The likelihood of a near-term rate cut has been shattered with Wednesday’s Q3 CPI release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation spiked by 1.0% in Q3, well above the median economists’ forecast of a 0.8% rise. This took the annual trimmed mean CPI to 3.0% – the very top
TS Lombard gives us the company view of the new Five Year Plan. First, consensus expectations for 2026 GDP are too bearish. Xi Jinping has recommitted the CCP to doubling 2020 per capita GDP by 2035 (just as we forecasted!) This entails a growth rate of ~4.6% yoy to reach that goal. While we do
Here it is comes! Waymo is talking to local regulators about trialling the company’s self-driving taxis in Australia, as the autonomous vehicle company begins lobbying governments around the country. Owned by Google’s parent company Alphabet, Waymo describes itself as the “world’s first autonomous ride-hailing service” and says its vehicles have completed 10 million driverless rides
The IEA has done an analysis of the immense looming global gas glut. It is even bigger than I thought. Following the supply shock of 2022/23, natural gas markets moved towards a gradual rebalancing in 2024 and 2025. During this period, supply fundamentals remained tight and prices stayed well above their historic levels. This limited
Australia is the world’s leader in creating products and policies that load households with debt. This year, we have seen the federal Labor government introduce its 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers as well as exclude student debts from loan servicing calculations. We have also seen Australian lenders announce new stimulatory mortgage products, including 40-year
It’s a new paradigm for stocks! The Market Ear. Retail buying still relentless 1.October, September, and August 2025 mark the biggest monthly retail buy imbalances since 2019, with September hitting a record ~$3bn in a single day. 2. Since the S&P 500’s April 8th low, retail traders have poured in roughly $292bn, more than any
Wall Street rallied again overnight on the continued potential US-China trade deal as risk markets pivot towards the expected rate cut from the Federal Reserve this week. The USD pulled back against some of the majors, particularly against the burgeoning Canadian Loonie as PM Mark Carney continues his Operation “Reach Around” while Euro range traded
DXY faded a little. AUD roared on the spot. CNY faded. Gold is going lower. Oil can’t even squeeze the shorts. AI metals are the new gold. RIO is the chosen one. EM to the moon. Junk needs to stay green. Yields are melting except in Australia, where the RBA has dislocated the bond market.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released its annual national accounts for the 2024-25 financial year, which includes extensive data on land values. Land values underpinning the Australian housing market increased by 7.0% during the 2024-25 financial year. In 2024-25, Australia’s land was valued at $9.8 trillion, with residential land accounting for 85% ($8.3
A few wobbles across Asian share markets with the catalyst of another potential rare earth trade deal between the Trump regime and Japan helped Yen strengthen against USD. The fallout from Friday’s not so firm US CPI print is keeping the USD down against most of the majors as expectation of a cut from the