There is a marked immaturity in the reporting of opinion polls and other political developments in Australia at the moment. I see problems in two main categories.
First is the seemingly endless pursuit of uniquely Australian explanations for what are obviously global trends.
The second is the tendency to ignore the historical reality that polls three months out from an election can be important signposts, but do not justify attempts to forecast likely election outcomes with any specificity.
Australian electoral prospects By Bob McMullan