had recently eased somewhat, global growth was expected to remain solid over the following

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 11:30 Source

By Leith van Onselen The AFR View has launched a shameless, evidence-free, attack on Labor’s reluctance towards so-called ‘Free Trade Agreements’ (FTAs): Labor has caved in to the worst anti-trade instincts of the trade union movement and the party’s left… a raft of promises unveiled by shadow trade minister Jason Clare that would make future

The post AFR editorial launches shocking FTA spruik appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 11:15 Source

By Leith van Onselen NBN Co CEO, Bill Morrow, last year warned that Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN) faces damaging competition from the upcoming 5G network, and called for a levy on mobile broadband services, which was thankfully rejected. Today, The AFR reports that one-in-three households are looking at 5G wireless services for their home internet connection, thus

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Renew Economy Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 11:07 Source

Australia’s leading sustainability organisation, the Alternative Technology Association, has changed its name to Renew.

The post Leading sustainability organisation undergoes renewal appeared first on RenewEconomy.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 11:00 Source

By Leith van Onselen Desperate to keep the East Coast property bubble going, the Turnbull Government last year passed legislation to allow first-home buyers (FHBs) to use up to $30,000 of voluntary super contributions for a housing deposit. The scheme was announced as part of a ‘housing affordability’ package announced in the 2017 Federal Budget.

The post FHB patsies raid $5m in super ahead of property bust appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 10:45 Source

FTAlphaville says it is: The whole point of Tether, the “stablecoin” suspected of having been used to manipulate the prices of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, is that it is a digital version of the dollar. The idea is that Tether is easier to move around than real dollars, and it can be used instead of the greenback on

The post Is a bitcoin bank run underway? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 10:45 Source

By Leith van Onselen In the wake of the union movement threatening to pull support from Labor at the next election after it agreed to support legislation to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), as well as growing opposition within its own ranks, Labor’s Jason Clare introduced a private member’s bill aimed at placating their concerns. From

The post Labor launches TPP smokescreen appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 10:30 Source

Via Bloomie: President Donald Trump said he’s immediately sending Secretary of State Michael Pompeo to Saudi Arabia to meet with King Salman bin Abdulaziz and suggested that “rogue killers” might be behind the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey. Trump commented on Monday after he said the king, in a 20-minute phone call, offered

The post Jacksonian Trump whacks Saudi with lettuce leaf appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 10:27 Source

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 10:15 Source

By Leith van Onselen After the Grattan Institute recently rubbished the Victorian Government’s announced plans for a $50 billion gigantic rail tunnel loop, claiming the project has been announced without Infrastructure Victoria’s expert advice and without conducting a business case, more transport ‘experts’ have cast doubt on the plan: Transport experts have questioned why it

The post Experts rubbish Vic Labor’s $50b rail megaponzi appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 10:08 Source

Via RIO: Not rally market moving. Still on track for guidance.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 10:00 Source

Via Bloomie: Ulf Lindahl, chief executive officer of AG Bisset Associates, predicts the dollar will plunge about 40 per cent against the euro by 2024. The currency manager’s reasoning is straightforward-since the 1970s, the dollar has been repeating a 15-year cycle of losses and gains, and the pattern is replaying now. To some, Lindahl’s call

The post Of course the US dollar is going to tumble appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 09:51 Source

Via NAB comes more news to upset the banks:    

The post NAB joins bank’s profit warning cavalcade appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 09:45 Source

It’s both riveting and horrible watching the major bank’s abort the next round of regulatory reform before it is even born, from The Australian: The word on the street is that Jacinta Ellis, a 12-year APRA veteran and a senior manager in the legal group, has defected to National Australia Bank, taking up a regulatory affairs

The post Ken Henry’s NAB deepens the APRA swamp appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 09:30 Source

Australia’s dangerous politics of symbolism rolls on today. At The Guardian Wentworth is all about climate change: The bricklayer can be sued and even jailed. If a doctor finds some old packets of thalidomide in their surgery and, in spite of the overwhelming scientific evidence of its horrific effects, dispenses it to pregnant women, they

The post I’ll see your climate change and raise you a Jerusalem appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 09:15 Source

By Leith van Onselen ABC 7.30 Report last night aired part one of its three-part population special, which included me as the economist. While I will reserve judgement until the final two-parts have been aired, my initial gut reaction is disappointing. The main problem I see with it so far is the ABC has inferred

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 09:00 Source

Iron ore prices for October 15, 2018: Spot eased. Paper fell more. Steel is up again. I still see the complex falling through the end of the year and into Q1 before a solid 2019.

The post Daily iron ore price update (flame out) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 08:30 Source

By Chris Becker Equity markets are still feeling the pressure with US stocks slipping following what looked like a positive session and rebound in Europe. The USD remains under a cloud as well with the antipodean currencies lifting in the wake of a lower than expected advanced retail sales print. Treasuries were largely unchanged and

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 07:47 Source

DXY was down overnight with CNY and EUR up: AUD was up modestly against DMs: But could not match EMs: Gold rallied again: Oil held on: Base metals fell: But miners rose: EM stocks fell: But junk rallied: As Treasuries were bought: And bunds: Even Italy a bit: Stocks fell moderately: Westpac has the wrap:

The post Volatility persists in global stocks appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 00:16 Source

From CoreLogic comes weekly indices that look ugly for property. Unsold listings are piling up: Leading mortgages are falling down: And auction clearance patterns remain poor with Sydney’s mortgage belt pain intensifying while Melbourne just falls everywhere: There is nothing but more pain here.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 00:15 Source

By Leith van Onselen Just a fortnight after the Grattan Institute released propaganda claiming “Australia’s urban commuters have little to fear from population growth”, that “migration has not brought cities to a standstill”, and that the impact of population growth is “benign”, the truth has been revealed yet again, with the Australian Automobile Association (AAA)

The post Traffic congestion is getting worse, led by Sydney and Melbourne appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 00:15 Source

From Bill Evans, the most honest of the of the major bank economists by some distance:

The post Bill Evans: House price leading indicators worse than GFC appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 00:10 Source

Via BofAML which see the Australian dollar jumping to 84 cents by year-end 2019: We are relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are strong in Australia, particularly for the labour market. A key reason that we thought the [US] dollar would be strong was the fiscal stimulus. Looking ahead the impact will start to fade and we

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 00:08 Source

By Leith van Onselen The Teranet-National Bank House Price Index for September has been released, which shows that Canadian house price growth has bounced from last month’s post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) low: In the year to September, Canadian home values rose by just 2.1%, up from 1.4% last month. The rebound was driven by Toronto,

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, October 16, 2018 - 00:05 Source

Via the ABC because we have so much in common: Chinese football’s governing body has turned to military drills in its latest attempt to fulfil President Xi Jinping’s goal to make the country a great football power by the turn of the century. Over the weekend, more than 50 of the country’s top under-25 players

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