Oz Blog News Commentary

Articles from Peter Martin

No snapback: Reserve Bank no longer confident of quick bounce out of recession

August 7, 2020 - 10:27 -- Admin

The good news in the Reserve Bank’s latest quarterly set of forecasts is that the recession won’t be as steep as it thought last time.

The bad news is it now expects ultra-weak economic growth to drag on and on, pushing out the recovery and meaning Australia won’t return to the path it was on for years if not the end of the decade.

Economists back social distancing 34-9 in new Economic Society-Conversation survey

May 18, 2020 - 14:49 -- Admin

Australian economists overwhelmingly back social distancing measures that slow the spread of coronavirus over the alternative of easing restrictions and allowing the spread of the disease to pick up.

But a significant minority, 9 of the 47 leading economists polled in the first of a series of monthly surveys, say they would support an easing of restrictions even if it did allow the spread to accelerate.

The Reserve Bank thinks the recovery will look V-shaped. There are reasons to doubt it

May 9, 2020 - 18:26 -- Admin

The Reserve Bank’s long-awaited two-year forecasts for jobs, wages and growth are frightening, but I fear they are not frightening enough.

The bank looks two years ahead every three months. The last set of forecasts, released at the start of February, mentioned coronavirus mainly as a source of “uncertainty”.

That’s how much things have changed.

The key to the success of the $130 billion wage subsidy is retrospective paid work

March 30, 2020 - 18:23 -- Admin

The secret sauce in the government’s A$130 billion JobKeeper payment is that it will be retrospective, in the best possible way.

It’ll not only go to employers who have suffered losses and had employees on their books tonight, March 30, but to employers who have suffered losses and had workers on their books as far back as March 1.