In yesterday’s post I explored some of the intra-party dynamics you get under Hare-Clark when multiple candidates from the same party are competing.
In this post I wanted to map out the relative strength of different candidates from within a single party across an electorate.
There’s some similarities in style to this post I did for the last ACT election in 2020.
Competition between candidates within a party isn’t just a matter of self-interested candidates trying to overtake each other. There are strategic benefits for the party.
Let’s take a scenario where a party has polled 2.4 quotas, split evenly between three candidates. A minor party has polled 0.7 quotas, entirely concentrated behind one candidate.
If the votes were cast under a Senate-style above-the-line system, the third major party candidate would have little chance of closing that 0.3 quota gap. But under Hare-Clark, all three of them are on 0.8, each able to gain preferences. It’s quite possible the major party would win three seats, and the minor party would miss out. To a certain point, evenly distributing votes amongst your candidates improves your chances of winning seats.
I have heard reports of parties deliberately spreading out their campaign efforts between each candidate by getting them to campaign in different parts of a seat. That is a common practice in Ireland, but it’s apparently used more quietly in Hare-Clark systems in Australia.
On the other hand, it’s possible different candidates have different support just because that’s where their supporters are based. I won’t try and judge why there is a geographic spread, but there is one.
This table shows what share of each party’s vote in each electorate went to the top-polling candidate, second-polling candidate etc:
There are some electorates where one candidate dominates the race. The most extreme case in 2021 was the Liberal vote in Bass, where then-premier Peter Gutwein polled over 80% of the party’s votes. Rebecca White in Lyons wasn’t far behind. Generlaly the most-popular Liberal incumbent in the other electorates had a big lead on the secondmost-popular. But the gap between first and second is close for the Labor groups in Bass and Franklin.
So for the rest of this post, I’ll run through some maps for the more interesting electorates and parties. I won’t bother with a map showing Peter Gutwein or Rebecca White topping their party’s votes everywhere.
Labor in Bass
Michelle O’Byrne polled almost 45% of the total Labor vote in Bass. Janie Finlay came second, with a third of the vote. This left not many votes for the other three Labor candidates.
O’Byrne won most booths understandably, but Finlay’s support base has a clear geographic basis, doing well in the western suburbs of Launceston, as well as the West Tamar region.
Labor in Braddon
Shane Broad polled a smaller percentage of his party’s vote than any other top-polling candidate. He only slightly outpolled Anita Dow, and Justine Keay came third with more than a fifth of her party’s vote.
There’s a strong geographic divide. Shane Broad won most booths in the eastern end of the electorate, in the areas around Devonport and Ulverstone. Dow topped the Labor vote in Burnie and areas further west.
Interestingly Justine Keay doesn’t really win many booths, but she came second in a lot of booths.
Labor in Franklin
Dean Winter and David O’Byrne polled very similar figures in Franklin, and had a clear geographic pattern. O’Byrne dominated in the Clarence area, while Dean Winter dominated in Kingborough. Toby Thorpe also managed to top a few booths around Huonville.
Liberals in Braddon
The current premier, Jeremy Rockliff, received almost half of the Liberal vote in Braddon, but the remaining vote was split fairly evenly, with the second, third and fourth-placing candidates all getting between 12% and 16% of the total Liberal vote. For this map I have excluded Rockliff to see the pattern for everyone else.
Roger Jaensch was the fourth-placed Liberal, and has a very clear support base in the Waratah-Wynyard council area, and spilling over into Burnie.
Adam Brooks dominated Devonport, while Ellis dominated Ulverstone and surrounding areas. The westernmost areas were split between Brooks and Ellis.
Liberals in Clark
Like in Braddon, the Liberal vote in Clark was dominated by Elise Archer, but there was a reasonably similar vote for the next two candidates: Madeleine Ogilvie and Simon Behrakis. Ogilvie ended up narrowly defeating Behrakis, and he had to wait for Archer’s retirement last year to enter parliament.
The seat of Clark is divided down the middle by the council boundary between Glenorchy (north) and Hobart (south), with a small part of the Kingborough council at the very southern end.
Ogilvie dominated most booths in northern Clark, while the City of Hobart was split between Ogilvie and Behrakis areas.
Independents in Clark
Okay so this isn’t technically competitors within a party, but the race in Clark was interesting as there were two strong independents. Until this election, strong independents have been uncommon.
These two independents, Kristie Johnston and Sue Hickey, also had different geographic centres. Johnston was Mayor of Glenorchy and Hickey was a former Lord Mayor of Hobart.
And what do you know, there is a clear divide. Johnston dominated all of Glenorchy, but her territory also spread down into northern and western Hobart. The larger Johnston area is reflected in her slightly higher vote, but both candidates polled votes everywhere. I clicked around the map and was unable to find a booth where the leading candidate doubled the other’s vote.
Of course, since 2021 there has been quite a bit of change. A number of MPs have retired or left their parties, and the 7-seat electorates will change the race. But these may give some insights to some candidates’ strong areas.