6:56 – The Labor swing in Bundaberg has calmed down a bit but Labor is still winning there. I haven’t seen any other seats bucking the trend – generally there are respectable swings to the LNP all over the place.
6:54 – A bit more data in Thuringowa also has KAP in a respectable third there.
6:48 – Tiny samples in the three Townsville-area seats of Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra. KAP is in third in Townsville and Mundingburra, and practically no votes in Thuringowa.
6:43 – One thing worth watching tonight is whether first-term MPs gain a “sophomore surge”. An example worth watching is Labor’s most marginal seat, Bundaberg, where first-term Labor MP Tom Smith has a 10% primary vote swing on a small vote sample.
6:36 – There are numbers now but they are very small so I’ll wait before posting analysis.
6:11 – The Courier Mail has an exit poll which is reporting Labor and LNP with even primary votes in 10 seats, which is being reported as showing the race as close, but:
- The seats selected have an average Labor margin of 7.6%.
- The poll is ony conducted on election day, where Labor generally does better than at pre-poll.
- These figures are primary votes. While the ALP probably doesn’t do quite as well in preferences in Queensland as they do in some states, it still confuses things.
So if they are neck and neck on primary votes on election day in these marginal seats, they are probably losing as expected.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in Queensland for the 2024 state election. I will be covering the election tonight here at the Tally Room, at least as long as the website can handle the traffic. If the website collapses, I will move over to Tally Room in Exile.
Throughout the campaign, and frankly the whole year, the expectation has been that the LNP would win a large majority, but in the last few weeks there have been a number of polls showing a much closer race, although the LNP remains in the lead.
Follow along with me tonight – I expect we’ll get results from around 6:30.