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Poll Bludger Thursday, April 18, 2019 - 04:47 Source

Not much doing in the one published poll to emerge since the start of the election campaign, reflected in a stable reading from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The post BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor appeared first on The Poll Bludger.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, April 18, 2019 - 00:16 Source

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: We think that the RBA will cut rates, probably in 2H. For further discussion of this view, please see our recent article “Can you feel the tension at the RBA” dated 20 March 2019. But we also think that officials are thinking about monetary policy with reference

The post RBA’s dodgy negative equity analysis appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, April 18, 2019 - 00:15 Source

By Leith van Onselen While Australia may currently be a preferred destination for international students, as evidenced by nearly half a million student visas on issue at the end of 2018: Competition for international students is heating-up, both from competitor countries and the source nations. For example, the Canadian Government is planning to expand its

The post Australia faces increasing competition for international students appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, April 18, 2019 - 00:14 Source

Via Bill Evans at Westpac: The minutes of the April monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board have provided the clearest signal yet that the Bank would be prepared to cut the cash rate. Firstly, the final section “Considerations for Monetary Policy” states “a lower level of interest rates could still be expected to

The post Solving the RBA’s employment puzzle appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, April 18, 2019 - 00:07 Source

Not that it is gospel or anything but not completely useless either: The Department of Jobs and Small Business’ Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment (the Indicator) has fallen for the twelfth consecutive month in April 2019, following a rise of eight consecutive months. The Indicator’s decline this month is due to falls in the US

The post Government leading jobs indicator tumbles appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, April 18, 2019 - 00:05 Source

From Capital Economics this time: • China’s economy stabilised in Q1 thanks to a marked improvement in activity last month. Admittedly, the latest surge in industrial production is hard to take at face value and is likely to be partially reversed in the coming months. And some downside risks to broader growth remain. But the

The post More on China’s dodgy growth numbers appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Thursday, April 18, 2019 - 00:01 Source

  Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Plummeting battery prices to make electric cars cheaper than gas cars in 3 years – Think Progress Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Lower for the Year, Vulnerable to Steep $15 – $20 Break – FX Empire Middle class struggles are now threatening the global economy –

The post Links 18 April 2019 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Grattan Blog Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 18:14 Source

Today saw Opposition Leader Bill Shorten claim that past increases in compulsory super contributions wouldn’t come out of wages.

The empirical evidence shows that over time, when there’s an increase in compulsory superannuation, it hasn’t affected wages growth.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten, press conference, April 17, 2019

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John Quiggin Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 17:11 Source

The US college admissions scandal is rolling on, seemingly endlessly. There’s been a lot of discussion of moral decay, hypocrisy and more. But no one seems to have mentioned the central point. The number of places in the Ivy League and similar schools has remained almost unchanged for decades, even as the demand for those places has been swelled by a wide range of factors, most notably by the growth in all forms of inequality, which is mediated in part by unequal access to education.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 17:00 Source

Mixed conditions across Asian stocks markets today with Chinese markets absorbing the trifecta of economic prints without much fuss while Japanese bourses advanced on a selloff in Yen. The Australian dollar still wants to move higher almost breaking through 72 cents and a new weekly high. The Shanghai Composite has floated along to close only a handful

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 16:46 Source

Battery costs will amount to a quarter of the total cost of making an electric car within 6 years, BloombergNEF analysis says.

The post Electric cars cheaper than petrol/diesel from 2022, as battery costs plummet appeared first on RenewEconomy.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 16:00 Source

This is a kind of tragic-comic opera – an opera buffa, in many acts and parts, observed by a traveller to Australia who is likely to spend the rest of his life surrounded by an indifferent populace. It is a ‘mob’ – unconcerned about the original and continuing wrong of 1788 and lacking in development…

The post Beyond the Palace Letters appeared first on The AIM Network.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 14:32 Source

Yesterday we heard from Grattan: …there have been a notable absence of savings measures in the past two budgets, other than the now almost obligatory measures to extract more efficiencies from the welfare budget. Budget consolidation has mainly been a revenue story. Revenues have increased by a full 2 per cent of GDP since 2013-14.

The post Mediscare 2.0 as states shove Scummo down budget black hole appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 14:28 Source

Jimmy Barnes and Simon Hackett both extol the benefits of electric cars.Jimmy Barnes drives a Tesla on holidays and says he can’t wait to make the switch to electric cars, joining other notable Australians.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 14:20 Source

It never rains but it pours, via the AFR: The Tax Office is ramping up audits of taxpayers with rental deductions after finding nine in 10 claims contained errors. The ATO audited 1500 taxpayers with rental claims and applied penalties totalling $1.3 million in 2017-18, but expects to carry out 4500 audits this tax time.

