3:06pm – I’ll be wrapping up the live blog here. There’s a few extra bits of analysis I’d like to do, but I’ll leave those for another blog post.
If you want to see me talking about the redistribution I will be doing a webinar for my employer GovConnex at 4pm. You can register for the webinar here.
I will also be on ABC Radio Drive in regional NSW at 3:20pm and ABC Radio Sydney Drive at 3:50pm, and you’ll be able to catch me on Afternoon Briefing on ABC News 24 after 4pm.
39 out of 46 seats were changed, leaving seven unchanged. These seven were Calare, Dobell, Farrer, Lyne, Reid, Richmond, Robertson.
2:53pm – The results of the last election was 77 Labor, 58 Coalition, 16 Crossbench.
Labor has gained Bullwinkel and Menzies, and lost Higgins and Bennelong.
The Coalition has lost Menzies and gained Bennelong.
The Crossbench has lost North Sydney.
So the new numbers (not including Labor’s gain of Aston) are 77 Labor, 58 Coalition and 15 Crossbench.
For Labor to lose their majority they need to lose two seats on a uniform swing of 0.4%, down from 0.9% on the old boundaries.
For the Coalition to gain a majority they need 18 seats. That required a uniform swing of 6.3% (assuming only gains from Labor) previously, and now that is 6.0%.
If you include potential crossbench gains, the Coalition needed a uniform 2CP swing of 4.0% prior to the redistribution, and now requires 3.9%.
There were 8 crossbench seats held on margins of 4.2% or less prior to the redistribution. The abolition of North Sydney and the increased safety of Wentworth lowers that number to six.
2:24pm – And here is the new pendulum.
Labor Seats
Coalition Seats
Seat
Margin
Seat
Margin
Gilmore (NSW)
ALP 0.2%
Deakin (VIC)
LIB 0.02%
Menzies (VIC)
ALP 0.4%
Bennelong (NSW)
LIB 0.1%
Lyons (TAS)
ALP 0.9%
Sturt (SA)
LIB 0.5%
Lingiari (NT)
ALP 0.9%
Moore (WA)
LIB 0.9%
Robertson (NSW)
ALP 2.3%
Canning (WA)
LIB 1.1%
Paterson (NSW)
ALP 2.6%
Casey (VIC)
LIB 1.4%
Tangney (WA)
ALP 3.0%
Bass (TAS)
LIB 1.4%
Boothby (SA)
ALP 3.3%
Dickson (QLD)
LNP 1.7%
Bullwinkel (WA)
ALP 3.3%
Cowper (NSW)
NAT 2.4% vs IND
Chisholm (VIC)
ALP 3.3%
Bradfield (NSW)
LIB 2.5% vs IND
McEwen (VIC)
ALP 3.4%
Nicholls (VIC)
NAT 2.5% vs IND
Parramatta (NSW)
ALP 3.7%
Aston (VIC)
LIB 2.6%
Wills (VIC)
ALP 4.6% vs GRN
Banks (NSW)
LIB 2.6%
Hunter (NSW)
ALP 4.8%
Monash (VIC)
LIB 2.9%
Reid (NSW)
ALP 5.2%
Longman (QLD)
LNP 3.1%
Blair (QLD)
ALP 5.2%
Bonner (QLD)
LNP 3.4%
Bruce (VIC)
ALP 5.3%
Wannon (VIC)
LIB 3.4% vs IND
Werriwa (NSW)
ALP 5.3%
Leichhardt (QLD)
LNP 3.4%
Shortland (NSW)
ALP 6.0%
Hughes (NSW)
LIB 3.5%
Eden-Monaro (NSW)
ALP 6.1%
Flynn (QLD)
LNP 3.8%
Macquarie (NSW)
ALP 6.3%
Forrest (WA)
LIB 4.2%
Dobell (NSW)
ALP 6.5%
Forde (QLD)
LNP 4.2%
Dunkley (VIC)
ALP 6.8%
Petrie (QLD)
LNP 4.4%
Holt (VIC)
ALP 7.1%
