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NSW 2019 – lower house swing map and new pendulum

April 10, 2019 - 07:34 -- Admin

Counting has now concluded for the Legislative Assembly as part of the New South Wales state election – the Legislative Council will be concluded on Friday.

In this post I am featuring a map of the two-candidate-preferred (2CP) vote across New South Wales at the booth level, as well as the 2CP swing where appropriate.

I have also assembled the new NSW post-election pendulum, which tells us something about the challenge in front of Labor in 2023.

WA state redistribution – starting numbers

April 5, 2019 - 08:12 -- Admin

While we’re all focused on the federal election and the recent NSW state election, a number of redistributions have been kicked off for Western Australian state elections and the territory Legislative Assemblies in the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory. I’ve already analysed the likely outcomes for the ACT redistribution, and I’ll be back later this week with an analysis of the NT redistribution.

NSW 2019 – upper house count, week two

April 2, 2019 - 09:53 -- Admin

We’re now in the second of three weeks of counting for the New South Wales Legislative Council and we’re getting a decent chunk of votes counted.

As of Monday evening, over a million votes have been counted in the check count (the one that includes below-the-line votes and all groups’ above-the-line votes). I estimate this is about 21.6% of the final count, assuming the same turnout we saw in 2015.

NSW 2019 – the results map for the north coast

April 1, 2019 - 16:10 -- Admin

Lismore has turned out to be one of Labor’s only gains at the recent state election. Labor outpolled the Greens on primary votes by 1.42%, which is expected to be enough to hold on after preferences, producing a two-party-preferred outcome of 51.5%.

The neighbouring seat of Ballina was also interesting, although it didn’t end up being close. Greens MP Tamara Smith increased her margin to 5%, thanks to a 1.8% swing.