This episode of New Politics looks at the key themes that are likely to shape the political landscape in 2025, a critical election year in Australia. Despite media-driven speculation of an early election in 2024, voters will head to the polls in 2025, with May being the most likely timeframe.
The pressing issues of the economy, interest rates, cost of living, and housing are set to dominate the narrative, alongside the unpredictability of Australia’s preferential voting system. While the Liberal–National Coalition holds a slight lead in opinion polls, historical trends suggest first-term governments often secure re-election, setting the stage for a complex battle between the Labor Party and the Coalition.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese faces mounting challenges, including declining approval ratings and unmet expectations of reformist leadership similar to the Whitlam and Hawke governments and his government’s struggles with political management have left openings for criticism, even as Labor’s policy performance remains relatively solid. Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has leveraged divisive rhetoric and media coverage to make the Coalition competitive. However, his lack of policy substance and avoidance of scrutiny may hinder his effectiveness under the pressures of an election campaign.
The upcoming Western Australian state election in March will act as a litmus test, potentially foreshadowing federal outcomes. While WA Labor is expected to lose some seats due to natural political corrections, its position remains strong, albeit with possible vulnerabilities in Western Australia’s federal seats.
The role of independents continues to grow, with several Liberal-held seats targeted by community candidates. High-profile departures like Paul Fletcher in Bradfield will bolster the chances of independents such as Nicolette Boele – similarly, the Senate is poised for disruption with alternative candidates like Jordan Van Den Berg (a.k.a. Purple Pingers) gaining traction. This drift from major parties reflects a broader shift in Australian politics, highlighting the increasing appeal of grassroots movements and smaller political groups. As the election approaches, Albanese and Dutton will face intense scrutiny over their leadership styles, campaign strategies, and ability to connect with a diverse electorate. With Albanese perceived as weak under sustained media pressure and Dutton relying on a media-friendly yet combative approach, the stakes couldn’t be higher. We explore the dynamics of the 2025 federal election, offering critical insights into the issues, players, and potential outcomes that will define Australia’s political future.
#auspol
Support New Politics:
@ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/newpolitics
@ Substack: https://newpolitics.substack.com
Song listing:
- ‘Good Stuff’, The B-52s.
- ‘Feels Right’, Biig Piig.
- ‘Humiliation’, The National.
Music interludes:
Support independent journalism
We don’t plead, beseech, beg, guilt-trip, or gaslight you and claim the end of the world of journalism is coming soon. We keep it simple: If you like our work and would like to support it, send a donation, from as little as $5. Or purchase one of our books! It helps to keep our commitment to independent journalism ticking over! Go to our supporter page to see the many ways you can support New Politics.
The post 2025 election countdown: the battle for Australia’s future appeared first on New Politics.