The Australian Electoral Commission today published the maps and data for the final boundaries for New South Wales for next year’s federal election, which makes it possible to calculate final margins and show maps of the new boundaries.
After the fold, the map shows the changes between the old boundaries, draft boundaries, and final boundaries.
My previous blog post clarified that the only changes were to Berowra, Blaxland, Bradfield, Dobell, Robertson and Watson. No other seat was changed. And so the changes between the draft and final boundaries are very minor.
I’ve also published estimates of the 2PP and primary vote per seat, and a table comparing the actual 2022 margin and the estimated 2022 margin for the new boundaries for each seat.
The changes of margins compared to my draft margin estimates are very minor. Labor’s margin in Blaxland drops by 0.05% and goes up 0.05% in Watson. It goes up by 0.04% in Dobell and drops 0.03% in Robertson.
I will do the same next Thursday for Victoria, and then publish a new pendulum for the new federal electorates. This will also allow me to start work on the final two thirds of my federal election guide, but with the Queensland and ACT elections coming up that will need to wait for November.
Estimates of two-candidate-preferred margins
Seat
Old margin
New margin
Banks
LIB 3.2%
LIB 2.6%
Barton
ALP 15.5%
ALP 12.0%
Bennelong
ALP 1.0%
LIB 0.1%
Berowra
LIB 9.8%
LIB 7.5%
Blaxland
ALP 14.9%
ALP 13.0%
Bradfield
LIB vs IND 4.2%
LIB 2.5%
Calare
NAT vs IND 9.7%
NAT vs IND 9.7%
Chifley
ALP 13.5%
ALP 13.6%
Cook
LIB 12.4%
LIB 11.7%
Cowper
NAT vs IND 2.3%
NAT vs IND 2.4%
Cunningham
ALP 14.7%
ALP 15.1%
Dobell
ALP 6.5%
ALP 6.6%
Eden-Monaro
ALP 8.2%
ALP 6.1%
Farrer
LIB 16.4%
LIB 16.4%
Fowler
IND vs ALP 1.6%
IND vs ALP 1.4%
Gilmore
ALP 0.2%
ALP 0.2%
Grayndler
ALP vs GRN 17.1%
ALP vs GRN 17.4%
Greenway
ALP 11.5%
ALP 8.0%
Hughes
LIB 7.0%
LIB 3.5%
Hume
LIB 7.7%
LIB 6.9%
Hunter
ALP 4.0%
ALP 4.8%
Kingsford Smith
ALP 14.5%
ALP 13.3%
Lindsay
LIB 6.3%
LIB 6.1%
Lyne
NAT 13.8%
NAT 13.8%
Macarthur
ALP 8.5%
ALP 9.8%
Mackellar
IND vs LIB 2.5%
IND vs LIB 3.3%
Macquarie
ALP 7.8%
ALP 6.3%
McMahon
ALP 9.5%
ALP 10.5%
Mitchell
LIB 10.7%
LIB 10.5%
New England
NAT 16.4%
NAT 15.2%
Newcastle
ALP 18.0%
ALP 17.9%
North Sydney (Abolished)
IND vs LIB 2.9%
Page
NAT 10.7%
NAT 10.7%
Parkes
NAT 17.8%
NAT 18.1%
Parramatta
ALP 4.6%
ALP 3.7%
Paterson
ALP 3.3%
ALP 2.6%
Reid
ALP 5.2%
ALP 5.2%
Richmond
ALP 8.2%
ALP 8.2%
Riverina
NAT 14.8%
NAT 9.7%
Robertson
ALP 2.3%
ALP 2.2%
Shortland
ALP 5.8%
ALP 6.0%
Sydney
ALP vs GRN 16.7%
ALP vs GRN 16.5%
Warringah
IND vs LIB 11%
IND vs LIB 9.4%
Watson
ALP 15.1%
ALP 15.2%
Wentworth
IND vs LIB 4.2%
IND vs LIB 9.0%
Werriwa
ALP 5.8%
ALP 5.3%
Whitlam
ALP 10.1%
ALP 8.3%
Estimates of vote share for final electoral boundaries
Seat
ALP 2PP
LIB 2PP
ALP prim
LNP prim
GRN prim
IND prim
Banks
47.4
52.6
35.8
44.6
8.6
0.0
Barton
62.0
38.0
48.0
29.4
11.0
0.0
Bennelong
49.9
50.1
32.1
40.7
10.3
8.2
Berowra
42.5
57.5
23.9
47.2
14.9
4.6
Blaxland
63.0
37.0
51.5
27.2
6.8
1.0
Bradfield
43.8
56.2
17.7
43.7
8.6
25.3
Calare
34.5
65.5
15.1
47.7
4.6
20.4
Chifley
63.6
36.4
53.0
24.6
5.7
1.9
Cook
38.3
61.7
24.0
53.8
9.4
3.7
Cowper
40.5
59.5
14.0
39.5
5.9
26.2
Cunningham
65.1
34.9
41.2
24.5
20.7
0.0
Dobell
56.6
43.4
42.9
33.7
8.6
0.0
Eden-Monaro
56.1
43.9
38.5
34.4
8.6
5.9
Farrer
33.6
66.4
19.0
52.3
9.1
3.2
Fowler
55.9
44.1
36.6
17.6
4.9
28.3
Gilmore
50.2
49.8
35.9
42.0
10.2
4.2
Grayndler
76.7
23.3
52.7
17.8
21.0
1.5
Greenway
58.0
42.0
44.8
33.4
7.6
4.3
Hughes
46.5
53.5
27.9
40.4
6.4
13.4
Hume
43.1
56.9
24.2
42.5
5.7
11.1
Hunter
54.8
45.2
39.4
27.3
8.8
6.7
Kingsford Smith
63.3
36.7
47.4
29.6
15.8
0.0
Lindsay
43.9
56.1
31.9
46.4
8.0
0.0
Lyne
36.2
63.8
21.5
43.5
7.9
8.8
Macarthur
59.8
40.2
46.9
29.3
7.8
0.0
Mackellar
42.1
57.9
8.4
40.5
6.3
38.5
Macquarie
56.3
43.7
41.8
35.9
9.5
0.0
McMahon
60.5
39.5
48.5
28.1
6.1
1.3
Mitchell
39.5
60.5
25.6
52.4
12.0
0.1
New England
34.8
65.2
19.9
50.8
7.5
10.3
Newcastle
67.9
32.1
44.1
24.4
20.0
0.0
Page
39.3
60.7
18.6
45.4
8.4
13.5
Parkes
31.9
68.1
19.5
49.0
4.7
2.4
Parramatta
53.7
46.3
40.2
36.8
9.5
2.6
Paterson
52.6
47.4
40.1
37.6
7.7
0.0
Reid
55.2
44.8
41.6
37.9
9.4
3.1
Richmond
58.2
41.8
28.8
23.3
25.3
5.6
Riverina
40.3
59.7
24.9
43.9
6.7
3.7
Robertson
52.2
47.8
37.6
40.0
10.0
0.0
Shortland
56.0
44.0
40.2
31.8
9.9
2.7
Sydney
75.7
24.3
51.0
19.4
22.7
0.4
Warringah
49.3
50.7
12.0
34.3
7.9
39.8
Watson
65.2
34.8
54.1
26.4
7.1
0.0
Wentworth
48.8
51.2
17.7
37.5
10.7
29.3
Werriwa
55.3
44.7
39.1
30.9
6.6
0.0
Whitlam
58.3
41.7
42.4
29.8
10.4
1.5