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Weekend Reading 8-9 December 2018

December 7, 2018 - 23:30 -- Admin

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Investors withdraw billions from US equity funds – FT Wild market swings hinge on a different kind of leverage – FT Greenhouse Gas Emissions Accelerate Like a ‘Speeding Freight Train’ in 2018 – NY Times The moral assumptions embedded in economic models of climate change – The Economist Deutsche

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Macro Afternoon

December 7, 2018 - 17:00 -- Admin

It’s been a relatively good finish to the trading week here in Asia despite epic overseas volatility with stock markets putting scratch sessions or slightly higher closes. The currency and bond markets are poised for tonight’s US unemployment print, the result of which hinges on the Fed’s next interest rate move. The Shanghai Composite has escaped

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Bill Evans: RBA to drop tightening bias, stay on hold

December 7, 2018 - 15:00 -- Admin

I still have a third hypothetical bet open with Bill Evans that the next move in rates is down (having won the first two, not that he knows about it). I reckon the RBA will be cutting by June 2019. It would be earlier if not for the elections.

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Property locusts swarm FHBs towards falling knife!

December 7, 2018 - 14:30 -- Admin

There’s a locust plague at News: Buyer’s agent Nick Viner believes now is the time to buy in Sydney and Melbourne, with many discounted premium properties available with minimal competition. “This environment is the absolute perfect time to buy because you’ve got more time to consider your options and there’s more choice in terms of

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Joye: Housing bust a miracle

December 7, 2018 - 14:00 -- Admin

From our Chris today: To APRA’s immense credit, it has managed to pull off a minor miracle: bursting the bubble during the boom. Debelle has previously noted that there was no evidence of a wealth effect, or positive feedback loop into consumption, during the upswing when Melbourne and Sydney house prices surged 50 per cent

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Samarco restart in 2020

December 7, 2018 - 13:30 -- Admin

Via Argues: Brazil’s Samarco mine is likely to restart in early 2020, bringing a major source of high-grade iron ore back into the market, mining company Vale’s chief executive Fabio Schvartsman said today. “The worst part seems to be behind us,” Schvartsman said of the process to bring Samarco back on line after a fatal

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Shorten again endorses negative gearing reform

December 7, 2018 - 12:45 -- Admin

Via the AFR: As Sydney and Melbourne house prices continue to fall, Mr Shorten signalled that an originally planned July 1, 2019 start date could be deferred until 2020. He said Labor remained committed to its three-year policy of reforming negative gearing to make the system fairer for first-home buyers against investors who now receive

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Bull trap banks pick up yield bid

December 7, 2018 - 12:30 -- Admin

AUD is still struggling through the morning: Bonds are paring gains but yields are now trending down nicely. More to come: ASX is hanging on at the cliff’s edge: Dalian has opened with a minor bid: Big Iron likewise: Big Gas is hopeful of an OPEC rescue. I am not: Big Gold has a Fed

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Roy Morgan unemployment 9.5% in November

December 7, 2018 - 12:15 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen The latest Roy Morgan Research (RMR) unemployment estimate for October remained unchanged at 9.4% but fell 0.3% over the year: Below are the key points from the release: Australian unemployment is 9.5% (down 0.3%) and under-employment is 7.7% (down 0.7%) are both down on a year ago driving a 1% fall

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