RIO plans to ship the first ore from Simandou in late 2025 and ramp up to 60mt over 30 months. But that is only half of the Pilbara killer’s capacity. The other half is owned by a consortium of opaque Singaporean and Chinese firms in league with the Guinean junta, delightfully branded “Winning Consortium Simandou”.
If you don’t fix the gas market, it will erupt with every global energy shock. As oil rumbles on mid-east tensions, it is dragging up global LNG prices despite an immense glut. The NW Europe LNG marker is at $15.60Gj. The Japan/Korea LNG marker is at $16.40Gj. Australian spot gas prices, which determine electricity prices,
The Market Ear is bearish now. Eerie similarity JPM’s excellent Positioning Intelligence team thinks that there’s quite a few similarities observed so far in April to the dynamics of August last year. 1. A market pull-back post almost 30% gains 2. A similar magnitude of declines by this point MTD 3. Rising yields / resurfacing
Victoria is the nation’s most indebted state, with the lowest credit rating. S&P Global projects Victoria’s debt to inflate to $247.2 billion by 2027, up from $55.2 billion in 2019, making it the worst-performing state in Australia: Victoria’s deteriorating fiscal position is built on waste. Victoria’s “Big Build” infrastructure projects are running over time and
After deliberately ramping immigration into Australia to a record high, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has promised to halve net overseas migration from its recent peak. “It depends upon the economic cycle, of course, but what we want to do is to lower that number significantly to around about half of what it has been”, Albanese
Goldman with the note. USD: Still living in a Dollar world. As we wrote in our 202 3Outlook, the key risk to our baseline forecast of more balanced growth and gradual, modest Dollar depreciation is that continued US outperformance complicates the Fed policy path and, more importantly, Dollar assets could continue to offer superior total
The AFR is a card-carrying inflationista: Tim Toohey, chief strategist at Yarra Capital…notes that the United States didn’t see across-the-board price rises in the first three months of the year. “There’s still a strong disinflationary effect coming through the tradeable goods sector, which largely reflects China’s excess production being pushed through the developed world,” he
DXY looks to be getting set for break out: AUD virtue signalled a crash: North Asia is going nowhere: Oil virtue signalled an embargo. The gold whale swims on: Wall Street is handing the world another commodity inflation shock: Big miners are heavy underperformers as iron ore struggles: EM stocks yawned: Junk offering hope for
The latest data on the Chinese property market remains terrible. Via Goldman: Developers are still frozen out of funding markets and focused on completions, not starts. Excavator hours suggest only more downsides for new project starts: Steel demand is down big as well. Steel output is awful: Energy consumption via coal is going nowhere.
What is Money and why is the creation of Money something which is both fundamentally important to the financial and economic system, while at the same time something almost never considered, with the actual mechanics of it virtually unknown? This is the first of what will be a series of podcast discussions with