6:00 – Polls have just closed in the state by-election in the Western Australian seat of Darling Range. I expect we’ll start to see results in about half an hour. I’ll be running a booth-matching model tonight. For now the results tables are at the bottom but I’ll move them to the top once there is something useful within. In the meantime, why not take a read of my guide to this by-election?
Articles from The Tally Room
The Australian Electoral Commission released the final decisions for the Victorian federal redistribution earlier today. Most of the changes were very minor, with no seats experiencing a large change in margin. The switch of Dunkley from Liberal to notional Labor has been maintained.
There has been a lot of discussion recently about the lack of representation of women in the Liberal Party, and it got me thinking about what sort of seats tend to be represented by women. Do they tend to hold safer seats, or more marginal seats? I recently noticed that most coalition women hold marginal seats, in the context of Jane Prentice and Ann Sudmalis facing preselection threats.
I’ve just added two more datasets to the Tally Room data repository.
These datasets cover the results of the recent Tasmanian and South Australian state elections, including candidate lists, booth lists, and voting figures at the booth and seat level:
I’ve been continuing to post a seat guide every day recently, with fifteen more posted since I last posted on the front page. They tend to be safer Liberal seats, but there are still some interesting conversations:
My estimate at the end of Saturday night was that the Liberal Party had won 13 seats, Labor 8 and the Greens one, with three seats still in play: in Bass, Braddon and Franklin.
I don’t plan to follow these counts in minute detail but thankfully Kevin Bonham is doing this with separate posts for the five electorates. You can read those posts here:
Polls have now opened in the Tasmanian state election. Feel free to use this post to share interesting tidbits or developments throughout the day.
There’ll be another post at 6pm, although I’ll primarily be contributing to the Guardian.
Tasmania’s election is coming up this Saturday (check out my guide here!), and two recent polls suggest the campaign has shifted in favour of the Liberal Party.
Saturday’s Reachtel put the Liberal Party in the lead on 48%, followed by Labor on 32% and the Greens on 12.5%.
Today’s EMRS poll put the Liberal Party on 46%, followed by Labor on 34% and the Greens on 12%.