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Close seats – two weeks in

July 16, 2016 - 09:00 -- Admin

It’s now been two weeks since polls opened, and we are now getting very close to a conclusion of the House of Representatives count.

There is only one conventional seat still in play, which is Herbert. There will also be news today in Melbourne Ports which may either make the seat a serious seat in play or make it a clear Labor seat.


The Liberal National Party, at the time of writing late on Friday night, led by 12 votes in Herbert.

Close seats – Friday morning update

July 8, 2016 - 08:00 -- Admin

We’ve made some more progress yesterday, and I believe we can narrow this list from nine to seven seats today.

As a reminder, the first four columns of data in this spreadsheet represent the AEC’s official data on how many votes are left to be processed in each category (bearing in mind that pre-poll and absent numbers are expected to grow).

Seat summary

Close seats – Thursday morning update

July 7, 2016 - 08:05 -- Admin

Quite a bit of counting took place yesterday.

Yesterday we narrowed the list of seats to watch from 17 to 12, and today I think we can narrow that list to nine.

Seat summary

I’m ready to call Melbourne Ports for Labor and Grey and Dunkley for the Coalition. At the moment there are five seats which are extremely tight, and the rest look likely to break 72-68-5.

The seat categories are:

Close seat update – here’s the model

July 6, 2016 - 08:30 -- Admin

We saw a small amount of counting yesterday, but we should be able to narrow the list of undecided seats.

When I last posted, I listed 17 seats as in some doubt. This included 13 conventional Labor-Coalition races, plus Grey and Cowper, where we were waiting on a two-candidate-preferred count, Melbourne Ports where Labor is at a small risk of coming third and losing the seat, and Batman which is a reasonably conventional Labor-Greens race.

Seat summary