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TPP hangs on a knife edge in US House

June 2, 2015 - 11:23 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen The last realistic hope for scuttling the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement – the US House of Representatives vote on whether to grant President Obama so-called “Fast Track” authority so that the President can negotiate an agreement and have Congress pass it without amendment – is on a knife edge, with entrenched

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Consumer confidence flatlines

June 2, 2015 - 10:32 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen The ANZ-Roy Morgan Research consumer confidence index was unchanged in the week ended 31 May, remaining at 113.5  – marginally above the long-run average of 113.2 (see next chart). According to chief economist, Warren Hogan, confidence is being upheld by positive reactions to the federal budget as well as continued house

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When is the next rate cut?

June 2, 2015 - 09:54 -- Admin

From Forexlive: Here’s a quickie from some of the banks on what they expect. They are all ‘on hold’ for today … Citigroup are looking for a 25bps cut before year-end Macquarie – 25bps cut in November Nomura are also in the 25bps cut in November camp RBC Capital  say there is a cut coming 25bps cut in late 2015

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Treasury admits super reform is inevitable

June 2, 2015 - 09:44 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen It seems that along with Treasurer Joe Hockey,  John Fraser is another unwilling participant in Tony Abbott’s “strategic” captain’s call not to touch Australia’s wasteful and inequitable superannuation concessions. Appearing at the Senate estimates committee hearing in Canberra yesterday, Fraser all but admitted that superannuation reform is inevitable, given its growing

Joye: Bubble to grow forever!

June 2, 2015 - 09:43 -- Admin

Chris Joye chimes in on the bubble debate: The biggest bubbles also tend to be accompanied by manic buying (tick that box), backed by high leverage (tick) and hyperbolic defences (tick) of the crazy prices (tick again). My next door neighbours traded their Sydney property, which recent sales implied was worth no more than $4.4

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Bubbles Kohler exposed

June 2, 2015 - 09:04 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen Dad’s Army’s  Alan Kohler really doesn’t seem to give a stuff about Australia’s youth. In September last year, he gave an extraordinary video interview whereby he cheered on Australian house prices and effectively told first home buyers to eat shit. While there were many disgraceful quotes in that interview, these ones

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Macro Morning (ISM power)

June 2, 2015 - 08:07 -- Admin

By Chris Becker A solid ISM Manufacturing print gave the US Dollar and US markets a small bounce overnight, but the Greek debt situation continues to weigh in Europe, where the Troika yet again met in secret to discuss the once-sovereign state’s future as a rolling series of debt payments begins this Friday. Recapping Asia’s

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Abbott captain calls Sydney bubble higher

June 2, 2015 - 04:34 -- Admin

It is quite clear that Australian financial regulators have made a group decision to jawbone the Hell out of the housing market to help the RBA keep a lid on prices while cutting rates to lower the dollar. In recent weeks the heads of the RBA, ASIC, APRA and Treasury have all issued very blunt warnings to overheated

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Abbott polls stuck in the mud

June 2, 2015 - 04:04 -- Admin

It’s polling day and the news for the Abbott Government is not especially good. Newspoll has the Government clawing back one point on two party preferred but it is basically going sideways in a losing position: Shorten’s support is slipping but is still very high for an opposition leader. Roy Morgan is out too and

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D&B business expectations hit “brick wall”

June 2, 2015 - 00:38 -- Admin

As I’ve said many times the Dun and Bradstreet Business Expectations survey is more a real time indicator than a leading index but it ain’t travelling well either way: That’s your roll over right there. What is most unsettling is that this is a services indicator so is supposed to be where the uplift is going to come from. The Kouk

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