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The folly of good debt vs bad debt

May 5, 2017 - 10:48 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen Former ACCC head, Allan Fels, is the latest to lampoon the Coalition’s “good debt”/”bad debt” idea, arguing that many areas of recurrent government expenditure, like spending on mental health, can actually be “good”. From The Australian: The examples provided of investments that could be funded by “good debt” have largely referred

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Morgan Stanley: This is not 2015

May 5, 2017 - 10:48 -- Admin

Morgan Stanley has come clear thinking today: Bottom line: We expect the DXY to break higher, led by JPY and commodity FX weakness. Tactically we turn neutral on EM FX, but regard this setback as a pause within a medium-term uptrend. DM risk appetite should remain strong, benefiting currencies where central banks are considering tightening

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Coalition in-fighting over Gonski 2.0 heats up

May 5, 2017 - 09:49 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen After Coalition backbench MPs, led by Tony Abbott, howled outrage yesterday over the Turnbull Government’s revamped $18.6 billion “Gonski 2.0” needs-based school funding plan, former education minister Christopher Pyne has hit back. From The Australian: Former prime minister Tony Abbott said it was “absolutely imperative” for the government to respect independent and

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Domainfax losing listings to REA?

May 5, 2017 - 09:47 -- Admin

Via Deutsche:  Introducing Value Ad— Value Ad is our new regular product covering all of our proprietary ad counts, web traffic stats and KPIs for REA, SEK, CAR & Domain (FXJ). Ad counts provide a very timely indicator of revenue trends for online classifieds companies. Issue 1 includes 30 charts, and will be expanded

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Why Australia might already be in recession

May 5, 2017 - 09:37 -- Admin

Believe it or not! Via UBS: Mar trade surplus falls more than expected to $3.1bn, after near-record $3.7bn The trade surplus disappointed by falling back a bit more than consensus expected in Mar-17 to (a still large) $3.1bn (UBS: $4.0bn, mkt: $3.3bn), albeit after upward revisions across the prior 4 months, with Feb-17 now the

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Macro Morning

May 5, 2017 - 09:30 -- Admin

By Chris Becker   The commodity rout continues with oil slammed overnight on a lack of buyers as OPEC twiddles its thumbs while gold fell to a new monthly low, breaking its uptrend from the Xmas rally low. US earnings are still trickling in strong enough to keep US markets buoyant and risk managers happy

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Time to buy iron ore miners?

May 5, 2017 - 09:24 -- Admin

True from Macqaurie:  The annual SGX Iron ore week in Singapore was very well attended as usual last week, and the outlook between market participants was generally more optimistic near term than we had expected. However the general view for the second half of the year was largely in line with our more bearish

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Mining GFC 2.0 roars as oil breaks

May 5, 2017 - 06:37 -- Admin

DXY was soft, euro strong: Commodity currencies were flogged: Gold was crushed: Brent broke: Base metals sagged: Big miners cliff-jumped: EM stocks reversed: High yield too: But here’s the kicker, US yields rose: And European spreads contracted: Plus stocks were strong in the face of it all: So, as expected all year, global reflation is

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Strayan economic managers party as recession 2018 looms

May 5, 2017 - 05:44 -- Admin

Treasurer Scott Morrison’s declaration that the great Australian adjustment is over has lasted for a full four days. Recall: Treasurer Scott Morrison says governments can build infrastructure projects more cheaply and effectively than the private sector, justifying the “good debt” focus of his second budget that next week will foreshadow a turning point to “better

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How come the RBA can’t say “cut immigration”?

May 5, 2017 - 00:12 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen RBA Governor Phil Lowe’s speech yesterday on household debt an house prices once again pinned Australia’s housing woes on the imbalance between supply and demand, as housing and infrastructure has failed to match strong population growth: The supply of well-located housing and land in our cities has been constrained by a

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