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Macro Afternoon

June 28, 2019 - 17:00 -- Admin

Despite the positive lead from Wall Street, Asian markets are very cautious going into the G20 summit this weekend in Osaka, with traders awaiting the foot in mouth US President to probably foul up the talks. The USD has barely moved, while the Aussie has briefly peeped over the 70 cent level as local stock

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Bill Evans: RBA to cut cash rate next week

June 28, 2019 - 15:56 -- Admin

Via Bill Evans at Westpac: The RBA Board meets next week on July 2. Westpac expects the cash rate to be cut by 25bps to 1.00%. Beyond July we continue to expect a further 25bp cut with November the most likely window for a final move taking the rate to 0.75%. As noted previously, we

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Secret planning underway for US naval base in Darwin

June 28, 2019 - 14:44 -- Admin

Somehow I missed this during the week, at the ABC: Secret planning has begun for a new port facility just outside Darwin which could eventually help US Marines operate more readily in the Indo-Pacific. Precise details remain tightly guarded but senior defence and federal government figures concede the proposal may risk angering China even though

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Frydenberg gets surplus, economy gets recesssion

June 28, 2019 - 14:06 -- Admin

At the AFR it is all beer and skittles for Josh Frydenberg: Department of Finance monthly budget figures show the underlying cash deficit for the 11 months to May 31 in the current financial year had narrowed to $115 million down from $4.9 billion in April and $2.25 billion lower than the 2018-19 revised budget

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Joye: New house price party just getting started

June 28, 2019 - 13:00 -- Admin

From Mr Joye: The bottom line is that with more cuts coming, and APRA yet to reduce its 7 per cent serviceability test, the housing party is just getting started. …It is, as a result, plausible that the RBA gets less than two-thirds of the lending rate reductions it would normally expect from a brace of

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How to comfort a banking psycho

June 28, 2019 - 12:30 -- Admin

Recently we saw this, via the AFR: The psychologist inserted by the corporate regulator into boardroom discussions of more than 20 blue-chip companies including Qantas, Woolworths and AMP warns that Australia’s financial sector culture is broken. Elizabeth Arzadon, the regulator’s psychologist of choice, also warns that resistance by boards to public criticism is a mark of

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The Bitcoin crash is rational

June 28, 2019 - 12:15 -- Admin

Via Bloomberg: Bitcoin’s rise was meteoric this week — and its decline has been just as swift. It’s easy come, easy go in the crypto world, where a frenzy over Bitcoin pushed its price to nearly $14,000 on Wednesday, its highest level since January 2018. The largest digital asset then reversed course in a matter

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Big specufestor banks rev up mortgages

June 28, 2019 - 12:00 -- Admin

APRA is out with monthly banking statistics for May. Here is the raw data for investment loans: ANZ CBA MQG NAB WBC BOQ BEN SUN May-19 77473 133400 12532 104681 153096 11320 12932 11694 Apr-19 78018 133093 12465 105036 152588 11332 12851 11697 Mar-19 78470 132904 12372 105379 152393 11333 12772 11724 Feb-19 78936 132916

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Mortgage credit growth falls to all-time low

June 28, 2019 - 11:52 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its private sector credit aggregates data for the month of May 2019: A chart showing the long-run breakdown in the components is provided below: Personal credit growth (-0.6% MoM; -1.1% QoQ; -3.2% YoY) has plunged, whereas business credit growth (0.1% MoM; 0.6% QoQ;

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