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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 14:48 Source

Via the marvelous George Theranou of UBS: Since the start of the year we expected GDP to drop, gradually raising unemployment, vs consensus & RBA still expect a flat/falling UR. This is the key driver of our dovish view of a peak in wages growth (also reflecting public sector wage caps). Importantly, the RBA just

The post UBS: Wage growth done as women, aged, migrants fight for jobs appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Friday, August 23, 2019 - 14:35 Source

catfood...

Scummo is slowly destroying the ABC...

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 14:24 Source

Via Patrick Commins at the AFR: Speaking at an Australian Business Economists’ event in Sydney, Westpac Institutional Bank boss Lyn Cobley wondered why the RBA was even entertaining the idea of implementing experimental policy measures in Australia, such as a quantitative easing (QE) program of the sort implemented in the United States, Europe, Britain and

The post AFR pundits need monetary policy schooling appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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THE BLOT REPORT Friday, August 23, 2019 - 13:33 Source

Working out when life
on Earth started has always been difficult because the Earth is constantly
recycling, albeit slowly, the rocks in its crust. As a consequence, the older
the rocks are, the less likely they are to have survived intact, and these are
the rocks in which fossils of the earliest life would be likely to be
preserved. Currently, the oldest known fossils are from Greenland and are dated
at approximately 3.7 billion years old. These are about 200 million years older
than the previous record holder from the Pilbara in Western Australia, which

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 13:31 Source

Via Bill Evans a Westpac: The minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting for August provided one significant surprise. In the Governor’s decision statement following the meeting on August 6, the conclusion included “the Board would continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy if needed to support sustainable growth

The post Bill Evans: RBA readying slash and burn rate cuts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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John Quiggin Friday, August 23, 2019 - 13:30 Source

A commenter at Crooked Timber just made the often-repeated claim ““Forty years ago (1970’s) global cooling was all the rage!””. As it happens, just before reading this comment, I received a link to some files from the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum. It’s a daily log or similar, and starts with a response to someone named Frank Press who had written to Carter raising concerns about CO2 emissions and global warming. The advice given to Carter was as follows:

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Renew Economy Friday, August 23, 2019 - 12:30 Source

A $3.1m pilot project to produce green hydrogen via electrolysis at existing BOC gas facility in Queensland wins $950,000 from Australian Renewable Energy Agency.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 12:30 Source

Via the ABC: A Nobel laureate in dark energy scared the bejeezus out of Australia’s university chiefs and intelligence agency officials a fortnight ago. “I want my pain to be your gain so that you know what we are up against,” astrophysicist Professor Brian Schmidt said. He warned of an existential threat to free and

The post ANU confesses massive China data hack appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 12:15 Source

UBS’ Jonathon Mott is freaking out a little declaring that RBA’s cure of rate cuts may be worse the housing correction “disease”: With interest rates now ultra-low, the ability of the banks to generate a lending spread and return on equity is very challenged. It is possible that RBA rate cuts could lead to a

The post Blame APRA not RBA for any property bubble reflation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, August 23, 2019 - 12:09 Source

5B plans to deploy "big field" Maverick models and set solar installation "speed record" for proposed 10GW mega-project in Northern Territory

The post 5B plans solar “speed record” for 10GW plant in north Australia appeared first on RenewEconomy.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 12:00 Source

Via Martin North: Analysis released today by Digital Finance Analytics reveals that in the coming 12 months around 124,000 interest only loans will need to be switched to principal and interest loans. This is drawing data from our rolling household surveys. This translates to an estimated value of $47 billion, and represents a significant proportion

The post Is the interest-only mortgage cliff still an issue? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 11:45 Source

Via Cameron Kusher: The national housing market has just experienced its largest downturn in dwelling values since at least the 1980s. The fact that values nationally fell by less than 10% speaks to the ongoing strength of the housing market over the past 40 years which has culminated in Australia being one of the most

The post CoreLogic: Property recovery “quite real” appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 11:30 Source

Why would anyone buy an apartment today? Via the ABC: Unit owners in Sydney’s evacuated Mascot Towers building have learnt the repair bill could blow out to $20 million as construction engineers zero in on what caused the complex to crack. At an extraordinary general meeting in Sydney on Thursday night, the owners of units

The post Mascot Towers bill explodes appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 11:15 Source

The usual sneering of the anti-intellectual fake left has greeted President Donald Trump’s offer to buy Greenland from the Danes. Leading the way as usual was the insufferable Guardian bt a quote at Esquire nicely summarised the view: This is Mad King stuff. He says he wants to buy something—and some people—who are not for sale,

The post Fake Left dills trash Trump Greenland purchase appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 11:00 Source

