In a recent article for the Australian Financial Review, economist Christopher Joye made the case that the expansion of government at all levels was putting upward pressure on inflation and, by extension, interest rates. “At the federal level, the annualised monthly trend budget deficit has deteriorated rapidly from $12 billion in December 2024 to $24
The new prudential standard announced last month by the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) caps high-risk mortgages (i.e., with a debt-to-income ratio greater than 6x) at 20% of new lending, effective from February 2026. In line with government objectives to increase affordability through supply incentives, APRA’s policy does not apply to newly constructed homes. It
Wall Street is slowly drifting into holiday mode as risk markets peer through to 2026, with volatility contained to currency markets as Yen weakens significantly on the back of Friday’s rate hike by the BOJ. The USD took back some losses against some of the other majors with Euro now at a two week low
Earlier this month, I argued that Victoria was a “lead weight on Australia”, which was informed by the latest state accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). These data show that Victoria’s per capita gross state product (GSP) fell by 0.8% in 2024-25 and has risen by only 10.0% since the Global Financial Crisis
From the Market Ear: Nothing NASDAQ NASDAQ is in the middle of the range, trading at the same levels we traded at in late Nov, early Nov, late Oct, early Oct…you get the point. Why not at least at ATH? SPX has hugged bond volatility all year. The inverted MOVE is screaming ATHs… equities just
Last week, Cotality released its Pain & Gain Report, which measures gains and losses on established homes sold across Australia in the September quarter of 2025. Cotality revealed that the September quarter was Australia’s most profitable resale period in two decades. 95.5% of established homes sold nationally in the quarter made a gross profit, with
Switzerland has long been considered a shining example of direct democracy implemented on a national stage, with its people voting on all manner of policy proposals to decide in what direction they want to pursue. The latest proposal, potentially set to be taken to the Swiss people as early as next year, is a hard
By Ashwin Clarke, Senior Economist at CBA: We updated our economic outlook for 2026 this week. We expect GDP growth to pick up a little further over the next 6 months before settling down by end 2026. With growth above capacity, and a resilient consumer, we expect inflation to show signs of persistence and the
International Reading: Gen Z would rather cut Social Security benefits for current retirees than pay higher taxes to save the program – Market Watch Trump says tariffs have brought in $18 trillion. That’s impossible – Reason Recession indicator ‘blinking red,’ warns economist – News Week Trump’s tariffs crush small US manufacturers including music gear makers
A better finish for Asian share markets in response to a bounce on Wall Street overnight as a softer than expected CPI print was balanced by more evidence of a softening labour market as the US economy slows down due to the Trump regime’s well – “point at everything”…. The BOJ meeting today resulted in