For this post, I am looking at how the parties have done in the Victorian council elections, and I run through a quick summary of how each council went.
As of the time of writing, all but three of the wards I am tracking have been finalised. The Wilton and Yamala wards in Frankston and the Westerfolds ward in Manningham have reported primary votes, but no preference distribution. For this analysis I am assuming the primary vote leaders win here.
It’s worth noting that it is sometimes difficult to assess who is an “independent Liberal” or “independent Labor” and I am sure there are some I’ve missed. At one point on the weekend there was a report that independent Liberals had won a 6-5 majority on Greater Geelong, but then after further analysis this has dropped to just four seats. So just bear that in mind – for the map below, I have identified Labor and Liberal members to my best knowledge.
The only two parties that ran a large number of candidates officially were the Greens and Victorian Socialists.
The Greens had a mixed picture, but nowhere near as bad as first predicted.
The first thing to understand is the Greens mostly ran full tickets, or close to it, in a ring of inner city councils, and outside of this area they generally ran just one or two candidates in a council, focusing their resources. So in those inner city councils, you can look at the total party vote to assess their performance, but that doesn’t really work elsewhere.
I identified six major councils where they ran close to or full tickets in 2020 and 2024 where the swings may be of interest.
Council
2020 votes
2024 votes
Swing
2020 seats
2024 seats
Darebin
25.3
23.3
-2.0
3
3
Maribyrnong
12.8
22.1
9.3
2
3
Melbourne
16.3
14.2
-2.1
2
1
Merri-bek
17.2
22.3
5.1
4
4
Port Phillip
20.1
17.4
-2.7
2
0
Yarra
26.5
26.7
0.2
5
2
The swing against the Greens was around 2-3% in Darebin, Melbournue and Port Phillip, but this is not true in other councils. The party gained a big swing in Maribyrnong, and also boosted their vote by 5% in Merri-bek despite not running in two wards. The vote was steady in Yarra.
The effect on seats is also interesting. The Greens seem to have been particularly hurt in Yarra by a change in the composition of their opponents which combined with the change to single-member meant they lost in a lot of wards (and not by particularly slim margins).
The Greens in Port Phillip really suffered from the change in electoral system. Their vote is lower there than in Yarra and Darebin, but they would have won seats if the old 3×3 system was still used.
The Greens will be locked out of power in Darebin but they haven’t actually done too badly. Labor gained their majority at the expense of Liberals. They now hold three of the four wards in the Northcote state seat, which is the half of the council where they have ambitions at a state level.
And the Greens look strong in Merri-bek and surprisingly strong in Maribyrnong. They also retained their two seats in Banyule. The Greens won two seats in Boroondara (up from one) but were wiped out in Stonnington in Glen Eira.
When you look on the map, the Greens have quite a lot of wards in the inner ring, stretching from Brimbank, Maribyrnong, the southern ends of Merri-bek, Darebin and Banyule. The biggest holes in the ring are in Yarra and Port Phillip.
I can’t help but think that the Greens are disadvantaged in the inner city by the shape of councils, which tend to radiate out from the council, combining inner city suburbs with slightly more distant suburbs. This describes the Darebin, Merri-bek, Banyule and Maribyrnong councils. Just as the Greens would likely win a federal seat combining the southern half of Cooper and Wills, they would probably be dominant in councils that combined those inner city areas.
Outside of the heartland, the Greens have won a handful of wards, mostly in the south-eastern suburbs. The party managed single wins in Casey and Frankston and two in Greater Dandenong. A big question here is whether voters were aware that they were electing Greens members. With no party labels on the ballot, and postal voting limiting the amount of campaigning voters would see, it’s quite possible that the voters have had a lot of trouble knowing the partisan affiliation of candidates.
Overall I count 21 Greens wins in the area I have analysed, which is the same as the number of councillors they had going into the election. Although that is not the same as the number of seats they won in 2020 – for example, two Greens elected in Monash in 2020 quit the party prior to this election and were re-elected as independents. So it looks like the Greens will have a slightly smaller councillor cohort than in 2020. But they have coped pretty well with the unfavourable change in the electoral system.
The Victorian Socialists are interesting to analyse because they ran so many candidates. They ran 71 candidates in the area I’m analysing, out of 310 wards. They cracked 10% in 32 wards, and exceeded 20% in five wards. They polled over 40% in Greater Bendigo’s Whipstick ward, where Owen Cosgriff ended up winning.
The Vic Socs made the 2CP in four wards. They polled 52.7% after preferences in Whipstick. They also managed over 40% of the 2CP in Brimbank Harvester, Darebin West and Merri-bek Bulleke-bek.
