The AEC released the final maps and data for the Victorian federal redistribution earlier today. In this blog post I’m going to post my final estimates of primary votes, two-party-preferred and two-candidate-preferred margins for each seat. At the end I’ve also posted the final pendulum after the completion of the redistributions in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, although we have the draft boundaries for the NT redistribution due tomorrow.
First up, this map shows the changes between the 2022 boundaries, the draft 2025 boundaries and the final boundaries for Victoria.
As we found out in early September, only nine seats have experienced any change compared to the draft boundaries: Ballarat, Bendigo, Chisholm, Corangamite, Hotham, McEwen, Nicholls, Scullin, Wannon.
You can see this in the margins, because the changes are mostly very small. The Labor margin in Bendigo is cut from 12.1% in 2022, to 12.0% in the draft, to 11.2% in the final version. The Nationals margin in Nicholls drops from 2.5% to 2.3%, and Labor’s margin in McEwen increases from 3.4% to 3.8%. Labor’s margin in Scullin is also up from 15.3% to 15.5%. All the other changes are barely perceptible.
The pendulum is very similar to the one I posted after the draft boundaries were published for NSW in June. In net terms the ALP and Coalition remain on 77 and 58 respectively, with the number of crossbench seats cut from 16 to 15 with the loss of North Sydney. None of the swing-to-win calculations I used there have changed.
Estimates of two-candidate-preferred margins
Seat
Old margin
New margin
Aston
LIB 2.8%
LIB 2.6%
Ballarat
ALP 13.0%
ALP 13.0%
Bendigo
ALP 12.1%
ALP 12.0%
Bruce
ALP 6.6%
ALP 5.3%
Calwell
ALP 12.4%
ALP 12.4%
Casey
LIB 1.5%
LIB 1.4%
Chisholm
ALP 6.4%
ALP 3.3%
Cooper
ALP vs GRN 8.7%
ALP vs GRN 7.8%
Corangamite
ALP 7.6%
ALP 7.8%
Corio
ALP 12.8%
ALP 12.5%
Deakin
LIB 0.2%
LIB 0.0%
Dunkley
ALP 6.3%
ALP 6.8%
Flinders
LIB 6.7%
LIB 6.2%
Fraser
ALP 16.5%
ALP 16.6%
Gellibrand
ALP 11.5%
ALP 11.2%
Gippsland
NAT 20.6%
NAT 20.6%
Goldstein
IND vs LIB 2.9%
IND vs LIB 3.9%
Gorton
ALP 10.0%
ALP 10.0%
Hawke
ALP 7.6%
ALP 7.6%
Higgins (abolished)
ALP 2.1%
Holt
ALP 7.1%
ALP 7.1%
Hotham
ALP 14.3%
ALP 11.6%
Indi
IND vs LIB 8.9%
IND vs LIB 8.9%
Isaacs
ALP 6.9%
ALP 9.5%
Jagajaga
ALP 12.3%
ALP 12.2%
Kooyong
IND vs LIB 2.9%
IND vs LIB 3.5%
La Trobe
LIB 8.7%
LIB 8.4%
Lalor
ALP 12.8%
ALP 12.8%
Macnamara
ALP 12.2%
ALP 12.2%
Mallee
NAT 19.0%
NAT 19.0%
Maribyrnong
ALP 12.4%
ALP 13.0%
McEwen
ALP 3.3%
ALP 3.4%
Melbourne
GRN vs ALP 10.2%
GRN vs ALP 6.9%
Menzies
LIB 0.7%
ALP 0.4%
Monash
LIB 2.9%
LIB 2.9%
Nicholls
NAT vs IND 3.8%
NAT vs IND 2.5%
