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Oz Blog News Commentary
MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 12:35 Source

I’ve been waiting for it for while and now we get our first clear evidence of slowing growth arising from policy tightening. Chinese data for July has just missed across the board with Industrial production in at 6.4% vs 7.1% expected, fixed asset investment at 8.3% versus 8.6% expected and retail sales at 10.4% versus

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Harrangue Man Monday, August 14, 2017 - 12:13 Source

As long noted the path to mental health recovery is more like a dance than a linear journey given there are steps you take back even as you aim to dance forward. I've been down this path a few times now since the injury where I'll be coping, even thriving, then suddenly—WHAM!—straight back into a moment or moments that wrenched my core being.There's one technique where you write a letter about how you feel.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 12:06 Source

Via STO: Pelican Point is one of those gas-fired power stations that have sat idle as the gas cartel has applied discriminatory pricing across the east coast. This is welcome and goes a long way towards resolving SA energy security issues. However, one deal does not a Summer make and the key is what price

The post Santos spruiks gas to SA appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, August 14, 2017 - 12:00 Source

Construction at the $360 million Mount Emerald Wind Farm near Mareeba reached an important milestone last week when the first of 53 turbine foundations was put in place.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 11:53 Source

Via Citi’s chief global strategist, Matt King: Markets seem optimistic that central bank plans to modestly reduce their support for markets in coming months can be achieved without disruption. We are not convinced. When other people’s children behave badly, the temptation is to presume it’s something to do with the parents. But then one day,

The post When will the Fed end the business cycle? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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AustralianPolitics.com Monday, August 14, 2017 - 11:46 Source

Text, video and audio of statement on Section 44 dual citizenship to the House of Representatives by Barnaby Joyce.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 11:40 Source

By Leith van Onselen The RBA’s Assistant Governor (Financial Markets), Christopher Kent, gave a speech this morning to the Moody’s Analytics Australia Conference 2017, which released a swathe of new data on Australia’s 1.6 million strong ($400 billion) securitised mortgage market, comprising around one-quarter of the nation’s outstanding home loans. Below is the speech in

The post RBA still focused on household debt appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 10:58 Source

By Leith van Onselen After last week launching his new website, Dick Smith Fair Go, with an e-book entitled: “The Aussie housing affordability crisis: an honest debate” (which I provided input into), Dick Smith will tomorrow begin a TV advertising campaign calling on Australia’s governments to reduce Australia’s immigration intake. From SBS: Entrepreneur Dick Smith

The post Dick Smith launches $1 million ad campaign to cut immigration appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 10:48 Source

Given him the arse too, from Barnaby Joyce: Last Thursday afternoon, the New Zealand High Commission contacted me to advise that on the basis of preliminary advice from the department of internal affairs which had received inquiries, considered that I could be a citizen of New Zealand by descent. Needless to say, I was shocked

The post Barnaby Joyce a Kiwi? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, August 14, 2017 - 10:41 Source

Company to deliver more than 500MW in Australia over the next 12 Months

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Political Owl Monday, August 14, 2017 - 10:38 Source

A singalong for today.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 10:37 Source

By Leith van Onselen Last week, BIS Oxford Economics forecast that the number of apartment commencements across Australia will fall below 60,000 by mid-2020, compared with around 119,000 in the March 2016 quarter, with Brisbane and Melbourne bearing the brunt: High-rise apartment commencements in Queensland will fall as much as 70 per cent from their

The post BIS: Apartment slump big GDP headwind appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 10:25 Source

From CoreLogic: Leading index for mortgages still down 10 points on last year and running at 2014 levels. The next few months will interesting heading into Spring. Strong years rise from this point. Listings are also up modestly year on year. This is all consistent with further a further fade ahead in the property price

The post CoreLogic leading mortgage index still subdued appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 10:13 Source

Via Macquarie: Iron ore update: restocking, skewed demand & cyclically wide discounts  Increasing optimism towards 2H17 steel demand, together with talk of further steel capacity cuts, has prompted Chinese mills to restock iron ore, driving the spot benchmark price to over $75/t in August, up by ~$22/t from the lows of $53/t touched on

The post Will FMG’s iron ore discounting ever end? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Monday, August 14, 2017 - 10:00 Source

There is speculation that the next Queensland state election could take place in the next few months, and in preparation for this election I’ve now completed my guide to the 93 electorates which will be contested.

Each guide, as is usual, contains a history of the electorate, maps and tables showing the results of the previous election, and a list of candidates running in the seat. The candidate lists will be regularly updated over the coming months.