Durack (WA)
LIB 4.7%
Hawke (VIC)
ALP 7.6%
Bowman (QLD)
LNP 5.5%
Corangamite (VIC)
ALP 7.8%
Lindsay (NSW)
LIB 6.1%
Cooper (VIC)
ALP 7.8% vs GRN
Flinders (VIC)
LIB 6.2%
Greenway (NSW)
ALP 8.0%
Capricornia (QLD)
LNP 6.6%
Richmond (NSW)
ALP 8.2%
O’Connor (WA)
LIB 6.7%
Whitlam (NSW)
ALP 8.3%
Hume (NSW)
LIB 6.9%
Pearce (WA)
ALP 8.8%
Groom (QLD)
LNP 6.9% vs IND
Hindmarsh (SA)
ALP 8.9%
Berowra (NSW)
LIB 7.5%
Rankin (QLD)
ALP 9.1%
Braddon (TAS)
LIB 8.0%
Moreton (QLD)
ALP 9.1%
La Trobe (VIC)
LIB 8.4%
Solomon (NT)
ALP 9.4%
Fisher (QLD)
LNP 8.7%
Swan (WA)
ALP 9.4%
Fairfax (QLD)
LNP 9.0%
Isaacs (VIC)
ALP 9.5%
McPherson (QLD)
LNP 9.3%
Macarthur (NSW)
ALP 9.8%
Calare (NSW)
NAT 9.7% vs IND
Cowan (WA)
ALP 9.9%
Riverina (NSW)
NAT 9.7%
Gorton (VIC)
ALP 10.0%
Grey (SA)
LIB 10.1%
Hasluck (WA)
ALP 10.1%
Hinkler (QLD)
LNP 10.1%
McMahon (NSW)
ALP 10.5%
Dawson (QLD)
LNP 10.4%
Lilley (QLD)
ALP 10.5%
Mitchell (NSW)
LIB 10.5%
Makin (SA)
ALP 10.8%
Fadden (QLD)
LNP 10.6%
Gellibrand (VIC)
ALP 11.2%
Page (NSW)
NAT 10.7%
Hotham (VIC)
ALP 11.6%
Wright (QLD)
LNP 10.9%
Oxley (QLD)
ALP 11.6%
Moncrieff (QLD)
LNP 11.2%
Adelaide (SA)
ALP 11.9%
Wide Bay (QLD)
LNP 11.3%
Bendigo (VIC)
ALP 12.0%
Cook (NSW)
LIB 11.7%
Barton (NSW)
ALP 12.0%
Herbert (QLD)
LNP 11.8%
Macnamara (VIC)
ALP 12.2%
Lyne (NSW)
NAT 13.8%
Canberra (ACT)
ALP 12.2% vs GRN
New England (NSW)
NAT 15.2%
Jagajaga (VIC)
ALP 12.2%
Farrer (NSW)
LIB 16.4%
Calwell (VIC)
ALP 12.4%
Barker (SA)
LIB 16.6%
Corio (VIC)
ALP 12.5%
Parkes (NSW)
NAT 18.1%
Lalor (VIC)
ALP 12.8%
Mallee (VIC)
NAT 19%
Spence (SA)
ALP 12.9%
Gippsland (VIC)
NAT 20.6%
Bean (ACT)
ALP 12.9%
Maranoa (QLD)
LNP 22.1%
Ballarat (VIC)
ALP 13.0%
Maribyrnong (VIC)
ALP 13.0%
Blaxland (NSW)
ALP 13.1%
Burt (WA)
ALP 13.3%
Kingsford Smith (NSW)
ALP 13.3%
Curtin (WA)
IND 1.3% vs LIB
Chifley (NSW)
ALP 13.6%
Fowler (NSW)
IND 1.4% vs ALP
Franklin (TAS)
ALP 13.7%
Ryan (QLD)
GRN 2.6% vs LNP
Perth (WA)
ALP 14.4%
Mackellar (NSW)
IND 3.3% vs LIB
Cunningham (NSW)
ALP 15.1%
Kooyong (VIC)
IND 3.5% vs LIB
Watson (NSW)
ALP 15.1%
Brisbane (QLD)
GRN 3.7% vs LNP
Scullin (VIC)
ALP 15.3%
Goldstein (VIC)
IND 3.9% vs LIB
Fenner (ACT)
ALP 15.7%
Melbourne (VIC)
GRN 6.9% vs ALP
Kingston (SA)
ALP 16.4%
Indi (VIC)
IND 8.9% vs LIB
Sydney (NSW)
ALP 16.5% vs GRN
Wentworth (NSW)
IND 9.0% vs LIB
Fraser (VIC)
ALP 16.6%
Warringah (NSW)
IND 9.4% vs LIB
Fremantle (WA)
ALP 16.7%
Griffith (QLD)
GRN 10.5% vs LNP
Brand (WA)
ALP 17.1%
Mayo (SA)
CA 12.3% vs LIB
Grayndler (NSW)
ALP 17.4% vs GRN
Kennedy (QLD)
KAP 13.1% vs LNP
Newcastle (NSW)
ALP 17.9%
Clark (TAS)
IND 20.8% vs ALP
2:17pm – In terms of the degree of change, 46% of Blaxland consists of new voters, with over 30% of voters in Bennelong, Watson and McMahon. Over a quarter of voters are new to Warringah, Grayndler, Parramatta and Bradfield.
