DXY is breaking out still. AUD rebounded in its fading trend. CNY meh. Gold trying to hold. AI metals a better day. The chosen one bounced. EM too. Junk held. But there’s trouble in them thar yields. Stocks rose anyway. I remain cautious on the crap complex—commodities, EM, AUD—while the bond backup and rising DXY
Exclusively from Gerard Minack. Australia remains stuck in a macro rut as anaemic investment spending is stretched by a fast growing population. The result is sluggish capital-to-labour growth and – remarkably – falling labour productivity. The implication is that real wages cannot rise without creating inflation pressures. Macro stagnation has gone together with falling corporate
Risk markets were in buy the dip mode overnight as Wall Street rebounded after speculation that tariff relief maybe around the corner alongside better than expected US economic data. European stocks also came back slightly while a build up in US domestic supplies saw oil prices pushed back to weekly lows. The USD had small
Cotality’s house price results for October noted that values are growing more strongly at the lower-to-middle end of the market. Across the combined capital cities, dwelling values in October rose by 1.4% across the middle market and by 1.2% across the lower quartile, while the upper quartile values increased by only 0.7% over the month.
The fallout from last night’s selloff on Wall Street has hit most of Asian markets in today’s session although local shares escaped the carnage following yesterday’s hold from the RBA. The USD reversed slightly against some of the major currency pairs particularly the Australian dollar although the Canadian Loonie couldn’t find any support as the
The past month has seen a procession of opinion polls proving that Australians reject excessively high immigration levels. Polling by Macquarie University’s Housing and Urban Research Centre showed that two-thirds (66%) of respondents believe that Australia should reduce the rate of immigration to address the housing crisis: Resolve Political Monitor’s polling of 1,800 Aussies from
There is nothing gold likes less than a strong DXY supported by a hawkish central bank. The Market Ear. Watching $3900 Gold putting in another big down candle. $3900 is the line in sand level to watch (50 day comes in slightly lower). A close below that area and things could accelerate further to the
In the world of economics, a recession is often defined as two consecutive quarters of declining economic growth in inflation-adjusted terms. But in the realm of housing supply, the role of inflation is played by demand growth. By this metric, Australia’s housing supply growth has been in a recession in net terms for over four
I reported earlier this week that the number of temporary visa holders in Australia (excluding visitors) hit a record high of 2,547,000 in the September quarter of 2025, up 83,200 on the prior year’s record: The share of Australia’s population on temporary visas has also ballooned to a record high of 9.2%, up from 7.2%
The problem with wind and solar power is that they are weather-dependent and intermittent. Renewables don’t balance supply with demand. They supply too much power when it isn’t needed (e.g., in the middle of the day) and minimal power at other times, including the evening peak. This solar glut can also force energy regulators to