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NSW 2019 – Final upper house preference count

April 16, 2019 - 07:18 -- Admin

The New South Wales election process came to a close this morning when the button was pushed for the New South Wales Legislative Council, triggering the distribution of preferences. This count took over an hour, seemingly longer due to more voters marking preferences, and resulted in parties of the centre-left making ground in the final counting to win an extra seat off the centre-right compared to what primary votes would suggest.

Federal election called

April 11, 2019 - 08:26 -- Admin

Scott Morrison visited the Governor-General early this morning, calling the federal election for May 18.

It’s unusual to call a federal election on a Thursday. It’s more typical for it to be called on a Sunday. There’s some good reasons why he’s going today, and they mostly revolve around a number of public holidays coming up in the next few weeks.

NSW 2019 – upper house count nears its end

April 10, 2019 - 22:01 -- Admin

We are now very close to the end of counting for the NSW Legislative Council. The original plan was to finish data entry on Wednesday, with the button to be pushed on Friday morning. This has now been pushed back to Monday morning.

In this post I will run through the votes counted so far (which is most of them) and the possible role of preferences in deciding the final three seats.

NSW 2019 – lower house swing map and new pendulum

April 10, 2019 - 07:34 -- Admin

Counting has now concluded for the Legislative Assembly as part of the New South Wales state election – the Legislative Council will be concluded on Friday.

In this post I am featuring a map of the two-candidate-preferred (2CP) vote across New South Wales at the booth level, as well as the 2CP swing where appropriate.

I have also assembled the new NSW post-election pendulum, which tells us something about the challenge in front of Labor in 2023.

WA state redistribution – starting numbers

April 5, 2019 - 08:12 -- Admin

While we’re all focused on the federal election and the recent NSW state election, a number of redistributions have been kicked off for Western Australian state elections and the territory Legislative Assemblies in the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory. I’ve already analysed the likely outcomes for the ACT redistribution, and I’ll be back later this week with an analysis of the NT redistribution.