Federal election prediction thread
I don’t have another idea for today’s blog post, so why don’t we use this as a thread for everyone to make their final predictions.
Articles from The Tally Room
Primary tabs
How wide is the hung parliament zone?
Primary votes for major parties have hit a record low, and they may break that record this weekend. There are also more crossbenchers in the House of Representatives than ever before, with numerous other credible candidates threatening to produce an even larger crossbench in the new parliament. Certainly there is a lot of talk about a hung parliament.
Podcast #147: What might a hung parliament look like?
Ben is joined by Peter Brent and the ABC’s Tom Crowley for the final pre-election episode of the 2025 federal election campaign. We discuss how a hung parliament might play out and the experience of riding Peter Dutton’s campaign bus. For our seat of the week we discuss the NSW seat of Werriwa.
How results play out across election night
This blog post is an update to two blog posts I wrote in 2022, looking at the rate of counting progress on election night and how the primary vote for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens shifts over the course of the night.
How do results vary between election day and early voting?
As increasing numbers of Australians have chosen to vote early, we have now reached a point where the country is split roughly into two halves – one half voting before election day, through pre-poll voting, postal voting and remote booths, and the other half casting their vote on the day.
Early voting is holding at very high levels
Rates of early voting have been increasing for a long time, but reached a record high level of 2022, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. I most recently summarised these statistics at a federal level in this blog post.
How will the states swing?
Australia’s states often swing in different ways, with trends noticeable at the state level rather than just at the state or regional level. For this reason, I usually choose to measure 2PP results against the state result, rather than the national result.
At the 2010 federal election, the Coalition gained swings in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, but Labor actually gained ground in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.
Podcast #146: The dropping major party vote
Ben is joined by Jill Sheppard and Emily Foley to discuss the long-term trend of the major parties losing primary votes: what is causing the trend, how it might play out in 2025 and whether they can do anything to reverse the trend. The seat of the week is Bruce in south-eastern Melbourne.
Where might sophomore surge have an impact in 2025?
In yesterday’s blog post I analysed the historical evidence for sophomore surge having an impact in Australian federal elections, dating back to 1998.
“Sophomore surge” refers to the phenomenon of a first-term MP performing relatively better than other candidates for their party, doubly so if they defeated a former MP from another party at the previous election.
What’s the historical evidence for sophomore surge?
I have referenced the concept of “personal vote” and “sophomore surge” quite a few times during this campaign, and in the past, but I thought it would be useful to actually collect data and analyse how much of an effect we can detect from the swings data.