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Dodgy Scanlon Foundation survey underplays immigration backlash

December 4, 2018 - 10:15 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen While almost all recent opinion polls show the majority of Australians want immigration to be lowered, including: Australian Population Research Institute: 54% want lower immigration; Newspoll: 56% want lower immigration; Essential: 54% believe Australia’s population is growing too fast and 64% believe immigration is too high; Lowy: 54% of people think

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Bravo! Weatherill slays troglodyte Turnbull

December 4, 2018 - 10:00 -- Admin

Great stuff today from Australia’s best contemporary political leader, Jay Weatherill: Jay Weatherill has accused Malcolm Turnbull of intervening to “politicise a state emergency” after South Australia’s devastating statewide blackout in 2016, saying this ultimately led to his demise as prime minister because he was needlessly wedged “between the Labor states and his right-wing partyroom”

The post Bravo! Weatherill slays troglodyte Turnbull appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The economic impact of falling oil

December 4, 2018 - 09:45 -- Admin

Via Capital Economics: The sharp fall in oil prices over the past month or so has led to several questions about the implications for the global economy. We’ve written lots on this subject, including how central banks might respond and why the major oil producers are now better positioned to weather a fall in prices than they were a

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The bond bull market is back, baby!

December 4, 2018 - 09:30 -- Admin

As noted, last night saw some dramatic action in bond markets. Both the US and Australia were heavily bid: The US curve inverted at the short end for the first time since 2007: By contrast the Aussie curve remains bizarrely steep, held aloft by RBA stupidity: Here are the two compared with the US clearly

The post The bond bull market is back, baby! appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Daily iron ore price update (meh)

December 4, 2018 - 09:15 -- Admin

Iron ore prices for December 3, 2018: Spot up. Paper up. Steel up. But all well off their highs. Nothing too exciting here. I don’t expect prices to do too much over the next few months. Look to February for the next big move.

The post Daily iron ore price update (meh) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Australia dollar catapults as US recession risks rise

December 4, 2018 - 09:00 -- Admin

DXY was firm last night: Australian dollar broke out everywhere: EMs were stronger: Gold was strong: Oil too: And base metals: Miners went sick: And EM stocks: Junk was soft: Treasuries were bid bigly and curve inverted at the short end: Bunds were strong too: Stocks jumped but moderately only: Westpac has the wrap: Market

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Macro Morning

December 4, 2018 - 08:30 -- Admin

By Chris Becker The positive outcome from the weekend G20 summit continued overnight after making stocks and risk currencies gap on Monday morning. US Treasury yields fell below 3%, with interest rate futures still indicating an 80% chance of another Fed hike in December, with added confirmation as the latest ISM manufacturing print surprising to the

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Deutsche: Australian property to crash like Ireland

December 4, 2018 - 06:59 -- Admin

Via Deutsche’s new banking analyst Matthew Wilson: At best, mortgage growth will continue to slow as deleveraging works its way through the economy constraining house prices and discretionary spend, but it’s unlikely to be beautiful. At worst, we confront the Irish-like scenario. However, we think it’s unlikely to reach the Irish heights of 25 per

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Labor on track to destroy Scummo

December 4, 2018 - 06:46 -- Admin

Via The Guardian: The latest Guardian Essential poll shows Labor’s two-party-preferred lead over the government has blown out again to 54% to 46%. A fortnight ago Labor was ahead 52% to 48%, which suggested a tightening in the contest. In the latest survey of 1,032 respondents, which follows a thumping electoral loss for the Liberals

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CoreLogic: Unsold properties stockpile in Sydney/Melbourne

December 4, 2018 - 00:15 -- Admin

CoreLogic’s weekly housing indicators continue to show broad weakness. Dwelling values have fallen heavily, led by Sydney and Melbourne: Auction clearances have crashed, again led by Sydney and Melbourne: Whereas mortgage credit is stillborn: At the same time, listings are exploding upwards to 2012 highs as unsold ‘stale’ stock accumulates across Sydney and Melbourne: The

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