Macro Afternoon: 12 September 2025
AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225
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Australia’s house price upswing gathers steam
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate cuts alongside the imminent introduction of the Albanese government’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers have triggered a sharp uptick in Australian home prices. Cotality’s daily dwelling values index has reported the strongest 28-day growth since March 2024, with values across the five major capital cities
Energy price shock lands on households
CBA released its monthly Household Spending Insights (HSI), which rose by 0.3% in August and follows a 0.7% lift in July and a 0.5% increase in May and June. The following chart from Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro plots the uptrend in the HSI over recent months and confirms the stronger household consumption reported in
Australia: a global leader of energy idiocy
The federal government is widely tipped to announce its 2035 emissions reduction target next week, ahead of the upcoming United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York. The Labor Environment Action Network’s new co-convener Louise Crawford says the 2035 target will provide an opportunity for Australia to demonstrate “global leadership” on the world stage. Crawford
Fed up Kiwis flee to Australia
Statistics New Zealand this week released migration data, which showed that only 13,066 net overseas migrants landed in New Zealand in the year to July. This was well below the decade average of 49,000 and more than 120,000 lower than the late 2023 peak. The decline in net overseas migration has been driven by the
Building housing in Australia is too expensive
I have consistently cautioned that the state and federal governments’ plans to blanket our cities with high-rise apartments will not improve housing affordability. The reason is simple: it is too expensive to construct apartments. As a result, they cannot be delivered at a reasonable cost to buyers. Urbis highlighted the excessive cost of apartment development,
Deportation backlog further stresses Aussie housing
When Australia’s international borders reopened in early 2022, the nation was already well in the midst of a rental crisis. As a result of the pandemic, demand for rentals surged significantly, first in regional areas as people sought to make their exodus from lockdown-impacted cities and then in the capitals as individuals stuck at home
Markets are all bull and no sentiment
From the Market Ear AAII bull – bear spread vs. SPX. All this bull… and we are still in neutral land. Chugging along Russell continues trading inside the perfect trend channel. We are printing new recent highs, and buying that 21 day moving average continues to be a simple but profitable strategy. Overboughter GDX has
Migration leading indicator surges higher
In February, on ABC’s Q&A, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stated that the government was cutting immigration and relieving pressure on the housing market by reducing international student numbers. Albanese noted that the student visa system was being “abused”. This week, we learned that international student enrolments hit a record high of 839,200 in the year to
Australia’s housing bubble swallows economy
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) this week released data on Australia’s residential housing stock, which was valued at a record $11.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, equivalent to $1,017,000 per dwelling. The following chart compares the value of Australia’s dwelling stock to the country’s GDP. It shows that the entire residential housing