Via the AFR: Oil and gas major Shell has triggered a major shake-up of the east coast electricity supply market, striking a $617 million deal to acquire business retailer ERM Power as it prepares for the radical disruption it expects throughout the sector because of the wide-scale shift to renewables. The agreement, struck at a

The post ACCC should block gas cartel power play appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 10:45 Source

Has it twigged? Via The Guardian: Labor is claiming that Peter Dutton has lost control of Australia’s borders, saying 80,000 people have arrived by plane to claim asylum since 2014. The new line of attack against the Morrison government – spearheaded by the home affairs spokeswoman, Kristina Keneally – comes as the ALP prepares to

The post Labor discovers borders appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 10:30 Source

Via Bloomie comes Satyajit Das: But the unusual size of the moves — regularly on the order of 1 per cent to 3 per cent — is being heightened by something else: the struggle to find someone with whom to trade. The decline in trading liquidity is evident in several metrics. Volumes have declined. Since

The post Das: Volatility is warning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 10:15 Source

It’s MSM China madness today and about time. Crikey leads off with a new push to support hawkishness from John Fitzgerald, Emeritus Professor in the Centre for Social Impact at Swinburne: Senior Australian political figures can curse the American president as often as they please without fearing Trump will halt shipments of Australian beef or tell

The post Australia pivots from China as NSW Labor fastens to it appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 10:00 Source

Last weekend, CoreLogic released its preliminary auction clearance rates, which revealed the following results: Yesterday, CoreLogic released its final auction results, which reported a 3.6% decline in the final national auction clearance rate to 73.0% – well above the same weekend last year (53.3%) and also above last week’s 67.8%: As you can see, Sydney’s final

The post Final auction clearance rate highest in 27 months appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Friday, August 23, 2019 - 10:00 Source

We could organize a nationwide old-photo-album search, but the real Worst McFly is probably lost to time.

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Your Democracy Friday, August 23, 2019 - 09:52 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 09:30 Source

Via bearish legend Albert Edwards of Societe General: …investors are perplexed. How can government bond yields have fallen so low in such a short space of time…there is a lot more to come.” …when you see the creeping advance of negative bond yields throughout the investment universe, you really start to doubt your sanity. For

The post The Ice Age returns to sink yields appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 09:30 Source

By Chris Becker  No room for optimism on overseas markets last night as the lack of direction in Asia yesterday translated into mild selling on both sides of the Atlantic. Treasuries sold off slightly while gold retraced on some slightly hawkish Fed comments. Looking at the action on Asian markets yesterday, where Chinese stocks were quite mixed

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Friday, August 23, 2019 - 09:16 Source

trumpone

Here we go again – joining an American military adventure created by Donald Trump, an adventure that has no end in sight.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 09:15 Source

This is where we don’t want trade wars to go. Via Herald Sun: Australian iron ore is suspected of being used to help build China’s next-generation nuclear-powered and ballistic-missile attack submarines, according to security and industry experts. Consignments from Australia’s booming iron ore exports to China are likely being diverted by Beijing into the steel

The post Pig iron Scott. Aussie iron ore building Chinese naval threat appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 09:00 Source

Texture from Reuters: “We believe the selling has been overdone,” said ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes. “We see prices stabilising at around $90 a tonne in the near term.” “Steel output curbs in China and ongoing trade tension with the U.S. are the key headwinds,” Hynes said in a note. “These should result in

The post Daily iron ore price update (it ain’t over) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 06:11 Source

DXY eased overnight despite a weak EUR and CNY hitting an eleven year low: Here it is with a chart to disturb the even a hardened geopolitical observer: The Australian dollar was hammered versus DMs: And EMs: Gold held on: Oil fell: Metals do not look well: Nor big miners: Or EM stocks: Nor junk:

The post Australian dollar belted as Chinese yuan breaks appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 05:06 Source

July added another month of good performance to the share and bond market rallies that have driven markets higher throughout 2019. Our tactical portfolios continue to perform well vs other super funds: The issue we are facing in most of our portfolios is that we are positioned for negative outcomes, which means that we tend

The post MB Fund July Performance appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 00:10 Source

In the week ended 22 August 2019, the CoreLogic 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, jumped another 0.22%: The rise in values was driven by Sydney and Melbourne: So far in August, dwelling values have risen by 0.54%, driven by Sydney and Melbourne where prices are rising strongly:

The post CoreLogic weekly Australian house price update: Surging appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, August 23, 2019 - 00:09 Source

Earlier this month, Australia’s mainstream media was awash with articles touting “tiny homes” as a solution to the nation’s growing homeless epidemic. For example, SBS News reported the following: A new Melbourne-based project is aiming to break the cycle of chronic homelessness by using otherwise vacant government land to build “tiny homes”. Independent community agency

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