Heading into the release of the official Q2 population and immigration data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), all indicators were pointing to an increase. A record 448,500 net permanent and long-term (NPLT) arrivals were recorded for the first 10 months of 2025: The ABS monthly NPLT arrivals series has historically tracked the official
I’ve been seeing a particular type of chart circulate more frequently: the one plotting the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio against the market’s subsequent 10-year returns. At first glance, it looks authoritative — hundreds of data points neatly arranged, a strong downward relationship, and a clear takeaway that today’s high forward P/Es imply a lost
As battles over trade flows and domestic industry intensify worldwide, it’s worth stepping back and reflecting on how this set of circumstances has come to pass. According to an analysis from the Wall Street Journal, the total inflation-adjusted volume of Chinese exports has risen by 44% since 2019. Meanwhile, China’s imports have risen by only
Cotality Pain and Gain Report for the September quarter has been released, which showed that 95.5% of resales made a gross profit, the highest in two decades: The median resale gain hit a record $335,000, up from $315,000 in the previous quarter and $296,000 a year ago. Even adjusted for current values, this is the
In February, the Coalition and its leader, Peter Dutton, were riding high in the polls as the unofficial election campaign began to unfold. For the first time in the 2022–2025 parliamentary term, the Coalition had a decent lead in the polls, up 52% to 48% in aggregate. Meanwhile, bookies had the Coalition as the odds
Canada experienced one of the world’s biggest immigration surges post-pandemic, which created the worst rental crisis in the nation’s history. Amid a growing voter backlash, the Canadian government has introduced a series of measures since late 2024 to lower immigration levels, focusing on both permanent and temporary residents. These include reducing annual permanent resident targets,
Wall Street was almost unphased overnight by the dual NFP release as US unemployment jumped to a four year high, triggering a rally in US bonds, while the latest UK unemployment figures weren’t rosy either with speculation the BOE may move to easing its rates this week. The USD remains under duress against most of
The 2025-26 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (MYEFO) was released on Wednesday. The key economic forecasts are shown below. Headline Findings Deficit improvement: 2025/26 underlying cash deficit revised to $36.8bn (–1.3% of GDP), better than March’s forecast of $42.1bn (–1.5%). Still a sharp deterioration from the $10bn deficit in 2024/25 and surpluses in prior years.
From the Market Ear: Shorts “While short interest in aggregate is somewhat low, that for the average (median) stock remains very high.” (DB) The shorty gap “The median short interest (inverted in chart below) is aligned with very low earnings growth, even as median company earnings growth rose into the double digits in Q3.” Cash
The bond market has turned uber-hawkish following Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Michele Bullock’s guidance on interest rates, where she ruled out further rate cuts and warned that rates may need to go higher to tame stubbornly high inflation. “I don’t think there are interest rate cuts in the horizon for the foreseeable future”,