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Articles from MacroBusiness

Stocks in the Roaring Twenties

November 12, 2024 - 12:30 -- Admin

The Market Ear on Yardeni’s Roaring Twenties Animal Spirits Roaring 2020s, Animal spirits, Trump 2.0 and world peace….How bullish can you get? Here is Yardeni’s new take on the current backdrop. “We are raising our S&P 500 year-end targets as follows: 6100 (2024), 7000 (2025), and 8000 (2026). We are now targeting 10,000 by the

Bitcoin “undeniable bull market” eminently deniable

November 12, 2024 - 12:24 -- Admin

Yawn. Bitcoin continued its relentless surge higher, climbing above $88,000 for the first time, boosted by President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of digital assets and the prospect of a Congress featuring pro-crypto lawmakers. Trump’s decisive victory in the presidential election has prompted celebratory chest-thumping from the digital-asset industry, which spent over $100 million backing a range of crypto-friendly

OPEC is going out of business

November 12, 2024 - 12:00 -- Admin

Thankfully, peak oil demand is almost here as China decreases the energy-intensity of GDP, and OPEC has way too much product. At $70, oil supply is gushing while demand withers. It’s all coming from non-OPEC. OPEC spare capacity is huge and deficits are increasingly too: If Trump delivers Ukraine peace and Russian barrels re-emerge, the

Victoria is as broken as its crumbling roads

November 12, 2024 - 11:30 -- Admin

In April, former Treasury economist Stephen Anthony summed up the Victorian government’s management of the state as follows: “Victoria is on a suicide mission to record borrowing, just as global interest rates are about to hit 5%”. “Potholes can’t get filled, emergency departments can’t afford clean linen, primary schools can’t fix heaters”. “Things are about

Consumer fear eases

November 12, 2024 - 11:05 -- Admin

Westpac with the note. Westpac Consumer Sentiment up 5.3% to 94.6. Consumers now optimistic about outlook for economy and finances. Responses over the week show a pull-back after the US election. Job loss fears drop to a 19-month low. Consumers’ Christmas spending plans more ‘average’ than ‘austere’. Jobs, falling inflation, and rate cuts coming when

Could the US election result derail a Big Australia?

November 12, 2024 - 11:00 -- Admin

By Stephen Saunders Here we go again. The ABC claims Australia “doesn’t have” a population plan. But we do – it’s massive. Can Donald Trump’s victory change that at all? Forever, influential pro-migration stakeholders have wrung their hands in mock distress. By golly, if only we had a “population plan”. We should have an “immigration

Housing crisis: YIMBYs versus NIMBYs is a distraction

November 12, 2024 - 10:30 -- Admin

ABC Radio Nation aired a segment on the “battle between millennials and boomers”. The segment couched Australia’s housing crisis as a conflict between the ‘Yes in my backyard’ (YIMBY) movement, who want greater density in established suburbs and the inner-city, against the ‘Not in my backyard’ (NIMBY) movement, which objects to forced densification. We have seen

Chinese credit into the pit

November 12, 2024 - 10:00 -- Admin

Chinese credit is still buggered. Total social financing in October was soft at CNY1.36tr. The growth in the stock of credit continues to shrink, down to a record low 7.8%. Under the bonnet, household credit grew  a bit at CNY160bn but it was mostly short-term debt not mortgages. Not much joy for property stabilisation. Most

Iron and steel bust resumes

November 12, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

Steel futures have not updated. Dalian is breaking down: The blows are coming from all directions: “Not only has China’s recent stimulus package fallen short of investor expectations, but the weekend’s fresh disappointments from the inflation report and FDI data have also reinforced the view that China is still far from stabilizing its beleaguered economy,”

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