MacroBusiness
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 13:30
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has slashed the official cash rate (OCR) by 2.5%, with another 0.5% of cuts expected by the end of 2026. As Justin Fabo of Antipodean Macro illustrates below, the decline in the OCR has cut the cost of new mortgages, which should have raised housing demand and driven up The post Falling interest rates won’t save New Zealand house prices appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 13:00
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Westpac with the forecast. • Australia’s recovery stalled over the first six months of 2025, with the economy expected to have grown 0.4%qtr in Q2 and just 1.3%yr in six-month annualised terms – way below the RBA’s updated trend estimate of +2.0%yr. • The extent of the pull back in public demand has surprised on The post The recovery that never was fades away appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Renew Economy
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 12:55
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Renew Economy
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 12:54
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Renew Economy
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 12:49
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MacroBusiness
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 12:30
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This is amusing to watch. Australia’s largest east coast exporter, Australia Pacific LNG in which Origin Energy owns a 27.5 per cent stake, is arguing for sweeping reforms that would rewire the domestic market and impose stricter obligations on rival producers to prioritise local buyers. By contrast, Santos — operator of the Gladstone LNG project The post Gas cartel turns cannibal appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 12:00
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Australia is suffering from a chronic housing shortage because, for two decades, population demand via excessive immigration has run ahead of housing supply. The following chart from AMP chief economist Shane Oliver illustrates that after immigration more than doubled and annual population growth surged by 150,000, Australian housing became structurally undersupplied: Oliver estimated that Australia’s |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 11:30
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In the years since the pandemic first arrived on Australia’s shores in early 2020, the government has taken on a greater and greater role as a driver of economic activity. In the past five and a half years, day-to-day government spending as a proportion of GDP has risen by 4.2 percentage points above the pre-Covid The post The hangover comes for the Aussie economy appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 11:00
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This speaks for itself about Labor. Former Labor premiers Daniel Andrews and Bob Carr have accepted invitations to a Chinese military parade where Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un are also guests of honour. Andrews and Carr were included in a list of names released by the Chinese foreign ministry of The post Labor greybeards warmonger with Beijing appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Your Democracy
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 10:33
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Couch potatoes are usually white... white TATTERS*.... They hate the news outlet called BogNews** because it ranks of extreme right wing views which they hate... But the Whitetatters need to feel good about themselves AND BogNews always deliver the ingredients: the Chinese are bad, the Russians are nasty, Israel is good and Labor (Australian Political Party) is presently leading Australia to perdition. America is TOPS...
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MacroBusiness
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 10:30
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The Australia Institute (TAI) used to talk sense on immigration. In 2015, TAI published an excellent research paper calling for a national debate on Australia’s future population: Since the Sydney Olympics in the year 2000 the population of Australia has grown by 25 per cent. In fact, since the Sydney Olympics, Australia’s population has grown The post The Australia Institute gaslights on housing crisis appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 10:00
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Sometimes, markets really are stupid. The last time steel was at these prices, iron ore was $10 lower. Traders are so busy buying iron ore on the basis of anti-involution policies that they have forgotten reality. Reuters. China will push to cut steel production between 2025 and 2026, according to an official document reviewed by The post Iron ore surges as steel collapses appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
xkcd.com
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 10:00
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MacroBusiness
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 09:30
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Victoria disease is the malady of endless Labor government leading to a mass immigration led economic model that destroys living standards via private sector crowding out, onerous public debt, industrial hollowing out and capital shallowing. Rinse and repeat. It is a national affliction but Victoria is it’s progenitor and the case most metastasised. What you The post Victoria disease infects mainstream appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 09:00
