ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index has languished below the neutral 100 mark for more than three years, the longest and deepest stretch this century. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index last reached positive territory above 100 in March 2022, just before the Albanese government was elected into office. “Low confidence isn’t just a mood
The ferrous complex is looking toppy. Yesterday’s June data was bad for Chinese steel. The only conclusion one can draw from this chart is that deep output cuts are underway. Private data is not capturing it. The decline of green steel continues. But both BOF and EAF output have topped at the mid-year peak well
Last month, credit ratings firm S&P estimated that Australia’s state and federal governments’ combined budget deficits totalled $52 billion, with net debt exceeding 60% of GDP. This translates to a $1,897 per capita deficit and a net debt of $45,183 per person. Meanwhile, the aggregate net debt of the federal, state, and territorial governments is
DXY is back and EUR is trash. AUD has a nasty double top. Lead boots are OK. Gold and oil are in trouble. Ditto metals. Big mining rotation, my butt. EM pumped and dumped. Junk is warning. As yields spike. Nasdaq also pumped and dumped. US inflation was pretty good at 0.3% MoM and +2.7%
All eyes were on the release of the latest US CPI print which accelerated over the year showing that the Trump regime’s tariff crusade is beginning to have an effect on domestic inflation. This is just the start as the full effect has not been seen yet, with the core goods CPI print had its
Roy Morgan has published its annual survey measuring the levels of trust and distrust that Australians have in the economy. Roy Morgan claims that Australia is becoming a “fragile nation”, with distrust in the entire economy rising, consumer confidence remaining in the doldrums for three years, and the nation’s social fabric under continuous stress. The
A meeting of the national cabinet in August 2023 agreed on a target of 1.2 million new homes to be built between 1 July 2024 and 1 July 2029. This 1.2 million target requires 240,000 homes to be constructed every year, which is a level that is around 7% higher than the record single-year construction
The uneasy start to the trading week continues as markets weigh up the recent EU and Mexican tariff letters from the Trump regime while also awaiting tonight’s US CPI print that is sure to define risk for the rest of the month. The USD was up slightly after the weekend gap but is stalling out
In Q1 2025, New Zealand’s economy unexpectedly grew by 0.8%, surpassing the Reserve Bank’s forecast of 0.4%. However, as illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, New Zealand’s GDP still declined by 0.7% year on year. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand responded by keeping the official cash rate (OCR) on hold at 3.25%
The Market Ear on more possible buyers. What’s not to like…? Equities may be at all-time highs, but positioning and sentiment still don’t scream euphoria. With neutral fund flows, massive sidelined cash, and no real signs of exuberance, the setup supports a potential melt-up — especially if CTAs, volatility traders, and retail all step in.