Outside Sydney, Riverina is most changed with almost a quarter of voters being new. Hume is also 23% new.
2:13pm – Changes were minor in northern NSW. Richmond, Page, Cowper and Lyne are either unchanged, or very close to it. New England has expanded slightly in two directions but has maintained its identity.
The Central Coast seats of Dobell and Robertson have also been left alone, with very minor changes to Shortland and Newcastle.
Paterson has contracted on its western edge, losing Kurri Kurri to Hunter, cutting Meryl Swanson’s margin from 3.3% to 2.6% and increasing Labor’s margin in Hunter from 4.0% to 4.8%.
Changes were much more dramatic in the south-east of the state. Cunningham has been largely left alone. Whitlam has taken in the remainder of the Wingecarribee Shire from Hume, but it already covered most of the population centres in that council area.
Eden-Monaro has expanded north to take in Goulburn from Hume, losing Tumut, Tumbarumba and Yass to the west of the Great Dividing Range and the ACT.
Calare has been left alone and Parkes has been slightly changed, but Riverina has moved a great deal east, expanding to meet the ACT and take in Tumut, Tumbarumba, Yass and Upper Lachlan. Farrer has been untouched.
2:06pm – Okay, an hour after the proposal was published, I now have the space to actually look at the maps.
On the north shore, Mackellar has expanded south into Warringah, with Warringah then compensating by moving west into North Sydney.
The committee has taken the Liberal Party’s approach of then dividing up the remainder of North Sydney into two parts between the Labor seat of Bennelong and the Liberal seat of Bradfield. This is good news for Paul Fletcher.
Bennelong has then shifted east, causing the seat to flip from 1.0% ALP to 0.1% Liberal, although margins always have uncertainty. Another analyst could easily see this seat as remaining in Labor hands. Parramatta has also shifted north, although it has spread out both to the north-east and north-west.
In the inner city, Wentworth has lost part of Clovelly to Kingsford Smith and gained Potts Point and Darlinghurst. These areas look small on a map but they are very densely populated and very bad for the Liberal Party so it’s a good sign for Spender.
Plibersek has picked up the Balmain peninsula, but there is no land connection to the main part of the seat. Grayndler has shifted south-west, picking up the remainder of Marrickville (including Albanese’s home area).
I was surprised to see that Kingsford-Smith has expanded past the airport to take in the Botany Bay shore including Brighton-le-Sands and Monterey. Cook has contracted to be more Shire-based, but still has a beach-head in Sans Souci.
Watson has shifted substantially to the west, taking in Bankstown from Blaxland, while Blaxland has expanded north-west to take in parts of Parramatta and McMahon.
Fowler has been left mostly intact, gaining a small area from McMahon. McMahon has expanded further into the Blacktown council area. Greenway has gained areas from the northern end of Mitchell while Chifley and Lindsay are largely intact.
Werriwa has contracted, losing its western and southern ends, while Macarthur has become even more Campbelltown-based, losing the fast-growing areas around Leppington and Oran Park.
Hume is now firmly a Macarthur-area seat, based entirely within the Wollondilly and Camden LGAs with a few sparsely-populated parts of Liverpool and Penrith council areas. It is no longer the vast and disconnected seat that included Goulburn and Camden while skipping over the Southern Highlands.
It’s also worth mentioning Hughes, which was traditionally split between the Sutherland shire and Liverpool. But it has instead spilled over the Georges River into Campbelltown, taking in Ingleburn, Macquarie Fields and Glenfield. This has really hit the Liberal margin.
1:50pm – And here is my interactive map.
1:43pm – Once we factor in the new area of Fowler taken in from McMahon, Dai Le’s margin is cut from 1.6% to 1.4%.
1:37pm – Okay I have fixed the figures for Blaxland, McMahon and Parramatta, will need a few more minutes to calculate a new margin for Fowler using the method used for Kooyong, Goldstein and Wentworth.
Labor margin in Parramatta cut by 0.9%. Bowen’s margin is only up 1%, not 3%. Jason Clare’s margin in Blaxland cut by 1.9%.
1:30pm – Okay small problem with “McMahon” not matching “Mcmahon”. Will change the estimates for Fowler, McMahon, Blaxland and Parramatta. Will take a minute to update my tables.
1:26pm – Hmm potential problem with McMahon, bear with me a minute.
