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Articles from The Tally Room

WA 2021 – election day

March 13, 2021 - 11:00 -- Admin

It’s now 8am in Western Australia, and polls have just opened for election day. We’re expecting a record low proportion of Western Australian voters casting their vote on election day, thanks to record numbers of pre-poll and postal votes.

WA 2021 – what’s your guess?

March 12, 2021 - 11:00 -- Admin

Election day is tomorrow in Western Australia.

We haven’t had any more proper polling since the Newspoll three weeks ago which gave Labor 68% of the two-party-preferred vote. Overall, we haven’t had much polling for this election. It’s quite likely that 68% poll is an outlier, but we don’t really have much else.

WA 2021 – the not-so-level playing field for the upper house

March 8, 2021 - 14:51 -- Admin

Australia has a long history of electoral systems that slant the playing field in favour of particular ideological positions, favouring certain voters over others. Limiting the vote to people with property was common in the mid-19th century, and survived in some upper houses well into the 20th century.

It was also very common for rural electorates to be drawn with smaller populations than urban electorates, or for boundaries to be left unchanged as urban populations boomed.

WA 2021 – the shape of the swing

March 1, 2021 - 11:55 -- Admin

By now we all know to expect a landslide victory for WA Labor in this month’s state election. The polls predict it, and even the Liberal leader has acknowledged it.

But I want to put what might happen in context by looking at what happened in 2017, which seats flipped, and how that compared to previous elections.

There hasn’t been a single election since 1980 which has seen a swing anywhere near as big as we saw in Western Australia in 2017.

Queensland 2020 – new data showing change in method of voting

February 19, 2021 - 10:08 -- Admin

I spent some time over the summer compiling new datasets for some of the elections held in 2020. At the moment I have published the data for the Queensland and ACT elections as well as a dataset containing results from Queensland state by-elections from 1996 to 2020 and I’ve also updated my Tasmanian Legislative Council dataset to include 2019 and 2020. I am still planning to add datasets for the Northern Territory, Brisbane City Council and New Zealand, but they will have to wait.

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