The AEC has now commenced the distribution of preferences for the seat of Calwell. Normally the AEC does not publish distribution of preference data until the count has concluded, but in recognition of the great deal of public interest the AEC has published a page where they will post the latest DoP data after each round of the count.
There are 13 candidates running, so there will be eleven counts. So far the first three counts have been conducted, with independent candidates Peach and Ragupathy and Trumpet of Patriots candidates Issa already excluded with their votes distributed. Family First candidate Bengtsson is next in line.
You would expect each round of the count to take longer, as more and more votes need to be moved.
This table shows the share of the vote for the four leading candidates on the primary vote and each subsequent round:
Independent candidate Carly Moore is off to a strong start. She has already increased her primary vote by 0.8%, whereas fellow independent Joseph Youhana is only up 0.2%, Labor is up 0.5%, and the Liberal is up 0.4%.
The first question is whether Joseph Youhana can overtake Carly Moore and make the 3CP. Right now that looks pretty unlikely, as Moore is widening her lead over Youhana.
Moore right now looks quite plausible to overtake the Liberals, and if so I think she would probably be in a position to gain a strong flow of preferences and potentially beat Labor.
I’ll keep this post updated as we learn more.