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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 08:42 Source

By Chris Becker  Another week passes as volatility rises due to the turmoil that is characterising the Trump White House, cascading into deadlocking a Congress that is supposed to be focusing on tax cuts and infrastructure spending which risk markets have already priced in. That upside risk is now reverting as smart money goes to

The post Macro Morning (Trading Week) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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John Quiggin Monday, May 22, 2017 - 08:23 Source

A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, idees fixes and so on.

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John Quiggin Monday, May 22, 2017 - 08:22 Source

Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 05:05 Source

From JCP Investment Partners , one of three equity managers that invests for the Future Fund: In a proprietary study of the nation’s record high-and-growing household debt mountain, the Melbourne-based fund said Irish-style housing losses for the bigger-than-recognised pool of riskier borrowers could wipe out half of the banks’ equity capital. Interest-only loans, said JCP

The post Future Fundie warns Aussie bubble as disastrous as Ireland, US appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Poll Bludger Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:19 Source

With two-and-a-half weeks to go, I’m going to start posting poll aggregates ahead of the June 8 British general election with a regularity yet to be determined. There’s no clever business going on here in terms of weighting and bias adjustment – the results are simply what SAS/STAT’s LOESS function spits out when I plug in all the polling since the 2015 election as harvested from UK Polling Report, using the optimal smoothing parameters it determines through means beyond my pay grade.

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North Coast Voices Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:18 Source

In 2014 the Abbott Government ceased the thirty year-old federal government practice of releasing a Women's Budget Statement.The National Foundation for Australian Women stepped in to fill the gap since then and this month has released its 97-page review of the Turnbull Government’s 2017-18 Budget, Gender lens on the Budget.This budget review contains little that is unequivocally positive for women and summarises the bad news thus:Women are overrepresented at lower income levels.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:17 Source

A few short months ago the Coalition was in league with the major banks as they built-out a perverse rent-seeking fake government to dodge a royal commission. In lock step, Do-nothing Malcolm was spawning phony banking inquiries faster than breeding rabbits. The alliance appeared unshakable even as it cost both government and banks. That is

The post Do-Brexit Malcolm is surely next appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:16 Source

Ah, the perils of allowing the public to get loose, via the AFR: When Qantas announced it was running a competition through which members of the public will name the airline’s eight new Dreamliners, it was only ever courting trouble. With more than 8000 entries already in, is it any wonder that the leading suggestion

The post What should we name the new Qantas Dreamliner? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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North Coast Voices Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:16 Source

In its 2017-18 Budget the Turnbull Government announced it would commence the phased re-introduction of Medicare Benefits Schedule rebates indexation.Treasurer and Liberal MP for Cook Scott Morrison stated in his Budget Night speech that “We are lifting the freeze on the indexation of the Medicare Benefits Schedule.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:15 Source

From Bill Evans today: The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 1.1% to 98.0 in May from 99.0 in April. The survey was conducted over the period May 8 to 13. Hence two of the survey days were ‘pre Budget’ and four were ‘post Budget’. However there was virtually no impact from

The post Bill Evans: Brace for a house price correction appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:15 Source

By Leith van Onselen The AFR reported over the weekend that one of the reasons why the Turnbull Government chose to only allow property investors to claim depreciation expenses on plant and equipment to actual outlays incurred was because it was being rorted: The Tax Office is showing no sympathy for property investors complaining about

The post ATO: negative gearing depreciation has been rorted appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:15 Source

DXY was pounded again Friday night, euro broke out: Commodity currencies were firm: Gold too: Brent took off on highly speculative hopes that OPEC will make deeper cuts, even as the US rig count keeps rising: Base metals loved it: Big miners too: And EM stocks: High yield not so much: US bonds were sold:

The post Trump doubts versus Fed doubts fire stocks appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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North Coast Voices Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:15 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:14 Source

Via The Guardian: Nick Xenophon says his Senate bloc will support the Turnbull government’s contentious $6bn bank levy if it is also applied to foreign-owed companies, not just the big five Australian banks. The leader of the Nick Xenophon Team told the ABC on Sunday that applying the tax to foreign banks was now a

The post Why the bank levy should be doubled appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:14 Source

Via Banking Day: A drastic pair of corrections from past disclosures – from NAB, mainly, and also Westpac – features in an update from ASIC on Friday on the state of play (and the compensation costs) from “fees for no advice” in the industry. AMP, ANZ, Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac “have so

The post Big bank rort exposures explode 900% appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:14 Source

By Leith van Onselen The Australian went into full whinge mode over the weekend attacking the 0.06% levy on the big 5 banks’ liabilities, which are projected to raise $6.2 billion over the Budget forward estimates. First up, here’s Henry Ergas, who howled ‘inefficiency’: In essence, these levies are a tax on an input used

The post Murdoch Press fails on bank levy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:10 Source

28 days after the last rate hike comes golly: Westpac Banking Corp is set to increase rates on new fixed, investor interest-only loans, sources told Street Talk. This column understands higher fixed-rates will be announced for new investor interest-only loans in coming days. The changes do not include variable rate mortgages. A Westpac spokesman on Sunday said the bank did

