Oz Blog News Commentary

Articles from The Tally Room

NSW 2019 – mapping the swings

March 24, 2019 - 14:30 -- Admin

This is the first of a number of blog posts I’ll be rolling out over today and tomorrow.

I thought I’d start by attempting to map out the swings. This is a difficult task because quite a lot of votes (mostly pre-poll votes) haven’t been counted yet. So for my first set of maps I have used the estimated 2CP swings and 2CP margins in each seat calculated by Antony Green’s ABC model.

NSW 2019 – what would a hung parliament be like?

March 22, 2019 - 07:14 -- Admin

You can treat this as an opportunity to post your last-minute election predictions.

There’s a growing consensus that the most likely outcome in tomorrow’s election is a hung parliament. That’s certainly the opinion of the bookmakers.

But what would that hung parliament look like? The hung parliament’s results could vary wildly depending on tomorrow’s results.

NSW 2019 – will we see “Just Vote 1” on Saturday?

March 21, 2019 - 07:59 -- Admin

New South Wales elections are different to the rest of Australia. In all other federal and state lower house elections featuring single-member electorates, we use compulsory preferential voting (CPV) – you need to number every box for your vote to count.

For NSW state elections, we use optional preferential voting (OPV). You can number multiple boxes if you wish, but a ‘1’ is sufficient.

NSW 2019 – final how-to-votes released

March 19, 2019 - 07:53 -- Admin

We received a flood of new information about the state election yesterday morning at 8am, when the NSW Electoral Commission published every piece of electoral material registered to be used on election day (mostly how-to-votes).

It’s taken quite some time to open all of the relevant how-to-votes and assemble a dataset (which I will share) which can be used to make broader statements about how parties are preferencing.