Articles from The Tally Room

Tasmanian preference distribution update – day one

The process of counting primary votes for the Tasmanian state election concluded yesterday, and we started to see preferences distributed in three of five electorates.

Tasmania doesn’t data-enter ballot papers like for most PR counts in Australia. Instead, each round of preference distributions is conducted and then reported successively.

This will likely mean that some seats that are not yet clear will become clear as the preferences distributions proceed.

Podcast #118: India goes to the polls

Ben is joined by Sofia Ammassari from Griffith University to discuss the upcoming Indian federal election.

The world’s largest democracy is going to the polls in April, May and June, with Narendra Modi’s BJP looking set for a third term in office.

We discuss the electoral system, major political issues and the Modi government’s recent history.

Comparing the Greens vote in Brisbane in 2022 and 2024

There’s been a lot of discussion comparing the recent City of Brisbane council election to the 2022 federal election. Both elections saw a high Greens vote. At the federal election, the Greens won three seats in the inner city of Brisbane, something which exceeded expectations. Expectations were higher at the council election, with talk of the Greens winning up to six wards. The Greens did gain a swing, and won a second ward, but the eventual results didn’t quite meet expectations.

Podcast #117: Tasmania elects a hung parliament

Ben is joined by Kevin Bonham to wrap up the Tasmanian state election. We discuss the close undecided races, what might come next for parliamentary negotiations, and what it means for May’s upper house election.

Tasmania 2024 – the close races

In this post I’m going to run through each seat in depth, explaining who I think has won and which seats are in play.

To summarise, at the moment I have 15 Liberals, 10 Labor, 5 Greens, 3 JLN and two independents in the lead.

Tasmania 2024 – Sunday morning wrap-up

There’s still a bunch of votes to count, and preferences will need to be distributed before some seats are decided, but there’s still a lot to say.

There was a very clear shift away from Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberal Party, who have suffered a swing of 11.9%, but little of that went to Labor, who have only gained a swing of 1%.

Tasmanian election night

Polls have just closed for the Tasmanian state election. Polls will also close in the Dunstan state by-election in South Australia in half an hour.

I won’t be liveblogging here tonight because I’ll be appearing on air on ABC Radio’s election night broadcast. You can hear it on ABC Hobart and ABC Northern Tasmania local radio, as well as ABC News Radio. The show will start at 7:30pm.

While I won’t be posting here, feel free to chat about the results in the comments.

Early voting trends in Tasmanian elections

As has become a regular story, there was an uptick in voters choosing to vote using other methods than turning up at a regular polling place to vote at the last Tasmanian state election.

Tasmania’s voters have been less likely to switch away from election day voting than in most other jurisdictions, but the direction of travel is the same.

How votes flow between parties in Tasmania

Analysing preference flows under a Hare-Clark system like that used in Tasmania is a lot more complex than a single-member electorate system. It isn’t simply a matter of a series of candidates being knocked out until two remain – different parties benefit from preferences at points in time before later giving away preferences of their own, and parties have multiple candidates with preferences that don’t always stay within the party ticket.

Podcast #116: Wrapping up Queensland’s local elections

Ben is joined by Maggie Perry from 6 News Australia to discuss the results of council elections and by-elections in Queensland. We mostly focus on the Brisbane City Council results, and also touch on the results of the two state by-elections and other local council elections.

Blogotariat

Oz Blog News Commentary