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Get set for a falling yuan

November 29, 2021 - 11:30 -- Admin

TS Lombard with the note: For the PBoC, growth and financial stability concerns trump inflation and worries about monetary policy divergence. The bank’s recently released Q3 monetary policy report indicates a dovish shift and confirms our expectations of sustained policy support for the economy, particularly for the property sector. A 50 bps RRR cut is

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Grattan calls for social housing future fund

November 29, 2021 - 11:00 -- Admin

The Grattan Institute has release a report entitled “A place to call home”, which calls for the establishment of a $20 billion social housing future fund. Below is the blog post explaining the proposal followed by my response: Australia has a housing crisis. Australians are spending more of their incomes on housing than in the

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Australian dollar teeters at cliff as ASX tanks

November 29, 2021 - 10:54 -- Admin

The Australian dollar is sitting right on vital support as markets digest Omicron. So far it has held but a break of support here opens big downside potential: The ASX200 has gapped 1.2% at the open but is being aided by firm American futures: Yields are rising as risk diminishes. Markets have this completely backwards.

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Morrison opens student visa floodgates

November 29, 2021 - 10:30 -- Admin

On Friday, Australia’s education and immigration ministers released a joint press release announcing reforms to visa arrangements to ensure a “rapid return of international students” [my emphasis]: The Morrison Government will introduce further targeted measures to support the international education sector to roar back, as international borders reopen… The new settings will extend measures to

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Daily iron ore price update (all bad)

November 29, 2021 - 10:00 -- Admin

The ferrous complex was hit on Friday 26th of November as the relief rally stalled then got infected with NU. Futures and steel were hammered: The latest drip of data is all bad. Mysteel’s weekly indexes are crap: Mid-November CISA output was terrible: Capital Economics is forcing me to review my assessment of the usefulness

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NSW COVID cases plunge before Omicron onslaught

November 29, 2021 - 09:38 -- Admin

Victoria has recorded another 1007 COVID cases and three deaths: By comparison, Victoria recorded only 150 COVID cases and zero deaths: The next chart plots daily cases across both states and shows that NSW’s cases have plunged: Active cases are now ticking higher in Victoria, but remain low and stable in NSW: 4 More importantly,

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China’s Evergrande shakeout still in full swing

November 29, 2021 - 09:30 -- Admin

China’s Evergrande shakeout is not getting better. Dollar bond spreads for developers did narrow slightly last week but remain at paralysis levels: That said, incremental easing is still underway at the ground level: It needs to be. Property sales are still terrible: Land sales remain apocalyptic with developer balance sheets still in outright survival mode:

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Macro Morning

November 29, 2021 - 09:30 -- Admin

Risk markets lost their nerve on Friday night in the wake of the Omicron breakout across the world, the new COVID variant proving too much especially for European shares which fell over 4% while Wall Street lost more than 2% in thin trade due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Currency markets were volatile with Euro spiking

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Let the Dutton Doctrine stand

November 29, 2021 - 09:00 -- Admin

Defence Minister Peter Dutton was unleashed on Friday: Today, we face the most significant change in our strategic environment since the Second World War. Once again, Australia finds herself in a region at the very epicentre of global strategic competition. A region witness to a military build-up of a scale and ambition that, historically, has

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Auctions deluge drowns clearance rates

November 29, 2021 - 08:00 -- Admin

This weekend marked the biggest weekend of auctions since CoreLogic began tracking the market in 2008, with a whopping 4261 homes going under the hammer: Accordingly, Australia’s preliminary auction clearance rate fell to 71.4% – a figure that will likely fall into the high 60s once all results are counted: According to CoreLogic: This week

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