Every cycle has a bellwether. Today it’s NVIDIA. We’re operating in a two-speed economy where the US consumer looks fatigued, while corporate AI spending is a rocket ship. Let me share how I’m thinking about NVIDIA: why the recent result mattered, why capex is the fulcrum, what the depreciation debate gets right and wrong, how
With the Victorian government drowning in debt and facing further credit rating downgrades, the Labor state government is seeking to rein in costs. Recent infrastructure projects in Victoria have faced major cost blowouts, including the VNI West transmission line (doubling to $7.6–11.4 billion), the Suburban Rail Loop (announced to cost $50 billion, now more than
How did a fundamental reform so critical to the national interest shift from the lunatic centre to the sensible fringe? Australia’s failed East Coast gas market is critical to the entire economy. Unless it is fixed, Australia will have permanent stagflation, industrial hollowing out, and a failing energy transition. The subject is hardly a fringe
A big surge in tech stocks led Wall Street higher with more Fedspeak that the December rate cut is firming, giving a general boost to risk markets. The USD was mixed against most of the majors with Euro falling back slightly alongside Yen while Pound Sterling firmed. Bond markets rallied alongside the chance of the
Just joking. I refuse to invest in the diarrhea of financial markets. That said, if you do, now may be the time. The old magazine cover indicator is chirping. As Michael Hartnett stated over the weekend, now may indeed be the right time to buy. Crypto “will be first to sniff out Fed coming to rescue.”
Cotality has released alarming data illustrating the sharp deterioration of rental affordability over recent years following record net overseas migration. The following chart plots the percentage of median household income spent on renting the median dwelling at the national level: Rental affordability nationally was tracking at its most favourable level in 15 years in Q4
Asian equity markets are fairly buoyant today but Japanese markets are closed while the risk complex ponders the next stage of the Ruzzian/Ukrainian peace “talks” amid a shortened trading week due to US Thanksgiving. Currency land was fairly stable without any large gaps as traders digest the Fed talk from Friday night that may support
The latest batch of lending data from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that investor mortgage lending has surged to decade highs. Recently, Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro posted the following chart showing that Google searches for “investment property” had surged to their highest level in at least two decades:
The iron jaws refuse to shut. Despite the collapse of steel mill margins. They have tried to lower prices. MySteel. Imported iron ore inventories at Chinese steel mills fell to a two-month low of 12.4 million tonnes this week, down 2.9% from the prior week, as high prices dampened restocking interest. Inventory Coverage now stands at 20
The Australian Treasury’s propaganda modelling, released ahead of the introduction of the Albanese government’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers, forecast that the policy would only lift home values by a cumulative 0.6% over a six-year period. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Housing Minister Clare O’Neil used Treasury’s modelling to deflect allegations that the policy