The Tasmanian election is due to be held by May 2018 – and if the last three elections are any guide, the election will likely be held in March.
In addition to the South Australian guide posted on Monday, I’ve now completed a similar guide for the five Tasmanian state electorates.
Here are the links to the five electorate guides:
Last week, I posted data showing the Nick Xenophon Team vote at the 2016 Senate election broken down by state electorate.
As we near the conclusion of 2017’s election season, with the Bennelong by-election this weekend, I have finished my first major guide for 2018: for the South Australian state election on March 17.
I have completed seat guides for all 47 electorates, as well as a guide to the Legislative Council and summaries of the key seats and the redistribution.
On Tuesday, I published estimates of the Senate vote at the 2016 federal election for the Nick Xenophon Team, broken down by South Australian state electorates.
Thanks to everyone who signed up to my Patreon after my post yesterday morning. I’ve almost achieved my basic goal of 20 patrons to keep the website running, but I’d like to reach the stretch goal of 30 patrons to expand the reach of the website in 2018. Thanks to everyone who can chip in!
I’ve been running this website now for just over nine years, and in that time I’ve put in thousands of hours of work, in particular making election guides and electoral boundary maps, more recently expanding into producing clean election results datasets free for use.
A handful of much-appreciated readers have been donating a small monthly amount for a while now, but it’s only just enough to cover the financial cost of running the web server.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in New England. I’ll be live blogging the results here as they come in.
Well that was an interesting election night! Almost one third of seats have a candidate other than Labor or the LNP in the top two, with a few others where a minor party is threatening for the top two. We also have numerous seats where it is very unclear who will come in second place (ala Prahran 2014), so those seats will likely drag on for numerous days.
I thought I’d run through my assessment of where the seats stand, and what information we are lacking for each seat.
6:59pm – Blacktown is predictably uninteresting, with Labor on 71.7% of the primary vote.
6:58pm – With over 7000 primary votes counted in Murray, the Nationals lead with 43.5% to 33.3% to the Shooters. We also have about 1500 votes distributed for two-candidate-preferred, and the Nationals are barely leading with 50.4%.
There are four by-elections coming up in the next six weeks in Australia’s two largest states.
I posted guides to two of these four by-elections last month, and the other two guides have now been posted. I’ve also added candidate lists for the first two.