The post ATO targets landlord army’s 90% dodgy returns appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 14:13 Source

So much hullabaloo; so much pent-up anger and, let’s face it, so much opportunity for the political classes of Australia. The theme since 2016 is electoral interference; the object: whichever power so happens to afford an opportunity to gather support against. Demonising the Chinese has been a speciality of Australian politics since the first members…

The post Permissible Influences: Israel and the Australian Elections appeared first on The AIM Network.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 14:03 Source

Tesla says grid blue-print should reflect lower costs for batteries, as well as longer life-span and greater efficiencies.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 13:30 Source

By Leith van Onselen Shadow industry minister Kim Carr has flagged the possibility of imposing temporary import quotas on certain products if it wins the federal election, in order to prevent low-cost imports from flooding the domestic market. Carr has also expressed concern that the Trump administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminium imports could eventually

The post Labor proposes quotas to stop cheap import dumping appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 13:11 Source

The AUD is off and running, bursting above 0.72 for the first time in two months: Bonds are selling too: XJO does not like it: Dalian is hit by Brucutu: So is Big Iron. If this gets going it could be a decent buy: Big Oil is serene in the face of growing political risk:

The post Australian dollar rockets on dodgy China data appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 13:00 Source

By Leith van Onselen The Australian reports that the proportion of investors who are aged 60-plus rose from around 15% to about 23.5% between 2000 and 2017, whereas the number of negatively geared investors also surged from 631,000 to about 1.3 million over the same period: The statistics show that between 2000 and 2017, the

The post Australia’s ageing army of landlords appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 12:57 Source

Chinese data for March is out and is, as always, eye-popping. GDP slowed markedly in the quarter 1.4% though annual held up at 6.3%: Under the bonnet it starts to get stupid. Industrial production rocketed to 8.5% as the trade war crushed output. That’s just a plain lie in my book but we can’t have

The post Chinese data bullshit hits new heights but… appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 12:31 Source

Full time jobs in renewable energy increased across the board in 2016-17, led by industry growth in two of Australia’s most coal-dependent states, NSW and Queensland.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 12:30 Source

Via the Herald Sun: Premier Daniel Andrews is set to jet to China to spruik Victoria’s biggest road project at a conference for the controversial Belt and Road Initiative. Mr Andrews confirmed he would present at Chinese president Xi Jinping’s forum next week. In October, Victoria signed a confidential deal linking the state to the

The post Dan Andrews IS the Manchurian Candidate appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 12:15 Source

Via The Guardian: At every turn they clapped and cheered, enamored with the candidate’s prescriptions for universal healthcare, a humane attitude toward immigrants and the rejection of climate change denialism. Bernie Sanders was the candidate, and the people clapping and cheering were audience members who turned out in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, for a televised town hall on

The post Bernie Sanders runs amok on Fox appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 12:00 Source

By Leith van Onselen Over the past year or so, I have ridiculed the new found push by Coalition politicians towards decentralisation, noting that this is a pipe dream based on the settlement pattern of new migrants, which have overwhelmingly chosen to flood the major cities. My view was initially based primarily on data from

The post Migrants to the bush a “dangerous fantasy” appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 11:45 Source

By Leith van Onselen In his Budget reply speech last year, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten announced plans to impose a cap on the amount that can be claimed for getting tax returns done by a tax agent. Shorten said Labor would apply a cap of $3,000, claiming that 48 wealthy individuals had paid an average

The post Coalition, accountants wage war against Labor’s $3,000 tax advice cap appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 11:39 Source

indonesia renewablesChristian Breyer from LUT University discusses the newly released study that shows if Paris targets are to be met, everything needs to be electrified and powered by renewables.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 11:30 Source

Via News: With Sydney and Melbourne’s falling house prices infecting other capitals such as Brisbane, Darwin and Perth, some doomsayers say property prices could slump by as much as 50 per cent by 2022. Digital Finance Analytics chief Martin North says Sydney and Melbourne houses will suffer price falls of 20 to 30 per cent,

The post Hysterical property bear porn forecasting bottom? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 11:16 Source

Network owner Spark makes first move into owning large wind and solar project in what will be seen as a major threat to the business model of traditional utilities.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, April 17, 2019 - 11:15 Source

Via Westpac: • The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose from –0.54% in February to –0.09% in March. Despite this recent lift the Index has still registered four consecutive months

The post Leading index rises on phantom apartment spike appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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