1:23pm – So overall one independent seat has been abolished, and one neighbouring Labor seat has flipped from Labor to Liberal (by the slimmest of margins). The total seat count is 25 Labor, 10 Liberal, 7 Nationals and 4 independents (3 teals and Dai Le).
Interesting takeaways:
- Bennelong flips from 1.0% Labor seat to 0.1% Liberal seat.
- Allegra Spender’s margin in Wentworth increases from 4.2% to 9.0%, Sophie Scamps in Mackellar is up from 2.5% to 3.3%, and Zali Steggall’s margin decreases from 11.0% to 9.4%.
- Paul Fletcher’s margin in Bradfield has been cut from 4.2% to 2.5% against the teal independents. Kylea Tink’s margin in North Sydney was 2.9%.
- Dai Le’s margin has been cut from 1.6% to 1.4%.
- Chris Bowen’s margin in McMahon increased from 9.5% to 10.5%.
- Little change in Labor’s margin against the Greens in Grayndler (up 0.3%) and Sydney (down 0.2%)
- Liberal margin in Hughes halved from 7.0% to 3.5%.
- Nationals margin in Riverina cut from 14.8% to 9.7%.
- Labor margins in Barton and Greenway cut by 3.5% each.
- Parramatta Labor margin cut from 4.6% to 3.7%.
1:15pm – Here are the margins.
Seat
Old margin
New margin
Banks
LIB 3.2%
LIB 2.6%
Barton
ALP 15.5%
ALP 12%
Bennelong
ALP 1.0%
LIB 0.1%
Berowra
LIB 9.8%
LIB 7.5%
Blaxland
ALP 14.9%
ALP 13.1%
Bradfield
LIB vs IND 4.2%
LIB vs IND 2.5%
Calare
NAT vs IND 9.7%
NAT vs IND 9.7%
Chifley
ALP 13.5%
ALP 13.6%
Cook
LIB 12.4%
LIB 11.7%
Cowper
NAT vs IND 2.3%
NAT vs IND 2.4%
Cunningham
ALP 14.7%
ALP 15.1%
Dobell
ALP 6.5%
ALP 6.5%
Eden-Monaro
ALP 8.2%
ALP 6.1%
Farrer
LIB 16.4%
LIB 16.4%
Fowler
IND vs ALP 1.6%
IND vs ALP 1.4%
Gilmore
ALP 0.2%
ALP 0.2%
Grayndler
ALP vs GRN 17.1%
ALP vs GRN 17.4%
Greenway
ALP 11.5%
ALP 8.0%
Hughes
LIB 7.0%
LIB 3.5%
Hume
LIB 7.7%
LIB 6.9%
Hunter
ALP 4.0%
ALP 4.8%
Kingsford Smith
ALP 14.5%
ALP 13.3%
Lindsay
LIB 6.3%
LIB 6.1%
Lyne
NAT 13.8%
NAT 13.8%
Macarthur
ALP 8.5%
ALP 9.8%
Mackellar
IND vs LIB 2.5%
IND vs LIB 3.3%
Macquarie
ALP 7.8%
ALP 6.3%
McMahon
ALP 9.5%
ALP 10.5%
Mitchell
LIB 10.7%
LIB 10.5%
New England
NAT 16.4%
NAT 15.2%
Newcastle
ALP 18.0%
ALP 17.9%
North Sydney (Abolished)
IND vs LIB 2.9%
Page
NAT 10.7%
NAT 10.7%
Parkes
NAT 17.8%
NAT 18.1%
Parramatta
ALP 4.6%
ALP 3.7%
Paterson
ALP 3.3%
ALP 2.6%
Reid
ALP 5.2%
ALP 5.2%
Richmond
ALP 8.2%
ALP 8.2%
Riverina
NAT 14.8%
NAT 9.7%
Robertson
ALP 2.3%
ALP 2.3%
Shortland
ALP 5.8%
ALP 6.0%
Sydney
ALP vs GRN 16.7%
ALP vs GRN 16.5%
Warringah
IND vs LIB 11.0%
IND vs LIB 9.4%
Watson
ALP 15.1%
ALP 15.1%
Wentworth
IND vs LIB 4.2%
IND vs LIB 9.0%
Werriwa
ALP 5.8%
ALP 5.3%
Whitlam
ALP 10.1%
ALP 8.3%
12:55pm – And here is my estimates of primary vote and 2PP by seat. I’ll be back with the margin estimates in a minute.
I’ll come back to analyse in a bit but at first glance I notice that the 2PP in Bennelong is 50.1% to the Liberal Party.
