The ferrous complex is up to its usual New Year games as speculation mounts about imminent yawnulus. There is some evidence for increased fiscal support in early-year bond issuance; however, the usual caveats apply. More and more, such spending is directed away from commodity-intensive uses. Additionally, the yawnies must now contend with the anti-involution investment
A huge fill in the US trade deficit overnight gave the USD some more power, while the latest US initial jobless claims suggest another weaker NFP print tonight that should encompass post shutdown data. Wall Street stumbled around however as did European stocks with oil putting in a surprise breakout, most likely due to protests
DXY is threatening a little again. AUS has a nasty candle but has not yet broken support at previous resistance. CNY is supportive. A rare up day for oil. Metal mania has turned DXY bust. Another nasty candle on big miners. EM sag. Junk refuses to corroborate any rally. US long-end warming up. Stocks struggling
In the years since the Global Financial Crisis, the Australian economy has become ever more reliant on government for positive outcomes. Much of the revenue required to underpin this ongoing intervention has been derived from the explosive rise in resource exports, which rose by well over 200% at their peak in 2023 compared with their
Asian share markets are not doing well as the positive lead from Wall Street dissipated overnight with commodity volatility continuing to dominate other risk markets while bonds go sleepy. Currency markets are selling off commodity currencies while Euro and Pound Sterling are trying to stabilise after a wobbly start to the new year, relatively speaking
The Market Ear on where we are. SPX stuck SPX remains stuck in the wide range that’s been in place since September. We’re now sitting in the upper end of that range, an area that has rejected price on three prior occasions, with 7000 (futures) standing out as major resistance. Mean reversion has been the
Readers will be well aware of the looming global LNG glut. Global LNG output rose 6% in 2025 and is expected to grow for at least another four years on the back of record-setting investment in new facilities. This year alone, two giant projects — Golden Pass in Texas and a major expansion in Qatar — are
The Albanese government’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers, which came into effect on 1 October, has pushed the last of Australia’s affordable housing beyond reach. Lower-priced properties, or those covered by the extended Home Guarantee Scheme price caps, have generally seen better growth since September of last year, according to new Cotality study.
The iron ore jaws are opening wide. Put your hand in if you dare. The widest in three years, in fact. Scuttlebutt is excited! Iron ore futures rallied on Wednesday to their highest in multiple months, boosted by hopes of improving demand in top consumer China following Beijing’s pledge of easing monetary policy this year.
During Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign for the U.S. presidency, campaign strategist James Carville coined a now-legendary catchphrase. Those four simple words were: “It’s the economy, stupid”. While originally intended as a campaign motto to maintain on-message, it became a de facto campaign slogan that remains a point of focus to this day. But in the