The post 28 days later: Westpac to hike on interest-only again appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:10 Source

CoreLogic released its auction report yesterday, which revealed another weekend of strong auction conditions, with the national auction clearance rate rising to 77.2% from 76.2% last weekend, well above the 68.9% recorded in the same weekend last year: Auction volumes nationally also surged to 2,794, well above the 1,920 recorded in the same weekend last

The post Auction clearances rise on strong volumes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:06 Source

Via Gotti today: Energy anger is Australia is rising rapidly. The business community’s dismay over the disastrous energy situation boiled over at the Australian Leadership Retreat on the Gold Coast at the weekend. But so did the deep anger from the Indian delegates who pulled no punches when explaining that India saw what was happening

The post Adani loses it appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:06 Source

The takes today that run from the ridiculous to the sublime around buying miners. Ridiculous is Credit Suisse: April stats of record production really point to record iron ore consumption China’s reported steel production and apparent consumption for April hit record levels. However, as we discussed in our Iron Ore Forecast note of 17 May,

The post The sublime to the ridiculous or should you buy miners? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:05 Source

Iron ore price charts for May 19, 2017: Tianjin benchmark added 70 cents to $61.70 under-performing very over-excited paper. Steel is still amazingly strong and probably needs to roll before iron ore does. Port stocks of iron ore are now rising off the hook, up another 1.75mt last week to a new laugh out loud

The post Daily iron ore price update (lol) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:03 Source

Via Investing in Chinese Stocks. It seems like there are no transactions in Beijing’s housing market, and developers keep quiet out of fear reads the headline. Developers are used to playing on the edge of government restrictions, but the restrictions on converted apartments and credit tightening have shoved them over it via iFeng: 冰封的北京商住:新政后几乎零成交 开发商噤若寒蝉

The post Beijing property freezes with shadow banking appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, May 22, 2017 - 00:01 Source

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: TPP countries agree to explore options for trade deal without U.S. – Reuters Mainstreaming behavioural economics – VOX Did Trump Just Break The Stock Market? – Medium How the Wealthy Talk to Their Children About Money – NY Times Bitcoin just surged past $2,000 for the first time – Tech Crunch The end of

The post Links 22 May 2017 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Club Troppo Sunday, May 21, 2017 - 22:04 Source

The Rise of Mob Rule in AmericaBelow is a spirited exchange between me and Barry Jones on deliberative democracy which I reproduce with his permission. He won’t be participating in any online debate because as he puts it

I … confess to being a total abstainer where social media is concerned. I don’t want to get involved in something which is potentially time consuming and/or obsessive. I have time for Bach, or social media. I choose Bach.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Sunday, May 21, 2017 - 21:00 Source

“I put lipstick on a pig,” he said. “I feel a deep sense of remorse that I contributed to presenting Trump in a way that brought him wider attention and made him more appealing than he is.” He went on, “I genuinely believe that if Trump wins and gets the nuclear codes there is an…

The post A sticky end for Mar a Lago Hillbillies as Washington dumps Trump? appeared first on The AIM Network.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Sunday, May 21, 2017 - 17:53 Source

In a recent television interview government MP George Christensen claimed to be a lifelong Doctor Who fan. According to George his earliest memory of Doctor Who is watching ‘The Brain of Morbius’ on his grandparents’ grainy black and white television. Like George, I’m a YUGE Doctor Who fan. So much of a fan in fact…

The post Doctor Who and the Obnoxious MP appeared first on The AIM Network.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Sunday, May 21, 2017 - 16:01 Source

Note: “Immigration Minister Peter Dutton has given 7,500 asylum seekers living in Australia until October to lodge an application for protection, or face deportation, declaring the “game is up” for “fake refugees”.” Media Release Dutton’s Deadline for Asylum Seekers Cruel: Rintoul Refugee Action Coalition Sydney Coordinator Ian Rintoul today said of Dutton’s asylum seeker processing…

The post Refugee advocate slams Dutton’s deadline appeared first on The AIM Network.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Sunday, May 21, 2017 - 14:30 Source

In amongst the budget, responses and ‘expert analysis’, you might have missed the news that so called conservative ‘warrior’ and MP for the seat of Dawson in Central Queensland, George Christensen, recently became a medical tourist to Asia. Christensen, who before the operation weighed in at 176 kilograms, went to Malaysia for an operation to…

The post Falling through the cracks appeared first on The AIM Network.

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Club Troppo Sunday, May 21, 2017 - 14:28 Source
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Your Democracy Sunday, May 21, 2017 - 13:28 Source

just another racket ...

It is increasingly evident how pernicious the privatisation myth is. Two recent examples have underlined it: the failings in Australia’s privatised energy grid and the usurious pricing in airport car parks. Both examples demonstrated that it is folly to expect a public benefit to inevitably emerge from private profit seeking.  

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