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NSW 2019 – upper house count, week two

April 2, 2019 - 09:53 -- Admin

We’re now in the second of three weeks of counting for the New South Wales Legislative Council and we’re getting a decent chunk of votes counted.

As of Monday evening, over a million votes have been counted in the check count (the one that includes below-the-line votes and all groups’ above-the-line votes). I estimate this is about 21.6% of the final count, assuming the same turnout we saw in 2015.

NSW 2019 – the results map for the north coast

April 1, 2019 - 16:10 -- Admin

Lismore has turned out to be one of Labor’s only gains at the recent state election. Labor outpolled the Greens on primary votes by 1.42%, which is expected to be enough to hold on after preferences, producing a two-party-preferred outcome of 51.5%.

The neighbouring seat of Ballina was also interesting, although it didn’t end up being close. Greens MP Tamara Smith increased her margin to 5%, thanks to a 1.8% swing.

NSW 2019 – the inner west moves apart

March 28, 2019 - 09:41 -- Admin

The inner west of Sydney has been a key battleground at NSW state elections since at least 2003, when the Greens first made a serious attempt to win the seats of Port Jackson and Marrickville. Yet something has changed this year, with the focus shifting elsewhere. There was some (incorrect) speculation about Balmain being in play, but the Greens’ marginal seats were all on the north coast.

NSW 2019 – the impact of minor parties on Labor and the Greens

March 25, 2019 - 13:30 -- Admin

It is far too early to assess the impact of any party on the upper house, in particular parties like Sustainable Australia and Keep Sydney Open who have not yet had a single one of their upper house votes counted. Even for other parties like the Greens we can’t judge how big the “swing” will be until we know how many of the ‘others’ votes are below the line or informal. But we can answer some questions about their impact.

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