Goldman wraps a Q1 dud. Nominal retail sales rose 0.3%mom in March, broadly in line with expectations (GSe: +0.2%mom, BBG: 0.4%mom). That said, the details were softer, with ex-food sales broadly flat for a second consecutive month. The quarterly data were also weaker than expected, with volumes flat in 1Q2025 against expectations for an ongoing
Australian households are suffering their longest recession in generations. The Q4 national accounts, released in March, revealed that real per capita household consumption fell for an eighth consecutive quarter. A steep decline in household incomes is behind the fall in consumption. As illustrated below, real per capita household consumption had declined by around 8% from its
Many were hoping for a minority government moderated by the Senate. It made perfect sense. Two mainstream sides of politics have served up the same gruel for 15 years. The gruel is nasty, and the punters don’t like it. Small changes moderated by a batch of independents are a least-worst option. For a nation that
There are hints of the trade shock landing on China but they are so far minor. American freight route costs have pancaked. But freight volumes are still fine. Perhaps as dumping elsewhere begins. Ahead is a problem. With some offset already accelerating on the ground. It’s not going to be a banner year for China.
DXY is making hard work of it. AUD is ripping your face off now. Lead boots will be lead boots. Oil is about to crater. I will buy a deeper gold pullback. Metals have no interest in growth. Miners yuck. EM gapped into madness. Junmk says no bueno. Treasuries are confused. Stocks are on fire
The federal election has delivered a stomping Labor victory with the party winning 85 seats and a comfortable majority, with 19 seats still in doubt. The Coalition was routed, scoring one of its lowest primary votes on record. Leader Peter Dutton lost his seat (good riddance), alongside senior figures like Michael Sukkar. Shadow immigration minister
Australians are about to be jilted. There is a very widespread disenchantment and disillusionment with politics, the media, any given person being reported on or even doing the reporting, and a pervasive sense of ‘this country is increasingly stuffed’ on the streets. The issues at the core of that are issues which both mainstream sides
International Reading: McDonald’s suffers worst U.S. sales decline since 2020, warns of ‘anti-American sentiment’ abroad – NBC McDonald’s Store Traffic Falls Unexpectedly As Diners Grow Uneasy About Economy – Huff Post Tim Cook says Trump tariffs could cost Apple more than $900M in June quarter – The Hill Trump’s tariffs: ‘It feels like Covid 2.0.
Risk markets are having a solid finish to the trading week while recent news that the Chinese may actually be open to talking about tariffs with the US, plus the Canadian auto industry seemingly getting another exemption on parts, with futures indicating an even better start in Europe. All eyes will be on the latest
I recently attended a forum on Climate and Economics in my local area with some very interesting topics discussed, ranging from the LNP’s nuclear power ideas to the dangers of not meeting Net Zero by 2050 and, of course, the upcoming Federal Election. Here are some snippets from the forum. The full transcript and audio