The New South Wales election process came to a close this morning when the button was pushed for the New South Wales Legislative Council, triggering the distribution of preferences. This count took over an hour, seemingly longer due to more voters marking preferences, and resulted in parties of the centre-left making ground in the final counting to win an extra seat off the centre-right compared to what primary votes would suggest.
Nominations for the federal election will close next Tuesday, April 23. This is the first full federal election since a massive number of federal MPs lost their seats in 2017 and 2018 due to ineligibility, mostly due to citizenship.
I just recently finished From Secret Ballot to Democracy Sausage by Judith Brett, and I thought it was an excellent read and would be of interest to the readers of this blog.
Scott Morrison visited the Governor-General early this morning, calling the federal election for May 18.
It’s unusual to call a federal election on a Thursday. It’s more typical for it to be called on a Sunday. There’s some good reasons why he’s going today, and they mostly revolve around a number of public holidays coming up in the next few weeks.
We are now very close to the end of counting for the NSW Legislative Council. The original plan was to finish data entry on Wednesday, with the button to be pushed on Friday morning. This has now been pushed back to Monday morning.
In this post I will run through the votes counted so far (which is most of them) and the possible role of preferences in deciding the final three seats.
Counting has now concluded for the Legislative Assembly as part of the New South Wales state election – the Legislative Council will be concluded on Friday.
In this post I am featuring a map of the two-candidate-preferred (2CP) vote across New South Wales at the booth level, as well as the 2CP swing where appropriate.
I have also assembled the new NSW post-election pendulum, which tells us something about the challenge in front of Labor in 2023.
While I’ve been focused on the NSW state election I’ve missed the start of the Northern Territory’s redistribution of the 25 electorates for the local Legislative Assembly. This is the third in a series of three posts analysing the prospects for redistributions, with the last two covering the Australian Capital Territory and Western Australia.
While I’ve been focusing on the NSW election, the list of people announcing for the federal election has been steadily increasing.
So far I’ve compiled a list of 667 people running for the House of Representatives, with a lot of help from Nick Casmirri as well as others posting on this website. You can view the list here.
While we’re all focused on the federal election and the recent NSW state election, a number of redistributions have been kicked off for Western Australian state elections and the territory Legislative Assemblies in the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory. I’ve already analysed the likely outcomes for the ACT redistribution, and I’ll be back later this week with an analysis of the NT redistribution.
I’ve been compiling booth maps of a bunch of the closest races. I have two more to post for Coogee and Upper Hunter. I don’t have a lot to say about these maps, but wanted to share them.