Blogotariat

For months I’ve not addressed Adam Creighton’s virus tirade demanding more people die to save business. It’s obvious that this is a false binary. The virus crushes economies whether governments step in to address it or not. Instead, I’ll just leave this here to let you take the measure of the man: Shameful what’s occurring

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MB has spent a lot of time focusing on the ‘fiscal cliff’ facing Australian households once emergency income support is wound back from October, specifically: JobKeeper will be reduced from $1500 to $1200 ($750 part-time); and JobSeeker will be reduced from $1100 to $815. This ‘fiscal cliff’ is illustrated nicely below by the Grattan Institute,

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RES and Macquarie land finance and a buyer for the second stage of the huge Murra Warra wind project in western Victoria.

In a recent post, I pointed out that long-term (30 year) real interest rates on safe (AAA) bonds had fallen to zero, and suggested that this meant the end of capitalism, at least in the sense that the term was understood in classical economics. On the other hand, stock markets have been doing very well. So what is going on? This is a complicated story and I’m still working it out,An important starting point is the fact that the most profitable companies, particularly tech companies, don’t have all that much in the way of capital assets compared to their market value.

The Australian dollar is struggling this morning: Bonds the usual flatline: XJO is soft” Big Iron is up: Big Gas not: Big Gold is: Big Banks have been sucked back into the bath of blood: WBC technicals tell the tale. Supports all broken: Property crash!

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Kristina Clifton, Senior Economist at CBA, has released interesting analysis examining household incomes and expenditure. She finds that average household disposable incomes have grown over the past year, thanks to emergency income support and early superannuation release, but expenditure has obviously fallen: The income of the average household has lifted over the past year driven

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Nice work here from Seth Klarman of Baupost: Peering into the Future: The Possible Longer-Term Ramifications of the COVID-19 Pandemic For most of the last century, a reasonable approach to assessing a company’s future prospects was to expect mean reversion. Fluctuations in business performance were largely cyclical phenomena. The stock market, as always, could be

The post The structural changes of COVID-19 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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By Chris Becker  The very interesting divergence on global stock markets continued on Friday night with Wall Street going gaga for tech stock earnings while the rest of the civilized world took a deep breath and realised that COVID-19 troubles are not going away, with steep falls across the remainder of the risk complex. The

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Iron ore prices for July 31, 2020: Spot stable. Paper up. Steel plodding along. The Chinese Steel PMI was out and it wasn’t great: That’s some meh levels that do not justify today’s prices. But that only strengthens my notion that this is a policy-driven rally with steel mills pumping the stuff out purely to

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War demands a lot of energy and a twisted sense of values.

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I wish it were hard to believe that just last week Josh Depressionberg announced a major tightening of fiscal support, the RBA put the stimulus cue in the rack, and the Morrison Government tried to bulldoze state quarantine borders in preparation for a rushed international opening to renew mass immigration and his favoured house price

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CoreLogic’s preliminary auction clearance rate rebounded to 65.3% from 59.2% last weekend: Melbourne’s preliminary clearance rate rebounded to 59.8% from 49.8% last week, due to bombing volumes (and fewer withdrawals). As noted by CoreLogic: There were 351 Melbourne homes scheduled for auction this week, lower than the 540 over the week prior. The lower volumes

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