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Booth map of the day – teal Sydney and Curtin

May 14, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

For today’s blog post, I thought I’d wrap up the remaining urban teal contests in Sydney and Perth.

To start with, this map shows the seats of Wentworth, Mackellar, Warringah and Bradfield. The first three have incumbent independents running for re-election, while the fourth had a strong contest that is now too close to call. Of course it’s worth emphasising that these maps only show the ordinary election day booths. Large parts of the vote have been cast through other methods and they are usually more conservative.

In the vast bulk of this area, the booths have swung to the teals.

In Warringah, Zali Steggall stayed roughly steady or went slightly backwards across most of her seat, but gained large swings in the areas added from North Sydney. Kylea Tink had polled a 2CP in the high 50s in this area, but Steggall’s vote is in the high 60s or over 70%.

Sophie Scamps also gained solid swings across most of Mackellar, except around Bilgola Beach.

Almost every booth shows a swing to Nicolette Boele in Bradfield. There has been a swing of over 3% to Boele, so that makes sense. Boele won most booths south of Pymble, although there are a few Liberal booth wins further south in Lindfield and Roseville Chase.

Allegra Spender actually suffered small swings in much of the eastern end of the seat, but those were balanced out by swings in her favour in the western end of the seat. It’s worth noting that the AEC’s margin treats Wentworth as being a notional Liberal seat with a 0.6% margin, which would imply a big swing to Spender. My estimate of her margin was 9.0%, and she is currently on 7.8%, which would be a small swing against. If you use Antony Green’s estimate instead, Spender would have made small gains. My booth swings are based on the seat-level margin.

And then in Perth, Curtin MP Kate Chaney gained swings across most of her electorate. The only exception was the south-western corner of the seat, around Claremont and Mosman Park. That is also the most Liberal-leaning area in the electorate, and was in 2022 (if not quite as much).