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Friday night saw a selloff dominate on risk markets as the end of week and month double twitching and fund flows amid the steepening yield curve on US Treasuries, now at a three year high. Wall Street pulled back the sharpest with European shares still in hesitation mode. The USD was broadly unchanged but finishes The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 08:00
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Australians have been trapped in a long, drawn-out per capita recession. As the following chart illustrates, Australia’s per capita GDP has recorded nine declines in the past 11 quarters. While the cumulative 1.7% decline in real per capita GDP is rather shallow compared to the early-1980s and 1990s recessions, it is the longest-running slump in The post Australians remain trapped in the ‘recession zone’ appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Your Democracy
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 07:46
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An investigation by CNN into Israel’s strike on the Nasser Hospital this week – an attack that killed more than 20 people, including emergency workers and five journalists – is a case study in how even well-intentioned journalism, ostensibly examining Israeli crimes, ends up concealing more than it reveals. |
John Quiggin
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 07:36
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Looking at the facts, there’s no reasonable conclusion except that US democracy is done for. But rather than face facts, I’m turning to fiction. So, here’s a story about the collapse of Trumpism, crony capitalism and the AI/crypto bubble. Fiction is a relatively unfamilar mode of writing for me, so critique (on style and structure rather than plausibility) is most welcome. The crash of 2026 |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 06:31
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Yet another major bank is on board. Credit Agricole. After years of resistance, the RBA has lowered its productivity growth assumption. This has not led to higher inflation forecasts or the risk of tighter monetary policy. The RBA is assuming lower productivity growth will not only weaken supply but also demand via lower income growth. The post Everybody wants Australian dollars appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Your Democracy
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 05:55
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has escalated her anti-Russia rhetoric, calling President Vladimir Putin a “predator”and reciting NATO’s talking point about a looming Russian threat to justify the EU’s push for accelerated militarization. |
John Quiggin
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 05:48
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Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 1, 2025 - 00:05
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According to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), Australian rental affordability was at a record low at the end of 2024, with the median household required to spend 33% of their income to rent the median home. Cotality’s latest Quarterly Rental Review, released in July, showed that rents nationally have surged by 43% over the past five years: The post Australia’s rental market “extremely tight” appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Sunday, August 31, 2025 - 14:44
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By Lucinda Jerogin, Associate Economist at CBA Australian headline inflation surprised to the upside, sharply rising by 2.8%/yr in July. However, electricity and travel prices contributed to the majority of the forecast miss and will likely unwind in coming months. The Minutes of the August Monetary Policy Board meeting highlighted a shift in focus for The post The economic week ahead appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Your Democracy
Sunday, August 31, 2025 - 14:19
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Donald Trump demonstrates deep understanding of George Soros' nefarious role in supporting “engineered chaos,” both inside the US and abroad, retired Colonel Hatem Saber, an Egyptian expert in international counterterrorism and information warfare, tells Sputnik. "Democrats use Soros and his organizations as tools for regime change," Saber says. Saber highlighted the evolution of Soros’ role by decades: |
Renew Economy
Sunday, August 31, 2025 - 13:59
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Renew Economy
Sunday, August 31, 2025 - 13:53
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Renew Economy
Sunday, August 31, 2025 - 13:49
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THE BLOT REPORT
Sunday, August 31, 2025 - 11:44
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I wrote a piece about the religious bastardry afoot in the US about 18 months ago which argued the Christian nationalism was a misnomer, and that christofascism was a much more accurate term1. Looking into the history of democracy superficially made me wonder why most democratic nations became democratic when the church was politically much more powerful and had a great deal of influence over the lives of most of the populace, while now many of the churches in the US are antidemocratic in that they have been cheerleaders for Trump, who is rapidly dismantling US democracy. What has changed? |
MacroBusiness
Sunday, August 31, 2025 - 10:04
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Australia’s auction market has gathered strength over recent months. Last week’s national final auction clearance rate of 70.0% was the strongest result since the week ending 11th February 2024 (70.3%). This weekend’s preliminary auction clearance results showed further strength, with Cotality reporting a national preliminary clearance rate of 76.3%, a full percentage point higher than |
Sunshine state enjoys highest ever rooftop solar output – and record levels of renewable curtailment |