Seat
ALP 2PP
LNP 2PP
ALP prim
LNP prim
GRN prim
IND prim
Banks
47.4
52.6
35.8
44.6
8.6
0.0
Barton
62.0
38.0
48.0
29.4
11.0
0.0
Bennelong
49.9
50.1
32.1
40.7
10.3
8.2
Berowra
42.5
57.5
23.9
47.2
14.9
4.6
Blaxland
63.1
36.9
51.7
27.1
6.7
1.0
Bradfield
43.8
56.2
17.7
43.7
8.6
25.3
Calare
34.5
65.5
15.1
47.7
4.6
20.4
Chifley
63.6
36.4
53.0
24.6
5.7
1.9
Cook
38.3
61.7
24.0
53.8
9.4
3.7
Cowper
40.5
59.5
14.0
39.5
5.9
26.2
Cunningham
65.1
34.9
41.2
24.5
20.7
0.0
Dobell
56.5
43.5
42.9
33.7
8.6
0.0
Eden-Monaro
56.1
43.9
38.5
34.4
8.6
5.9
Farrer
33.6
66.4
19.0
52.3
9.1
3.2
Fowler
55.9
44.1
36.6
17.6
4.9
28.3
Gilmore
50.2
49.8
35.9
42.0
10.2
4.2
Grayndler
76.7
23.3
52.7
17.8
21.0
1.5
Greenway
58.0
42.0
44.8
33.4
7.6
4.3
Hughes
46.5
53.5
27.9
40.4
6.4
13.4
Hume
43.1
56.9
24.2
42.5
5.7
11.1
Hunter
54.8
45.2
39.4
27.3
8.8
6.7
Kingsford Smith
63.3
36.7
47.4
29.6
15.8
0.0
Lindsay
43.9
56.1
31.9
46.4
8.0
0.0
Lyne
36.2
63.8
21.5
43.5
7.9
8.8
Macarthur
59.8
40.2
46.9
29.3
7.8
0.0
Mackellar
42.1
57.9
8.4
40.5
6.3
38.5
Macquarie
56.3
43.7
41.8
35.9
9.5
0.0
Mcmahon
60.5
39.5
48.5
28.1
6.1
1.3
Mitchell
39.5
60.5
25.6
52.4
12.0
0.1
New England
34.8
65.2
19.9
50.8
7.5
10.3
Newcastle
67.9
32.1
44.1
24.4
20.0
0.0
Page
39.3
60.7
18.6
45.4
8.4
13.5
Parkes
31.9
68.1
19.5
49.0
4.7
2.4
Parramatta
53.7
46.3
40.2
36.8
9.5
2.6
Paterson
52.6
47.4
40.1
37.6
7.7
0.0
Reid
55.2
44.8
41.6
37.9
9.4
3.1
Richmond
58.2
41.8
28.8
23.3
25.3
5.6
Riverina
40.3
59.7
24.9
43.9
6.7
3.7
Robertson
52.3
47.7
37.7
40.0
10.0
0.0
Shortland
56.0
44.0
40.2
31.8
9.9
2.7
Sydney
75.7
24.3
51.0
19.4
22.7
0.4
Warringah
49.3
50.7
12.0
34.3
7.9
39.8
Watson
65.1
34.9
53.9
26.5
7.3
0.0
Wentworth
48.8
51.2
17.7
37.5
10.7
29.3
Werriwa
55.3
44.7
39.1
30.9
6.6
0.0
Whitlam
58.3
41.7
42.4
29.8
10.4
1.5
12:47pm – The video also indicates that Hume shifts north to take in more of Sydney and go no further than Wollondilly Shire. Eden-Monaro would take in Goulburn.
12:44pm – The AEC’s proposal is still not up, but they have published a video which shows the maps of a few seats. You can see that Bennelong has been moved into North Sydney, wile Bradfield only shifts slightly. This is bad for Labor in Bennelong and also breaks up Kylea Tink’s territory more seriously than if Bradfield moved south to absorb the whole area.
12:04pm – The gazette has been published, and the seat of North Sydney has been proposed to be abolished. 12.8% of all voters in NSW have been moved into a different seat. This compares to 8.3% in Victoria and 14.6% in WA. We have no further details.
12:00pm – The Australian Electoral Commission will be announcing the draft federal electorate boundaries for New South Wales this afternoon. I expect they will be published at some point between 12:30pm and 2:30pm AEST.
My plan is to publish my estimated margins for each electorate, and estimated primary votes for the main party groupings, maps showing the old and new boundaries, some descriptions of what changes have happened, and the pendulum showing the new margins.