Scullin
ALP 15.6%
ALP 15.3%
Wannon
LIB vs IND 3.9%
LIB vs IND 3.4%
Wills
ALP vs GRN 8.6%
ALP vs GRN 4.6%
Estimates of vote share for final electoral boundaries
Seat
ALP 2PP
LIB 2PP
ALP prim
LNP prim
GRN prim
IND prim
Aston
47.4
52.6
32.5
42.8
12.2
0.1
Ballarat
63.0
37.0
44.8
27.1
14.6
2.1
Bendigo
61.2
38.8
42.1
27.3
13.8
4.7
Bruce
55.3
44.7
40.3
31.7
9.7
0.2
Calwell
62.4
37.6
44.9
23.7
9.8
0.0
Casey
48.6
51.4
25.1
36.6
13.1
11.4
Chisholm
53.3
46.7
34.8
39.2
14.1
4.0
Cooper
75.7
24.3
40.7
16.2
28.4
0.0
Corangamite
57.9
42.2
38.4
34.0
15.3
0.0
Corio
62.5
37.5
41.9
25.0
14.7
0.1
Deakin
50.0
50.0
32.9
41.5
14.2
1.1
Dunkley
56.8
43.2
40.5
31.7
10.6
3.4
Flinders
43.8
56.2
22.8
43.3
9.5
11.7
Fraser
66.6
33.4
42.1
24.5
18.9
0.0
Gellibrand
61.2
38.8
42.8
27.2
15.6
0.3
Gippsland
29.4
70.6
19.2
54.1
8.5
0.0
Goldstein
46.3
53.7
13.6
39.6
8.4
31.3
Gorton
60.0
40.0
41.3
27.4
9.0
2.5
Hawke
57.6
42.4
36.7
26.4
8.9
7.9
Holt
57.1
42.9
40.8
29.5
8.6
3.0
Hotham
61.6
38.4
43.1
28.6
14.7
0.3
Indi
44.7
55.3
8.6
34.3
3.6
40.7
Isaacs
59.5
40.5
42.8
29.5
12.1
0.0
Jagajaga
62.2
37.8
40.8
29.2
16.7
3.0
Kooyong
46.3
53.7
11.3
43.4
9.9
31.0
La Trobe
41.6
58.4
26.2
45.2
10.9
0.0
Lalor
62.8
37.2
44.1
25.0
10.4
2.8
Macnamara
62.2
37.8
31.7
29.1
29.7
1.9
Mallee
31.0
69.0
16.8
49.1
5.3
12.2
Maribyrnong
63.0
37.0
42.2
26.8
16.7
0.0
McEwen
53.8
46.2
37.2
32.7
14.1
0.0
Melbourne
73.1
26.9
25.7
19.5
44.7
1.0
Menzies
50.4
49.6
31.8
41.0
12.9
4.9
Monash
47.1
52.9
25.6
37.8
9.9
10.7
Nicholls
34.2
65.8
13.2
43.4
3.7
24.1
Scullin
65.5
34.5
46.3
21.7
10.9
0.0
Wannon
41.4
58.7
19.6
44.2
6.7
20.9
Wills
77.1
22.9
36.4
16.2
32.8
0.2
Pendulum
Labor Seats
Coalition Seats
Seat
Margin
Seat
Margin
Gilmore (NSW)
ALP 0.2%
Deakin (VIC)
LIB 0.0%
Menzies (VIC)
ALP 0.4%
Bennelong (NSW)
LIB 0.1%
Lyons (TAS)
ALP 0.9%
Sturt (SA)
LIB 0.5%
Lingiari (NT)
ALP 0.9%
Moore (WA)
LIB 0.9%
Robertson (NSW)
ALP 2.2%
Canning (WA)
LIB 1.2%
Paterson (NSW)
ALP 2.6%
Casey (VIC)
LIB 1.4%
Tangney (WA)
ALP 2.8%
Bass (TAS)
LIB 1.4%
Boothby (SA)
ALP 3.3%
Dickson (QLD)
LNP 1.7%
Bullwinkel (WA)
ALP 3.3%
Nicholls (VIC)
NAT 2.3% vs IND
Chisholm (VIC)
ALP 3.3%
Cowper (NSW)
NAT 2.4% vs IND
Parramatta (NSW)
ALP 3.7%
Bradfield (NSW)
LIB 2.5%
McEwen (VIC)
ALP 3.8%
Aston (VIC)
LIB 2.6%
Wills (VIC)
ALP 4.6% vs GRN
Banks (NSW)
LIB 2.6%
Hunter (NSW)
ALP 4.8%
Monash (VIC)
LIB 2.9%
Reid (NSW)
ALP 5.2%
Longman (QLD)
LNP 3.1%
Blair (QLD)
ALP 5.2%
Bonner (QLD)
LNP 3.4%
Bruce (VIC)
ALP 5.3%
Leichhardt (QLD)
LNP 3.4%
Werriwa (NSW)
ALP 5.3%
Hughes (NSW)
LIB 3.5%
Shortland (NSW)
ALP 6.0%
Wannon (VIC)
NAT 3.5% vs IND
Eden-Monaro (NSW)
ALP 6.1%
Flynn (QLD)
LNP 3.8%
Macquarie (NSW)
ALP 6.3%
Forrest (WA)
LIB 4.2%