As a comparison, the Greens made the 2CP (or were one of just two candidates) in 39 wards. Their biggest margin was 11.7% in Maribyrnong Sheoak. They also came within 1% of winning in two different wards in Ballarat. A slight swing would’ve seen the Greens win both the Brown Hill and Central wards.
Ballarat
At least two independent Liberals and one independent Labor elected, along with six others. Greens polled 12% running in five out of nine wards but didn’t win any seats.
Banyule
The Greens polled 22% of the vote and retained the two southernmost wards.
Bayside
Apart from a very small vote for the Greens, everything else was for people I have listed as independents, but the local Liberal MP claimed victory with apparently a majority of the council being Liberal members.
Boroondara
While a number of Liberal members ran as independents, polling at least 29% of the vote, only one was elected. The Greens won two seats while only running in three wards. At least two independents who won seats are very obvious teal-type independents, and in general people have claimed that progressives have won a majority here.
Brimbank
On an 11-seat council, Labor independents won at least five seats, along with one independent Liberal. A single Greens member won the seat closest to the inner city in the south-eastern corner of the council.
Cardinia
Mostly a nonpartisan council but at least one Labor independent was elected.
Casey
After four years without a council, a whole new group of councillors was elected, including one Liberal member, one Labor member and one Greens member.
Darebin
The Greens managed to maintain their three seats, losing one but gaining another, but Labor gained net two seats from the independents, producing a Labor majority. The old council was split 3-3-3, but the new council is 5 Labor, 3 Greens and one independent. The former Greens mayor Susanne Newton was defeated in the West Ward, being knocked out by the Victorian Socialists candidate in the 2CP.
Frankston
Most independents here are nonpartisan (at least on my list – I wouldn’t be surprised if I missed some Liberals), but the Greens won their first seat and one independent Labor member was elected.
Glen Eira
The Greens were wiped out here, after winning one seat in 2020, losing that seat to retirement and gaining another seat in a countback. Two Labor independents and one Liberal independents are sitting on the nine-seat council.
Greater Bendigo
The Victorian Socialists won their only ward in the state here, along with eight independents.
Greater Dandenong
Independent Labor members have won a majority, with at least six out of eleven. The Greens have won two wards, up from one on the last council. There’s also one Liberal.
Greater Geelong
There were some claims about independent Liberals winning a majority on this council but I’ve only been able to identify four out of eleven. There’s also one Labor independent.
Hobsons Bay
One independent Liberal was elected amongst seven members.
Hume
No party members appear to have been elected.
Kingston
Two independent Labor members were elected along with nine others.
Knox
Three independent Liberals and one independent Labor elected along with four others.
Manningham
Four independent Liberals were elected along with five others.
Maribyrnong
In a surprise result, the Greens won three seats, and came awfully close to a fourth that would have given them a majority. The Community Labor group lost their majority, also winning three seats, along with one independent.
Maroondah
Four independent Liberals and one independent Labor along with four others.
Melton
Greens and Victorian Socialists both contested a small number of wards but won no seats.
Merri-bek
Labor, Greens and Your Local Independents all polled between 22% and 25%, with Greens winning four, Labor three and YLI two. One other independent and Sue Bolton from Socialist Alliance also won seats. It seems like this council has been run by a relatively pro-housing majority from Greens and Labor and that group has a clear majority.
Monash
One councillor has been identified as independent Labor.
Moonee Valley
Officially-endorsed Labor candidates won four out of nine seats. The Greens have held seats here in the past but didn’t come particularly close.
Mornington Peninsula
All councillors are independents.
Port Phillip
The Greens were hit hard by the new electoral system here, winning no seats. Labor won two seats, the right-wing Residents of Port Phillip won three, the centrist People Empowering Port Phillip won one, along with three other independents. A local with knowledge of this council on my Discord explained this as a split between a right-wing group of three, a left-wing group of three, and three centrists in the middle.
Stonnington
The Greens were also wiped out here, but despite this it looks like left-leaning councillors have won a majority. This council has two independent Liberals, two independent Labor and five others.
Whitehorse
Two independent Liberals and one independent Labor were elected along with eight others.
Whittlesea
Aidan McLindon’s group polled 23.7% of the vote across the council, winning two seats. Labor won four seats, and five others went to other independents.
Wyndham
Three independent Labor, one independent Liberal and seven others were elected here.
Yarra
Yarra For All polled 33.9% of the vote and won four seats. The Greens won two, Labor won one, and other independents won two. This is a big defeat for the Greens, who won five seats in 2020.
Yarra Ranges
All nine seats went to independents.