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Deustche: Australia’s neutral cash rate is 1.75% not 3.5%

July 21, 2017 - 10:31 -- Admin

You know my view but try Deutsche’ excellent Adam Boynton: A funding challenge? AUD/USD has recently broken out of the top of the range it has traded in for over a year. Despite that, and despite the recent RBA repricing in Australia, the 10-year spread to the US remains below the highs of ~55bp seen

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Better jobs, not wages

July 21, 2017 - 10:15 -- Admin

Via UBS: Overall, employment remains very strong & clearly improved in recent months, with 2% y/y the best in over 2 years, ~consistent with positive lead indicators. Unemployment also fell in recent months to a cycle low of 5.6%. This supports the RBA’s ‘positive’ outlook in their minutes. But, the onus is on jobs and

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Australia dollar rockets still on fire

July 21, 2017 - 10:01 -- Admin

DXY is sinking like a stone: The driver is EUR which has broken out big: AUD sold yesterday afternoon but is still afire: Gold was firm but is still weak relative to DXY weakness: Brent was soft: Base metals mixed: Big miners sank: EM stocks stalled: Lead by high yield: US bonds were bid: And

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NZ immigration hits another record high

July 21, 2017 - 09:39 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its permanent & long-term migration figures for June 2017, which revealed that annual net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand hit a record high 72,305 people over the year: According to Statistics New Zealand, migrant arrivals were a record high 131,400 in the June 2017

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Measuring the native title claim on Fortescue

July 21, 2017 - 09:30 -- Admin

Via Morgan Stanley: 1st Take: The Federal Court on July 20, recognized native title rights and interests over a large area of the Pilbara in WA that includes FMG’s Solomon Hub (70Mt of 170Mt production). The company responded to the news stating the decision has no impact on the current and future operations or mining

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Macro Morning

July 21, 2017 - 09:30 -- Admin

By Chris Becker   While tech stocks advanced in the US, the ECB’s lack of defining language and continued accommodation kept the Euro elevated and European shares depressed. The US domestic political imbroglio kept the major industrial stocks at bay, as hot money went to bonds and out of the USD again on the safe haven

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Labor immigration extremism threatens inequality agenda

July 21, 2017 - 08:29 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen In yesterday’s address at the 2017 Economic & Social Outlook Conference, Labor treasury spokesman, Chris Bowen, launched a classic straw man argument against cutting Australia’s mass immigration program, disingenuously conflating the issue with rising global trade protectionism [my emphasis]: This brings me to the broader context in which the budget debate

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The Greens are in serious trouble

July 21, 2017 - 05:51 -- Admin

Via The Australian: Greens leader Richard Di Natale­ is facing dire warnings of a slide in his party’s popular support with a leaked internal analysis showing it is on track to lose three of its nine Senate seats, as it reels from the loss of two of its most popular senators. Sounding the alarm over

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David Murray chooses his side (and it ain’t yours)

July 21, 2017 - 05:49 -- Admin

After being suspicious of David Murray when he first emerged as the spearhead of reform for Australia’s banking architecture, we were pleasantly surprised to find he showed great sense and integrity in his inquiry. But, since the announcement of the bank levy, he’s gotten very conflicted and confused, suddenly repudiating positions he held in his

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