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The state of play this morning

May 19, 2019 - 09:00 -- Admin

As my first post today I thought I would summarise the state of play in the House of Representatives.

As of last night I had called 141 seats as part of my analysis at the Guardian. This includes 72 Coalition seats and 63 Labor seats, as well as six crossbench seats – the five won at the 2016 election plus Warringah.

Election night live

May 18, 2019 - 18:00 -- Admin

6:00 – Polls have just closed in 123 electorates on Australia’s east coast. Polls will close in 12 electorates in South Australia and the Northern Territory in 30 minutes, followed ninety minutes later by the remaining 16 electorates in Western Australia.

I will be regularly dropping in her to post broad updates on the results, but you can also find my analysis on the Guardian’s live blog.

Election day thread

May 18, 2019 - 08:00 -- Admin

Polls have just opened on the east coast in the 2019 Australian federal election. The handful of Australians who are yet to cast a pre-poll vote will be voting today in an election expected to be relatively close.

The latest polls have Labor in the lead, but not by much. The most recent Ipsos and Galaxy polls both give Labor 51% of the two-party-preferred vote, with Essential on 51.5%. Finally Newspoll has given a small boost to Labor, giving them 51.5% of the 2PP vote.

Federal 2019 – the race in regional Victoria

May 17, 2019 - 13:00 -- Admin

In this post I’m looking at the 13 electorates that I have defined as “regional Victoria”. This includes the major provincial cities of Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat, as well as the seats of Casey and La Trobe on the eastern edge of Melbourne (which some commenters have argued should have been included in my Melbourne analysis).

This area includes four Labor seats, five Liberal seats, three Nationals seats and one independent seat.

Federal 2019 – the race in regional Queensland

May 15, 2019 - 12:30 -- Admin

There are ten seats in Queensland outside of the south-eastern corner, including central and northern Queensland plus a handful of seats further inland. The Liberal National Party holds eight of these seats, along with one Labor and one seat held by Katter’s Australian Party, but a number of these LNP seats are in play at this election.

There are five marginal seats I’m paying attention to in this post.

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