There’s a strong gerontocratic tinge to US politics of late — the youngest of Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren and Mitch McConnel is Chuck at 73.
Many a theory has been propounded to explain this phenomenon, but a simple one shall be put to the test in a couple of days: Trump is the last of the political candidates borne of the media monoculture and so Trump will win the election comfortably.
What is the Media Monoculture and What Does is Have to Do with a Gerontocracy?
Before Netflix and Spotify, we all broadly consumed the same media and picked up the same news, the same songs, the same sitcoms and movies. Now we’ve splintered and whatever we learnt through general cultural osmosis that we weren’t otherwise interested in doesn’t penetrate our personally curated media bubble.
This means the next generation of politicians, artists and forms of expression have no springboard from which to make a place in people’s minds. Instead, the names and tropes and art of the monocultural beforetimes stick around well past their due.
So Batman movies are rehashed, the Rolling Stones keep on touring and a gerontocratic cohort of politicians remain in power in the birthplace of the great media splintering, lording their name recognition over the next batch coming through.
Better the Devil You Know with Trump As the Last Relic of the Media Monoculture?
Theoretically, then, the big advantage is with Trump. He is the last of the politicians running for presidential office to have made his name during the great media monoculture. Harris, by comparison, is a no-name neophyte.
And if this name-recognition factor were to hold any sway in this upcoming election, we’d expect the following:
- a comfortable Trump victory of at least 300 electoral college votes;
- low turnout by Democrat voters
That, of course, wouldn’t prove Trump’s supreme name recognition was a significant factor in his election, but it certainly lends credence to it.
By contrast, a Trump loss or even a toss up means that at least presidential candidates can cut through the media splintering of recent times and reach voters.