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Mapping intra-party booth results – Tasmania 2024

April 22, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

Prior to the Tasmanian election I produced a blog post mapping out the relative strength of candidates within the same party ticket in some electorates at the 2021 election. The maps showed which of a party’s candidates topped the vote for that party in each booth in a particular electorate. Today’s post is an update of that post, based on the 2024 results.

There was a number of electorates where a clear story is told when you plot the booth results for a party’s candidates.

This table shows the relative strength of each candidate in a party’s ticket.

Generally the first- and second-ranked candidates for Labor and Liberal tended to be quite close. Interestingly when I looked at the historical data, though, the gap between the first and second candidate has been slowly widening for the major parties since 1989.

I’ll start alphabetically with Bass. Michael Ferguson won every booth for the Liberal Party. When I excluded Ferguson, Rob Fairs dominated almost every booth.

The Labor Bass map was very similar to 2021, with Michelle O’Byrne dominating in Launceston but Janie Finlay winning most of the West Tamar area. So I’m going to skip posting any Bass map.

The Labor map of Braddon was also similar to the 2021 map, with Shane Broad winning most booths in the north-eastern corner, while Anita Dow won most booths outside this area. At a quick glance it looks like Dow’s area has expanded eastward, which is consistent with the overall results. Dow gained a slight swing while Broad suffered a 2.2% swing.

Both major parties produced interesting maps in Clark.

For Labor, there’s a very clear dividing line along the Hobart-Glenorchy council border, with Ella Haddad winning every booth south of that line, and Willie winning most booths north of the border. Willie represented the upper house seat of Elwick, which overlaps with Glenorchy, so that divide makes sense.

The Liberal map is much messier. Simon Behrakis won about half the booths, scattered through the electorate. Marcus Vermey won quite a few booths in the south, while Ogilvie won a handful, mostly in the north. Interestingly Vermey won more booths despite Ogilvie winning more booths.

I decided to tweak the Franklin map for Labor – the original map showed new Labor leader Dean Winter winning more booths, with Meg Brown winning a handful of booths in the Clarence area and Toby Thorpe winning a handful in the Huon Valley area, while Winter’s Kingborough heartland was very strong for him.

When you remove Winter, the booths split almost perfectly along LGA lines: Brown winning in Clarence, Toby Thorpe winning in Huon Valley, and fourth-placed Labor candidate Kaspar Deane mopping up what was left over in Kingborough.

The Liberal Franklin map shows the dominance of the two comeback Liberals – Jacquie Petrusma and Eric Abetz – in different zones. Petrusma won almost every booth in the Clarence area but nowhere west of the Derwent. Abetz won all but one booth in Kingborough and Huon Valley, plus two booths in Clarence. Nic Street managed a single booth – shout out to Blackmans Bay South.

Rebecca White absolutely dominated the Labor vote in Lyons, but when I took her off the map it looked a bit intriguing. All six other Labor candidates managed a second place in at least one booth.

Fellow incumbent Jen Butler didn’t win many booths, but she won all the booths in the Brighton area on the northern outskirts of Hobart. She also won all booths in Break O’Day council.

Third-placed candidate Richard Goss won all the booths around the Launceston area: again covering a small but crucial part of the map.

I assume the other candidates had local links to areas where they won (after removing White): Edwin Batt in the Southern Midlands, Ben Dudman in the Meander Valley, Carole McSweeney on the south-eastern coast, and Casey Farrell in booths to the east and west of Hobart.

Six candidates managed to win a booth on the Liberal ticket for Lyons. Guy Barnett won most booths in the north, while Jane Howlett dominated in the south-eastern corner which overlaps with her old upper house electorate. Third-placed Liberal Mark Shelton also won a number of booths near Launceston.