Campbelltown – 11:35 – The Liberal Party won four seats here last time, and their absence is keenly felt.
The Labor vote appears to have gone backwards by about 3%, and that may be enough for them to drop from seven to six seats, although it’s worth bearing in mind that the party has only held five seats for most of this term after the former mayor and an ally quit the party in early 2022.
Apart from Labor, you also have:
- Community First Totally Independent – look set to gain a third seat after two sitting independents merged their parties.
- Greens – after narrowly losing their sole seat in 2021, they are on about 12% and would win two seats. The party has previously won a sole seat in 1999, 2004, 2008 and 2016, but has never come close to winning two.
- Community Voice – Masud Khalil’s party looks likely to win two seats.
- Sustainable Australia – has won one seat, probably missing out on a second by relatively few votes.
- Adam Zahra – an independent who previously ran for One Nation, he has won about one quota.
That produces a council with six Labor, three for CFTI, two each for CVA and the Greens, and one each for Sustainable Australia and right-wing independent Zahra.
Camden – 11:21 – The Liberal nomination failure has drastically changed the shape of the council.
The Central Ward looks very boring, with Labor, Liberal and independent Peter McLean each retaining one seat.
In the North Ward, most of the Liberal vote seems to have moved to the Libertarian Party, who are currently on 1.85 quotas. Labor should retain their one seat despite not having an above-the-line box. The third seat has gone to new independent Abha Suri.
In the South Ward, the Libertarians have again gained a seat in the absence of the Liberals, and Labor has retained one seat. The third seat is a contest between two progressive independents: long-standing independent Eva Campbell, and former mayor Cindy Cagney, who had been a Labor councillor until the election. Campbell is narrowly leading.
This produces an overall result of 3 Labor, 2 Libertarian, 1 Liberal and 3 independents.
Blacktown – 11:15 – The return of the Liberal Party to Blacktown sees Labor lose two seats, but they look likely to win a majority.
The Greens have done remarkably well, polling 16-18% across their three wards. Animal Justice also polled 17% in Ward 3.
The Greens look likely on current numbers to scrape into the third seat in Ward 2, with the second Liberal and second Labor candidate narrowly behind, but that could change.
The Greens have also done well in Ward 1, and if all of the Labor surplus flowed to them they would win, but I suspect enough would leak to elect a second Liberal.
Overall the council at the moment is headed towards eight Labor, six Liberal and one Greens. That would be a net loss of two Labor seats, but would also see two non-Liberal independents wiped out.
Bayside – 11:09 – Peaceful Bayside were a new contender here, and the Liberal Party returned after not running in 2021. Peaceful Bayside leader Heidi Lee Douglas has polled a full quota, but her party has otherwise not done well enough to win seats.
It looks like Labor has retained 6 seats, losing one in Ward 1 to the Greens. The Liberal Party has won five seats – one in each ward – but no prospect of any other seats.
The Greens look likely to win a second seat in Ward 2 off Labor.
Greens councillor Greta Werner looks likely to retain her seat in Ward 3, narrowly defeating Peaceful Bayside and conservative independent councillor Andrew Tsounis.
In Ward 4, long-standing independent councillor Liz Barlow is leading, but the Greens and Peaceful Bayside are not far behind and I think one of them will likely chase down Barlow with the other’s preferences (plus a Labor surplus). The Greens are leading.
In Ward 5, Labor, Liberal and Peaceful Bayside easily win.
This produces a result of 6 Labor, 5 Liberal, 2-3 Greens, 1-2 Peaceful Bayside. This is a slight reduction for Labor and an increase of 2 seats for the progressive crossbench. The other independents were crunched between those new progressive crossbenchers and the return of the Liberal Party and have been wiped out.
10:49 – It’s hard to generalise but there are some trends:
- Where the Libertarian Party was an obvious contender to replace a missing Liberal, they did very well – it looks like they’ve won 2 seats each in Penrith, Camden, Mid-Coast and one in Canterbury-Bankstown.
- Greens have had some good results in Epping, Wentworthville and Blacktown 2, and may have gained a second seat on the City of Sydney.
I’m going to start running through my profiled councils one by one, in alphabetical order, summing up each one, and see how long that takes.
9:47 – Liverpool mayor Ned Mannoun has a big lead on Labor candidate Betty Green. We don’t have a preference count but he appears to be in a strong position.
9:04 – In Camden North, Labor didn’t manage to get a box above the line and the Libertarian Party is over 40% of the vote.
Right now council looks like 3 ALP, 1 LIB, 2 LBT, 3 IND. Little or no shift to the left, but Libs replaced by much less known candidates.
9:00 – Labor incumbent Nuatali Nelmes is neck-and-neck with Labor breakaway Ross Kerridge for the Newcastle mayoral, with the Greens having the next biggest share of the vote. Not sure how that will go.
Plus Greens have won a seat in Ward 3 and a chance in Ward 4.
8:55 – Looks like Lane Cove has elected a progressive majority.
8:49 – The Greens are also looking competitive in Wentworthville ward of Cumberland. Labor’s majority on that council is looking shaky.
8:44 – Greens look competitive in Ward 2 of Blacktown – currently on just under 18% of the vote.
8:29 – A tiny vote in Camden South suggests the Liberal vote has switched to the Libertarians there too.
8:27 – It’s a lot trickier to predict individual council races. In Parramatta, it’s hard to say how well Community Champions will do because it seems like they might have a lot of BTL votes, but it looks like a progressive majority with OLC wiped out.
8:24 – In Shoalhaven, where the Greens mayor has stood down after 8 years, the Greens are in third place on 19%, with Shoalhaven Independent Group candidate Patricia White leading with 44.8%. That council looks likely to flip to the right despite Liberal absence.
8:20 – The Liberal Party has a big lead in Ryde’s mayoral ballot. 40% Liberal, 24% Labor. This is the first time Ryde has a directly elected mayor.
8:14 – At the moment in the North Ward of Penrith, the Libertarian Party is polling two full quotas. The Liberal Party didn’t run there.
8:08 – Clover Moore is on 38% of the primary vote for mayor of City of Sydney, which would be a swing of about 5% but no-one else is close.
7:41 – One thing to bear in mind is that in the initial count tonight, votes cast below-the-line for candidates in an ATL group will not be counted – they will be added to the informal pile. They will be correctly counted later but makes it hard to analyse.
7:27 – I’m starting to see some random booths but it’s far too early to say anything yet.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in the NSW local government elections. Voters in 121 council areas have been voting for councillors and mayors today, and over the last week.
For tonight I’ll be mostly focusing on the 27 big councils which I profiled for my election guide. I expect it to be a bit chaotic and random tonight, but I’ll come back with a council-by-council call of the board blog post tomorrow.