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Close seats – Friday morning update

July 8, 2016 - 08:00 -- Admin

We’ve made some more progress yesterday, and I believe we can narrow this list from nine to seven seats today.

As a reminder, the first four columns of data in this spreadsheet represent the AEC’s official data on how many votes are left to be processed in each category (bearing in mind that pre-poll and absent numbers are expected to grow).

Seat summary

Close seats – Thursday morning update

July 7, 2016 - 08:05 -- Admin

Quite a bit of counting took place yesterday.

Yesterday we narrowed the list of seats to watch from 17 to 12, and today I think we can narrow that list to nine.

Seat summary

I’m ready to call Melbourne Ports for Labor and Grey and Dunkley for the Coalition. At the moment there are five seats which are extremely tight, and the rest look likely to break 72-68-5.

The seat categories are:

Close seat update – here’s the model

July 6, 2016 - 08:30 -- Admin

We saw a small amount of counting yesterday, but we should be able to narrow the list of undecided seats.

When I last posted, I listed 17 seats as in some doubt. This included 13 conventional Labor-Coalition races, plus Grey and Cowper, where we were waiting on a two-candidate-preferred count, Melbourne Ports where Labor is at a small risk of coming third and losing the seat, and Batman which is a reasonably conventional Labor-Greens race.

Seat summary

Pauline Hanson and the old Senate system

July 5, 2016 - 09:52 -- Admin

There’s been a lot of arguments coming out suggesting that Pauline Hanson and the rest of her team are only contenders for seats thanks to the Senate voting reforms, and the double dissolution.

Clearly a double dissolution made it easier for all small parties, including One Nation, and you can argue that a double dissolution was made possible thanks to Senate voting reform (although it wasn’t necessary to do both).