I will be giving a talk at a conference on the one-year anniversary of the marriage law postal survey at ANU in November, and for this talk I’ve put together a paper analysing the strongest demographic correlations which can help explain who voted which way in the marriage survey.
A story in the Sydney Morning Herald this morning discussed how Kerryn Phelps would keep up doing both her jobs as a City of Sydney councillor and federal MP if (as expected) she comes out the winner in last weekend’s by-election.
Ben talked to Peter Brent in a mini-episode about yesterday’s Wentworth by-election.
Some links if you want to read more about the by-election:
Since I posted last night, we had some shifts in the count following the inclusion of pre-poll votes. In short, it is no longer certain Kerryn Phelps will win. We are awaiting the results of the postal votes, which could see Dave Sharma win if he does well. On the other hand, there’s also reason to suspect a counting error in two booths which may be underestimated Phelps’ vote.
Tonight’s election result was very clear. A massive swing against the Liberal Party has pushed the Morrison coalition government into a minority position, with Dave Sharma losing a seat held by the conservative major party since federation, despite a 17.7% margin built up by former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Wentworth by-election. Don’t expect much in the way of results for at least 45 minutes, but I’ll be tracking the results here all night.
Polls have just opened in the federal by-election in the seat of Wentworth in the eastern suburbs of Sydney. I’ll be back at 6pm to cover the results, but until then enjoy this open thread.
You may like to read my guide to today’s by-election.
Apologies for this, I was planning to publish a podcast today about the Wentworth campaign and Victoria but some technical issues mean it won’t be happening. I plan to put out a post-by-election podcast this Sunday then we’ll be back in two weeks with a show all about Victoria.
Some of my more committed readers may have noticed that this website was unavailable late on Saturday night. Basically an attempt to install a new mobile theme screwed up the website and it took some time to fix the damage.
Ben is joined by William Bowe and Georgia Tkachuk to discuss the Wentworth by-election and to begin discussing the Victorian state election.