Dobell (NSW)
ALP 6.6%
Forde (QLD)
LNP 4.2%
Dunkley (VIC)
ALP 6.8%
Petrie (QLD)
LNP 4.4%
Holt (VIC)
ALP 7.1%
Durack (WA)
LIB 4.7%
Hawke (VIC)
ALP 7.6%
Bowman (QLD)
LNP 5.5%
Cooper (VIC)
ALP 7.8% vs GRN
Lindsay (NSW)
LIB 6.1%
Corangamite (VIC)
ALP 7.9%
Flinders (VIC)
LIB 6.2%
Greenway (NSW)
ALP 8.0%
Capricornia (QLD)
LNP 6.6%
Richmond (NSW)
ALP 8.2%
O’Connor (WA)
LIB 6.7%
Whitlam (NSW)
ALP 8.3%
Hume (NSW)
LIB 6.9%
Pearce (WA)
ALP 8.8%
Groom (QLD)
LNP 6.9% vs IND
Hindmarsh (SA)
ALP 8.9%
Berowra (NSW)
LIB 7.5%
Rankin (QLD)
ALP 9.1%
Braddon (TAS)
LIB 8.0%
Moreton (QLD)
ALP 9.1%
La Trobe (VIC)
LIB 8.4%
Solomon (NT)
ALP 9.4%
Fisher (QLD)
LNP 8.7%
Swan (WA)
ALP 9.4%
Fairfax (QLD)
LNP 9.0%
Isaacs (VIC)
ALP 9.5%
McPherson (QLD)
LNP 9.3%
Macarthur (NSW)
ALP 9.8%
Calare (NSW)
NAT 9.7% vs IND
Cowan (WA)
ALP 9.9%
Riverina (NSW)
NAT 9.7%
Gorton (VIC)
ALP 10.0%
Grey (SA)
LIB 10.1%
Hasluck (WA)
ALP 10.1%
Hinkler (QLD)
LNP 10.1%
McMahon (NSW)
ALP 10.5%
Dawson (QLD)
LNP 10.4%
Lilley (QLD)
ALP 10.5%
Mitchell (NSW)
LIB 10.5%
Makin (SA)
ALP 10.8%
Fadden (QLD)
LNP 10.6%
Gellibrand (VIC)
ALP 11.2%
Page (NSW)
NAT 10.7%
Bendigo (VIC)
ALP 11.2%
Wright (QLD)
LNP 10.9%
Hotham (VIC)
ALP 11.6%
Moncrieff (QLD)
LNP 11.2%
Oxley (QLD)
ALP 11.6%
Wide Bay (QLD)
LNP 11.3%
Adelaide (SA)
ALP 11.9%
Cook (NSW)
LIB 11.7%
Barton (NSW)
ALP 12.0%
Herbert (QLD)
LNP 11.8%
Macnamara (VIC)
ALP 12.2%
Lyne (NSW)
NAT 13.8%
Canberra (ACT)
ALP 12.2% vs GRN
New England (NSW)
NAT 15.2%
Jagajaga (VIC)
ALP 12.2%
Farrer (NSW)
LIB 16.4%
Calwell (VIC)
ALP 12.4%
Barker (SA)
LIB 16.6%
Corio (VIC)
ALP 12.5%
Parkes (NSW)
NAT 18.1%
Lalor (VIC)
ALP 12.8%
Mallee (VIC)
NAT 19.0%
Spence (SA)
ALP 12.9%
Gippsland (VIC)
NAT 20.6%
Bean (ACT)
ALP 12.9%
Maranoa (QLD)
LNP 22.1%
Ballarat (VIC)
ALP 13.0%
Blaxland (NSW)
ALP 13.0%
Maribyrnong (VIC)
ALP 13.0%
Burt (WA)
ALP 13.3%
Kingsford Smith (NSW)
ALP 13.3%
Curtin (WA)
IND 1.3% vs LIB
Chifley (NSW)
ALP 13.6%
Fowler (NSW)
IND 1.4% vs ALP
Franklin (TAS)
ALP 13.7%
Ryan (QLD)
GRN 2.6% vs LNP
Perth (WA)
ALP 14.4%
Mackellar (NSW)
IND 3.3% vs LIB
Cunningham (NSW)
ALP 15.1%
Kooyong (VIC)
IND 3.5% vs LIB
Watson (NSW)
ALP 15.2%
Brisbane (QLD)
GRN 3.7% vs LNP
Scullin (VIC)
ALP 15.5%
Goldstein (VIC)
IND 3.9% vs LIB
Fenner (ACT)
ALP 15.7%
Melbourne (VIC)
GRN 6.9% vs ALP
Kingston (SA)
ALP 16.4%
Indi (VIC)
IND 8.9% vs LIB
Sydney (NSW)
ALP 16.5% vs GRN
Wentworth (NSW)
IND 9.0% vs LIB
Fraser (VIC)
ALP 16.6%
Warringah (NSW)
IND 9.4% vs LIB
Fremantle (WA)
ALP 16.9%
Griffith (QLD)
GRN 10.5% vs LNP
Brand (WA)
ALP 17.1%
Mayo (SA)
CA 12.3% vs LIB
Grayndler (NSW)
ALP 17.4% vs GRN
Kennedy (QLD)
KAP 13.1% vs LNP
Newcastle (NSW)
ALP 17.9%
Clark (TAS)
IND 20.8% vs ALP