DXY is holding for now. AUD is licking its wounds. Lead boots bounced. Gold is firm, oil not. Metals are lacklustre. Mining bear intact. EM bounced. Junk toppy. Yields held the losses. Stocks fell anyway. I expect more AUD chaos for now. The market remains very short DXY, and such consensus trades often need long
Since the turn of the century, Australian policymakers have attempted to pump housing demand via stimulatory demand-side policies. These policies have ultimately driven mortgage debt and house prices higher, resulting in structurally worse housing affordability. The latest federal election was another prime example of this policy folly, with both Labor and the Coalition promising further
Asian stocks are responding positively to the overnight solid moves on Wall Street and on European bourses with the ASX200 actually leading the way in today’s session. The USD remains on the ropes after falling sharply against the majors on Friday night but is seeing a slight blip higher despite some dovish cooing emanating from
The US is having a grown-up jobs debate that would serve Australia well (or it would be if the Child President didn’t sack everybody he disliked). Goldman is typical. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to March 2025 nonfarm payrolls on September 9th. We estimate a downward
The Market Ear on is that all? Quick fear The latest move higher in VIX (including today’s “reset” lower) shows you that the reaction in VIX has been rather fearful. The short term “gap” between SPX and VIX (inverted) is wide. Source: LSEG Workspace Who do you trust? The VVIX panic has been “substantial”….leaving the
The news on inflation continues to improve, following the latest benign Q2 CPI print from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). On Monday, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute (MI) monthly CPI gauge was released. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, quarterly trimmed mean inflation remained low in July, undershooting the ABS measure. On Fabo’s
The sad vestige of globalism marching across the Harbour Bridge this weekend has met its maker already. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reached a decision for the full occupation of the Gaza Strip, including operations in areas where hostages are held, a source in the Prime Minister’s Office told The Jerusalem Post on Monday. Meanwhile, the sad
The Trump administration announced on Friday, Australian time, that Australia would be subject to the baseline 10% tariff. The result was positive news, reflecting that Australia is one of the few countries with a large deficit to the USA, importing more than double the goods and services we export to the US. Australia also has
Victoria disease is metastasising: The economies of Victoria’s neighbouring states may be the real winners of Premier Jacinta Allan’s plan to enshrine in law the right to work from home, as businesses eye a possible move across the border, the peak business bodies in Labor-led NSW and South Australia say. Ms Allan announced on Saturday
Higher-priced properties are typically the most volatile and sensitive to changes in interest rates. This volatility is illustrated by CBA below, which plots quarterly dwelling value growth for the most expensive homes against the least expensive homes. This greater volatility reflects the fact that the market for the most expensive homes is thinner and when