I’ve also drafted a few posts summing up the impact of the redistribution and the key seats in the election, and they’ll pop up over the next few days.

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xkcd.com Monday, August 14, 2017 - 10:00 Source

There were traffic jams for the eclipses in 1970 and 1979, and that was *before* we had the potential for overnight viral social media frenzies.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 09:43 Source

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its population estimates for the June quarter of 2016, which recorded an unprecedented population increase of 100,400 (2.1%) in the year to June, driven by a record high 72,300 net migration: According to Statistics New Zealand: “Our current net migration rate is high by New Zealand

The post NZ’s unprecedented immigration explosion appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 09:42 Source

Via Domainfax: Commonwealth Bank chief executive Ian Narev will leave the bank by the end of this financial year, the bank’s chairman Catherine Livingstone says. As the country’s biggest lender is engulfed by allegations it breached anti-money laundering rules, Ms Livingstone said Mr Narev would retire by June 2018, subject to when it was able to find a replacement. The announcement comes

The post Narev gets the tap on the shoulder appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 09:40 Source

By Chris Becker  Volatility returns with a vengeance as tensions on the Korean peninsula spillover to risk markets, even when the economic and stock fundamentals seem sound. The problem with too low volatility is it begets a higher burst when it breaks and that’s where correlated stock markets find themselves presently. As usual for Monday

The post Macro Morning (Trading Week) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 09:37 Source

From the always excellent Vimal Gor today: Markets came into July braced for higher volatility, led by global yields. Despite sell-off attempts in both US Treasuries and German Bunds, yields ended the month significantly off their recent highs. Adding to this were positive data releases from the US, Europe and China, all absent of any

The post Vimal Gor lifts his rate cuts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 09:11 Source

The post View from the pit appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 09:09 Source

Via UBS today: Consumer gloom vs business boom: who will win? Australia currently has an almost unprecedented divergence between business reporting booming conditions vs relatively gloomy consumers (Figure 1). Firstly, on the business side, a range of business surveys suggest conditions are around a cycle (or record) high. The key NAB business survey reported a

The post Consumer gloom vs business boom: who will win? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 09:07 Source

By Leith van Onselen Over the weekend, The AFR’s Andrew Clark penned an article arguing, in a roundabout way, that “immigration reform [is] the sleeper issue of the economy and Canberra warfare”: Immigration, a trigger issue for the Australian psyche, is emerging as a potential sleeper in the next federal election. According to Australia’s most

The post Immigration: the sleeper issue for our politicians appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 07:57 Source

Markets have seen some geopolitical volatility over my two week break. DXY has firmed while EUR has softened: The Aussie has been whacked against both: But has done better against other EMs: Gold is shining: Brent has been doing better than I expected with a higher shale breakeven than thought as shalers cut budgets: Base

The post Has the Australian dollar peaked? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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John Quiggin Monday, August 14, 2017 - 07:26 Source

Liberaltarianism

…..

This post (crossposted from Crooked Timber) is mainly an excuse for the pun in the title. But I do want to defend both parts of the pun.

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John Quiggin Monday, August 14, 2017 - 07:24 Source

Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Monday, August 14, 2017 - 06:00 Source

Monday 14 August 2017 Now about this Marriage Equality survey. It appears that because regular surveys by reputable pollsters show overwhelming support for Gay Marriage that Tony Abbott wants to change the subject, and turn it into a discussion about free speech, religious freedom or even political correctness. It’s a common ploy by politicians who…

The post Day to Day Politics: Abbott the peddler of verbal violence. appeared first on The AIM Network.

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Global Guerrillas Monday, August 14, 2017 - 03:29 Source

Charlottesville wasn't a standard protest.  It was a social blasting cap.  An open invitation to a public fist fight between the left and right.  A fight orchestrated to create widespread social disruption.  A fight the police didn't want to referee.  A fight that was allowed to escalate for hours. 
 
Aclu

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 00:21 Source

By Leith van Onselen In Friday’s opening statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, RBA Governor Phil Lowe argued that wages growth is likely to remain low both internationally and in Australia: The reasons for the low growth in wages are complex. The fact that it is a common experience across countries

The post Phil Lowe likes it both ways on wages growth appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, August 14, 2017 - 00:20 Source

The memory-free Australian press likes to couch Donald Trump as a random mad man taking America down untrodden paths to disaster. In truth he is something both more admirable and less easily confronted for the dependent ally. Leaders do not spring from holes in the ground. They are their political culture, parties and people manifest.

The post When a Superpower leads with its chin appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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