Articles from The Tally Room
Queensland is about to dive
Voters in the Queensland state seat of Toowoomba South voted today in a by-election to succeed Liberal National MP John McVeigh, who had resigned from the seat to run (successfully) for the federal seat of Groom.
I’d taken the night off after the last two weeks of counting so wasn’t able to cover it live, but there’s a few interesting things to look at in the result.
It’s now been two weeks since polls opened, and we are now getting very close to a conclusion of the House of Representatives count.
There is only one conventional seat still in play, which is Herbert. There will also be news today in Melbourne Ports which may either make the seat a serious seat in play or make it a clear Labor seat.
The Liberal National Party, at the time of writing late on Friday night, led by 12 votes in Herbert.
We’re getting close to the end! In this update, I am calling two more seats for Labor, leaving only one seat up for grabs.
This leaves a total of:
- 76 – Coalition
- 68 – Labor
- 5 – Others
- 1 – undecided
Current Labor lead
Projected Labor lead
Following yesterday’s post analysing the NSW, VIC and QLD Senate counts, here’s my analysis of Western Australia, South Australia and an update of the Tasmanian race.
Full quotas: 5 Liberal, 3 Labor, 1 Greens
Parties in the race:
Up until now, I’ve largely ignored preferences when working out who are the leading contenders for Senate seats. While the new system will likely make it impossible for parties on a tiny vote to jump ahead of a number of contenders, preferences are still likely to matter.
Sorry there was no update yesterday – I only have limited time each day and I devoted it to my takedown of electronic voting in the Guardian.
In today’s update I’m calling three more seats for the Coalition giving them 76 seats. Labor is leading and look likely to win two more, with Herbert extremely close.
I didn’t get a chance to do an update yesterday morning as I headed over to Moorebank to observe the NSW Senate count – I’ll come back to that topic soon with a post on the Senate race.
I’m calling Gilmore for the Coalition, as I flagged on Friday morning.