The ferrous market is bifurcating as traders wonder about the steel ouput cut. CISA steel output is falling anyway. My view is we are likely to follow the 2023 pattern in H2 as official cuts, steel export falls, and tariffs take their toll. UBS has joined the bears. As the market moves from balance to
DXY is trying to push higher. AUD is a bit stalled. Lead boots too. And gold. I don’t know what oil is doing. Perhaps chasing copper as Trump slams the market with a 50% tariff. Nothing can save the big miners. EM rolled. Junk false breakout. As Trump tarifflation is back. Stocks no likee. Yields
After years of failure, the RBA has given up entirely on forecasting and is driving through the rearview mirror. Goldman. In her post-meeting press conference Governor Bullock stressed that the decision to pause the easing cycle was “about timing rather than direction” with the RBA just “looking for further confirmation we are on the forecast
Overnight saw Wall Street was uneasy with a lack of confidence and direction as trade “negotiations” continued via threats from the Oval Office, including an early morning barb against Australian exports which will likely see pharmaceutical stocks here locally suffer on the open. Remember to keep all eyes on the US Treasury market with 10
The big surprise in the newsflow is not the Epstein list no longer exists its that the RBA actually held interest rates steady in today’s meeting, launching the Australian dollar higher. The RBA is highlighting the uncertainty of the Trump regime’s tariff tirade as one reason but also domestic concerns play a big point. The
Jesus, what a pack of nupties. Maintaining price stability and full employment is the priority. The Board continues to judge that the risks to inflation have become more balanced and the labour market remains strong. Nevertheless it remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and supply.
Morgan Stanley with the note. The headlines have already started to trickle in: Canada repeals digital services tax, Vietnam agreement secured, EU on track. These seem like the previews before the movie starts – but what are we actually watching? Many of our conversations with clients point to July 8/9 as a catalyst for risk.
When it comes to economic statistics, few are as hotly contested as government employment data. Issues such as survey response rates, one hour of work per week counting as being employed and the likelihood of significant later revisions are often cited as potential distortions to the “true” picture of the nation’s labour market. For this
In recent years, the hard reality of the economic, social and fiscal situation of Britain have gradually come to the forefront. Some examples have been surprisingly humorous, such as the livestream of a lettuce that ended up outliving the government of Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss. Others have been cold and concrete, such as the
In the debate surrounding the future of Australia’s economy and what it will look like, the issue of the resources sector is often one of the most hotly debated elements. At first glance, it’s easy to think that the economy can do without it, that we are little different from any number of other advanced